Israel/Palestine
Related: About this forumLikud Long Knives Come Out for Bibi as Poll Numbers Drop
ByJosh Marshall Published March 13, 2015, 3:06 PM EDT 10140 views
We have four more polls released today, only a handful of days out from the Israeli election. They show a small but clear and hardening lead for the Zionist Camp/Labor Party over Netanyahu's Likud. Three polls show ZC/Labor with a four-seat lead over Likud. Another shows a two-point advantage for ZC/Labor. (Here's the best aggregation of all the polls here.)
(Just after I published this post, two new polls were released, each also showing a four-seat ZC/Labor lead.)
Two points stand out in the polls. Likud is dropping and now ZC/Labor seems to be rising at least a bit. Also notable is that the center-right bloc itself seems to be under pressure.
As we discussed earlier, one of the assumptions or key focuses of this election was how the right-wing vote would divide up between Likud, Jewish Home and Yisrael Beytenu. The last of those three is Avigdor Lieberman's party. Their numbers have dropped dramatically, for a number of reasons, but largely because of a major corruption scandal. So they have been largely neutralized and are hovering right above the electoral threshold of four seats. The question has been whether Netanyahu could pull seats from the Jewish Home party to his right and bump up his numbers or whether the flow would go in the other direction.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/continuing-rough-polls-for-netanyahu
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)wins the most seats (25 by current polls), would they then form a coalition with Yesh Atid, Kulanu, Meretz? That would still leave them 10 seats short.
Would they have Shas and United Torah join them (this is unlikely IMHO as they probably would refuse to join a coalition that is led by a woman) or the United list?
Sadly, even with only 21 seats, it might still be easier for Likud to form a coalition.
I think the next electoral reform Israel needs to implement, is the 'bonus' seats system that countries like Greece have. That the party that wins the most seats, gets bonus 'at large' seats, thereby making it easier to form coalitions.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)weigh up how many seats they needs etc.
I have not read anything that suggests they want a change to be more
in line with something like Greece has, have you?
nice to see you, btw,
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)so if a party gets 3.25% of the vote they get 4 seats (120 * .0325 =3.9 round up to 4).
3.25% is the minimum needed to get in to Knesset.
The part that I am unsure of is how the 'extra' seats are given out. since obviously there are parties that don't get the minimum 3.25%, the total % of the vote for the parties that make the threshold will be under 100%.
I have not read anything about wanting to be more in line with Greece either, it was just a suggestion that rattled around in my brain and fell out on this early, rainy AM.
Nice to see you as well.
Edit
PS no party has ever won more than 56 seats in the Israel Knesset, meaning they always have to form a coalition.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)Won't be long before they vote..will be all the buzz here when we learn the results.
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)and what time will results start being announced?
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)The tweets. http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Election-Live-Blog-Follow-the-latest-updates-394059
Lahav Harkov @LahavHarkov
Knesset Channel: ZU 27 Likud 26 TJL 13 YA 12 Kulanu 10 Bennett 9 Shas 7 UTJ 6 Meretz 5 YB 5
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)ZU 27+ TJL 13 + YA 12 + Kulanu 10 +Meretz 5 = 67. But polls also show Likud with either 27 or 28 mandates. If they are tied at 27, who gets first crack at forming a coalition?
Likud 27 + YA 12 + Kulanu 10 + Bennett 9 + shas 7 +UTJ 6+YB 5 =76.
Herzog needs to convince kulanu, YA to go with them and not Likud. Both are opposed to Bibi's economic path, so hopefully that will convince them to go with Herzog.
That way the religious parties can be frozen out as well.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)making process take after the results are confirmed? Do they have a strict
time line to follow..with a specific date after the election?
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)once a party leader is directed by the president of Israel to form a coalition, he/she has 45 days to cobble together a coalition, have it approved in Knesset, and shown to the president for his/her rubber stamp.
One of the few powers that the president of Israel has, is to decide who will be given the first shot to form a coalition in the event of a dead heat for most seats.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)aranthus
(3,385 posts)It would make a statement, and it keeps Bibi out of the government.
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)but it would depend on the other parties in the coalition if they are willing to form a coalition with the United List.
