N.F.L. Blueprints for Getting Out of 0-2 Holes

[JonLP24]

My post in the NFL picks reminded me of this article. It's not really a blueprint but what the teams did that started 0-2 and made the playoffs and which teams are similar.

<snip>

Since 1990, only 22 of the 184 teams (12 percent) that started the season 0-2 ultimately made the playoffs. Of course, most of those 184 teams missed the playoffs not because they lost their first two games, but because they weren’t very good. Since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002, only 11 of the 72 teams that started the season 0-2 would have made the playoffs had they won two more games.

<snip>

Made a key change (6 of the 22 teams)

Six teams made significant changes during the season, which made the team that took the field the first two weeks a different team from the one that made the playoffs.

In 1998, Glenn Foley and Rob Johnson went 3-6 as the starting quarterbacks for the Jets and the Buffalo Bills; they were replaced by the veterans Vinny Testaverde and Doug Flutie, who combined to go 19-4. Both Testaverde and Flutie made the Pro Bowl despite starting the season on the bench.

A similar story took place in Pittsburgh in 2002, as Tommy Maddox revived his career as turned the run-heavy Steelers into a more balanced and explosive offense. And, of course, Drew Bledsoe started the first two games of the season for the 2001 Patriots before Tom Brady took over for the rest of the season, setting the stage for a dynasty.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/n-f-l-blueprints-for-getting-out-of-0-2-holes/

Basically the Browns & Saints were the team that matched in most categories.

In the category of "Better to be lucky than good" in referenced the 1998 Arizona Cardinals. I remember that team vividly. It says they didn't defeat a winning team but it had a great shot in a home game vs Dallas.

It was the 1st of 2 home sellouts for the Cardinals that season and they fell behind 28-7 at half. Then they led a furious comeback and the Cardinals were inside the 10 down by 7 with about 20 seconds or so remaining. I remember a pass intended to Frank Sanders in the end zone where the Dallas defender interfered with him before the ball arrived but no penalty was called. It was one of those plays that made me wish there was instant replay but when the NFL finally did bring replay into the game, that play wouldn't have been reviewed. Anyways they got their revenge in the wild card round.

[hughee99]

1. If I remember right, the year after Buffalo's turnaround, in 1999

Flutie started most of the games and lead them to an 11-5 record and a playoff spot, where they replaced him with Rob Johnson (a sterling 10-22 for 131 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 safety) and they lost to Tennessee in the "Music City Miracle" Game.

In no regular season game that year did Flutie through for fewer yards or have a lower completion percentage. Good call Wade Phillips!

[JonLP24]

3. Flutie had one game that was slightly lower

a game against Baltimore he had 450% which is slightly lower than Johnson's 454%. He did throw for more yards than Johnson in that game (which was also his fewest output of the season) but had 155 yards off of 40 pass attempts.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlutDo00/gamelog//

[hughee99]

4. Ah, thanks, I was looking for that.

I see he did win that game, though.

[JonLP24]

5. My thoughts

I thought Flutie was great in '98 but below average or average in '99. He did win a lot a games but I feel the Wade Phillips' D was the biggest reason why which allowed the fewest yards in '99. In that Baltimore game they allowed just 200 yards and 10 points despite 3 picks by Flutie. If Flutie was on a team w/ a bad defense he wouldn't have won the game. It would be kinda like if the Buffalo special teams made a stop Rob Johnson won the game but since they didn't, he lost the game yet his performance is the same.

I understand the strategy in giving Rob Johnson a shot as he was 24/32, 8.8 YPA, 2 TDs against Indianapolis the week prior. As to if it is the wrong decision, I have no idea as there is no way to see what would have happened had Flutie started. I don't think it is a sure thing he would have played better or Buffalo would have won considering he wasn't in '98 form.

[hughee99]

6. I agree that Flutie didn't have a great year, but Johnson had at the time,

and certainly has now, a reputation as a guy who didn't "show up" for the big games or at crunch time. A capable QB in meaningless games and situations though. The decision to start Johnson in the playoffs was really made 2 weeks prior, which is why Johnson was given the start in the last game of the year. In that game, Johnson lived up to his reputation.

[Auggie]

2. The Raiders new O-Line Zone Blocking scheme is off to a slow start ...

once it clicks you'll see more explosive runs by McFadden. And that threat will help Palmer at QB.

It's still a question mark if that will translate to wins since the defense is so thin. Should play havoc with the point spreads though.