Weather Watchers
Related: About this forumRare Rain Delay at the Dogers Game Last Night
"Play was halted for 85 minutes during the sixth inning at a ballpark that hasn't had a weather postponement in 15 years." -CBS Sports.
It's very rare to get significant rainfalls in So Cal in May and there is still light to moderate rain from the LA Basin to San Diego in places. Other parts of California got significant precipitation as well and I was told last night that the higher Sierras received a foot of snow. Yay!
San Diego had 1.63" of rain yesterday. A record daily amount for the month of May. Average monthly rainfall for San Diego in May is .13". I'm quoting from memory here but that should be correct.
I think El Nino is finally kicking in down in California. A few months too late and and several $ short.
JayhawkSD
(3,163 posts)For one thing, while it seems to be in the process of strengthening, El Nino is still "weak to moderate" at this point. There is hope that it will continue to strengthen and that by next winter's rainy season it might produce results along the lines of the 1997-1998 season. They said that last year, though, and our rainy season this year was well below normal, so I'm not holding my breath.
Mainly, though, El Nino makes itself felt during the rainy season in southern California, Oct thru March mostly, because it does not modify the weather patterns but only serves to strengthen them and make storms wetter. It puts more moisture into the atmosphere, creating greater instability and more rainfall, but it does not move the jet stream.
I suspect that we are missing a bigger picture here by looking at the sea surface temperatures in the El Nino location in isolation, without considering the overall warming of the Pacific Ocean everywhere both on and below the surface. The effect of El Nino may very well depend on the sst at that location being higher relative to the rest of the ocean, and when it is higher at the same time that the rest of the ocean is also higher it might not have the same effect.
What role, for instance, does the warmer water off the southern California coast play in the rainfall patterns we are seeing now? The past couple years have seen our coastal water temps rise significantly, as southward currents have become less cold. Fish populations are moving north and it might not ought to surprise us that rain is moving south for the same reason.
Punx
(446 posts)I agree we are probably missing the bigger picture. There are so many factors (inputs) that affect the weather and climate that it is very difficult to point to any one input (temps in the Tropical Nino regions) and say that this causes that. However tropical Pacific temps and convection probably are the biggest factor in West Coast rainy season weather. I suspect that in the long run we will look back and see some of the connections with the changes in the Pacific.
The Pacific Ocean along the entire West Coast is extremely warm and has been since at least last spring/summer. Running anywhere from 1 to 4 degrees Celsius above normal (average) along the coast and west well out to sea. Here in the Pacific Northwest that has been reflected in warmer temps on the western sides of the states that closely mirror the + sea surface differences. Warm muggy nights and higher humidities. I know that a climate scientist at the University of Washington I talked to a couple of months ago agrees with the relationship.
Also, it looks to me like we may have switched to a Positive + PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in the last year as well, how does that add in? Last time this happened was 1976-77 and anyone that was on the West Coast and old enough to remember, remembers how dry that winter was across the entire West Coast. This would have been a very short negative (-) period, which is generally good for snowfall, water resources, and fish in the NW, and less so for Alaska. For those reading who don't know, a description of the PDO: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ or here: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PDO.html
We are looking at things based on our historical knowledge but with Global Warming are entering into uncharted waters. What will our climate and weather patterns look like in 5, 10, 50 years compared to today?
F4lconF16
(3,747 posts)Or as a whole, either works.
It really varies with elevation and location, but I can tell you that a foot isn't really all that much for the Sierras, except that it is very good news given the time of year and how little snow there has been this season.
I know in February 1988 that Mammoth got something along the lines of 6+ feet in one winter storm. I left town just as it was starting to really come down. Highway 395 was closed at Bishop.
I'll try to find a link for snowfall and post later.
Punx
(446 posts)Otherwise very hard to find a good map of average depths. The following graph is for Donnor Summit at ~7k feet. That's a pretty average elevation for the Sierras from Tahoe down to Kern River headwaters/Kennedy Meadows.
http://www.thestormking.com/Weather/Sierra_Snowfall/sierra_snowfall.html
F4lconF16
(3,747 posts)Thanks.
Time to head out for a job interview, btw. Got another on Monday.