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)really does not like Bibi, nor does Yair Lapid. I think that will benefit Herzog in his battle to be the one to form a coalition.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)Netanyahu claiming victory. Not sure if that is accurate or just his usual huff and puff.
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)but that does not mean he actually has. The polls are showing a dead heat.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)azurnoir
(45,850 posts)we'll see what happens
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)Gal-on congratulates Herzog on mandates, warns him from joining government with Neyanyahu.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/An-enthusiastic-Meretz-celebrates-passing-electoral-threshold-394242
Despite lackluster performance, Yisrael Beytenu meets voting threshold with 5 seats
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Despite-lackluster-performance-Yisrael-Beytenu-meets-voting-threshold-with-5-seats-394238
Shas source: both Bibi and Buji called Deri less than 30 minutes after exit polls offering to start coalition negotiations; Deri postponed till Wednesday.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Yahad-fails-to-cross-threshold-in-exit-polls-Deri-keeps-Shas-head-above-water-394240
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)2:07 a.m. The returns on voting from ballot boxes indicate that the Likud has significantly extended its lead over Zionist Union.
According to Israel Radio, officials have counted the votes of 25 percent of booths across the country. The results indicate that the Likud wins 32 Knesset seats while Zionist Union garners 25 seats.
Yesh Atid is the third-largest party with 11 seats, Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu faction wins 10 seats, the Arab List nosedives to nine seats, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox Shas movement wins eight seats, Naftali Bennett's Bayit Yehudi dips further to seven seats, while Yisrael Beytenu, which has only mustered five seats, climbs to seven.
United Torah Judaism wins six seats while Meretz rounds out the list with five seats.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Election-Live-Blog-Follow-the-latest-updates-394059
only 25% of the vote is in though.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)if Yesh Atid and kulanu refuse to form a coalition with Bibi, the best he can do at the moment is 60 votes with the religious parties and hte far right ones.
If Zionist union is willing to bring in either Shas or United Torah they can get more than 60 (but would need the united list along with Yesh Atid and Kulanu, and that might be a very difficult coalition to pull off.
I don't think Israeli law allows for a minority government. So if neither Likud or zionist union can cobble together a coalition (each would be given a separate 45 day period one after another) new elections would be called.
I think we need to hold out hope that Yesh Atid and Kulanu refuse to join a bibi led coalition. Which I think is possible considering that Moshe Kahlon and Lapid have no love lost for Bibi.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)intrigue me, but there are some major flaws to them. You can have a pure proportional system like Israel, which causes a lot of splintering, small parties holding the balance of power, etc. Or you have first past the post, where you may not have a majority of votes, but you get the majority of seats in parliament. This often happens in the UK, Germany, France (although france is a presidential/parliamentary system, where the president has a lot of power and is elected separately from parliament.)
With the exception of the last election in the UK, politics were dominated by two parties (Conservative and Labor for decades, before that Liberal and Conservative, Whig and Conservative, etc)
android fan
(214 posts)Likudniks - out of the cold....
Yesh Atid and Koolanu join forces with Zionist Union.
It'll be called Anyone but Bibi coalition
And as a surprise member - the Joint List of Arab Parties - to show that the new "unity" government - would that work? They all share some of the same common goals?
I don't know..I could be wrong...
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)4:58 a.m. With nearly 95 percent of precincts reporting before dawn on Wednesday, the Likud has emerged as the clear, undisputed victor in the elections.
According to the official up-to-the-minute tally, Likud wins 29 seats while Zionist Union comes in second at 24 seats.
The parties that follow are Joint Arab List (14); Yesh Atid (11); Kulanu (10); Bayit Yehudi (8); Shas (7); United Torah Judaism (7); Yisrael Beytenu (6); and Meretz (4).
29+8+7+7+6 =57
24+11+10+7+7+4=63 or 24+14+11+10+4=63.
Two workable coalitions for Herzog.
Bibi needs either Kahlon or Lapid to join his coalition to form a government. if both refuse to join, he will not be able to get a majority (unless for some strange reason Meretz joins him which would be hard to fathom.)
aranthus
(3,385 posts)It puts together all of the center-left and the Arab parties without any religious parties.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)Thanks for the update.
sabbat hunter
(6,838 posts)Herzog would be given a shot at forming a coalition. If he were to fail as well, then new elections would be called.