A guide to Iran's presidential election

[shaayecanaan]

A good primer on the leading three candidates:-

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/14/world/middleeast/a-guide-to-irans-presidential-election.html?_r=0

Rohani probably won't win, but you never know. Anything can happen in an Iranian election.

[delrem]

1. I don't know enough about Iran.

However I distrust US MSM and esp. the NYT w.r.t. mid-east issues. Always there's this obvious spin, even if by putting no emphasis on other sides while putting a slight emphasis on the spin-side.

At first "he is one of a few prominent politicians proposing better relations with the outside world" reads well, but on second reading what it means by "outside world" is NATO. I like the idea of an Iran that is on better terms with NATO, but not without thought or with only parsimonious thought as suggested by the whole context: "Only one of the candidates, the cleric Hassan Rowhani, a former nuclear negotiator, has even slightly different stances from the traditionalists, thus attracting some of the veterans of the now silenced Green movement." My problem is that this description is totally vacuous except for its dependence on a subjective emotional reaction to the words "Green movement". The notion "Green movement in Iran" has been sold to us as equivalent to "movement to overthrow the regime". That subjective emotional reaction is expected to be positive, so the candidate Hassan Rowhani is given a positive spin.

The US/Israel alignment has been talking up war with Iran for quite some time. In that environment only subjective emotional reactions of attraction/repulsion are required to incite the masses. In that case an objective reading of Iran won't be "on the table". Any attempt at objectivity will be shouted down with emotional expletives.

My guess is that close to 100% of Iranians will be very concerned about what is going on in Syria. Syria is, after all, the penultimate target on a list. This will factor into their vote just as much as the economic siege enforced by NATO. Quite simply I don't think a majority of Iranians will be of the "surrender" party. Most will be of the "fight this" party and will be looking for which candidates look to put the best face forward for Iran in dealing with China, Russia, the Union of South American Nations, etc. That candidate might not be Rohani.

[shaayecanaan]

2. Apparently there was a late surge for Rohani...

ironically, the purging of the other moderates seems to have helped him, by uniting reformists behind him while leaving the other conservative candidates at odds with each other.

I hope he wins, for the same reason that I was glad that Obama win: its better to have a centrist than a conservative.

[oberliner]

3. "its better to have a centrist than a conservative..."

Except that no matter what happens in this "election" the person really ruling Iran is The Supreme Leader who is the ultimate authority in the country and is as conservative as conservative gets (and is not subjected to elections of any kind).

It is frightening that you would compare what is going now on in Iran to the US elections.

[sabbat hunter]

5. technically

the Assembly of Experts can remove him.

[shaayecanaan]

6. Its the new meme from our hasbarado friends...

While Ahmadinejad was around, they were happy to portray him as a latter day Hitler with his finger on the nuclear trigger. Now that a moderate candidate is apparently leading in the elections, the Iranian presidency has suddenly become a meaningless irrelevance.

[shira]

19. The big winner is the Ayatollah. Nuke program will roll on...

...but now with a moderate face on it.

Can't really blame Persian voters for wanting someone more moderate. But ask yourself this...

Mohammad Khatami was a moderate in office for 8 years. Name some reforms under his watch. What did he accomplish in 8 years? Good luck answering...

[shaayecanaan]

20. In 2003, Khatami sent a message to the US through the Swiss

In it, he offered to distance Iran from Hezbollah, freeze its nuclear program and pursue detente with Israel in exchange for security guarantees. It had taken Khatami months to get the Supreme Leadership to support the message, which was dubbed the "grand bargain fax".

George W Bush received the fax and ignored it. It was probably his greatest foreign policy mistake.

PBS Frontline did a good doco on the fax, which you might like to watch if you ever get sick of reading circle-jerk Kahanist blogs.

[shira]

23. No concessions to West, Iran’s Khamenei tells candidates

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2013/06/04/No-concessions-to-west-Iran-s-Khamenei-tells-candidates.html

What do you expect from Bush? And it's not just him. Western leaders are idiots.

[shaayecanaan]

32. Report: Iran mulling 6-month 20% uranium enrichment freeze

Iran is considering an international proposal to suspend uranium enrichment to a fissile concentration of 20 percent for a period of six months and converting their existing stockpile of 20% enriched uranium to an oxide for medical use, Al-Monitor reported on Tuesday, citing diplomatic sources.

According to the report, Iranian nuclear experts discussed the proposal at technical talks in Istanbul last week with the P5+1 group of world powers which consists of the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany.

The Iranians, however, rejected other demands that the world powers' proposed in exchange for loosening economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic, the sources said. At the previous round of talks in Kazakhstan, the Iranians reportedly raised objections to a number of proposed steps including, suspending operations at the underground Fordow nuclear facility, allowing for enhanced inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog and shipping the country's supply of 20% enriched uranium out of the country.

According to Al-Monitor, the US may be looking at adding further incentives to sweeten the offer to Iran at the upcoming round of talks scheduled for April 5-6 in Kazakhstan.

http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Report-Iran-mulling-6-month-20-percent-uranium-enrichment-freeze-307820

[azurnoir]

12. so is it frightening that the moderate won?

well for some here it probably is at that

[Scootaloo]

16. Oh, so now Khameini's the one in charge?

Funny, to hear the locals tell it, Ahmedinejad is the one and sole voice of power in Iran.

I guess you gus just "forget" stuff like that from time to time, huh?

[azurnoir]

18. Here's what is hoped to have gone down the memory hole

I’m told that MEMRI, which has its origins in Israeli military intelligence, has put out a statement doubting that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ever issued a fatwa forbidding nuclear weapons. (MEMRI claims to be a 501(c)3 non-profit but is actually an effort to cherry-pick Middle Eastern news to present the most negative face of the Arab world to Americans so as to prejudice them in favor of Israel; in this case it is just doing propaganda).

A Reddit.com contributor has effectively answered this piece of disinformation. This posting points out that the official IRNA news agency said in 2005,

“The Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued the Fatwa that the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that the Islamic Republic of Iran shall never acquire these weapons.”

That this old posting has gone into the deep web and isn’t at the IRNA site is irrelevant. The fatwa was announced by IRNA and has been repeatedly reaffirmed by Khamenei.

http://www.juancole.com/2012/04/yes-memri-there-is-a-fatwa-from-khamenei-forbidding-nukes.html

[shira]

26. The regime appreciates your support, as well as the support of Juan Cole...

If that Fatwa were SOOOOO important, why isn't it on Khameini's website? Why hasn't it been repeated? What is the exact text?

[azurnoir]

29. yes it us or them black or white yer fer us or agin us

such a progressive view you have there

[shira]

30. just keeping it real, that's all...

What we do with the information can be either right or leftwing....

But it's certainly not progressive mimicking the Iranian regime's ultra-rightwing talking points like you do. Loved it when you guys (Juan Cole especially) denied A-jad was misinterpreted WRT wanting to destroy Israel.

[azurnoir]

31. so what's the plan for dealing now that Ahmadinejad will be gone?

should be quite interesting

[shira]

34. The plan is not to automatically assume all is better now that A-jad is gone. n/t

[azurnoir]

35. IOW confused about whether it's time for a reboot or a rehash n/t

[shira]

37. Confused about what? Maybe his 1st interview should include a few direct...

..questions WRT Iran's nuke program. See how he answers...

[azurnoir]

38. lol that's the ticket yepper........ :)

what we've been seeing here though is that the President doesn't matter, well unless he says something that can spun into nuking Tel Aviv or what ever...........

[shira]

39. All your favorite pundits wrongly predicted the Arab Spring...

...would be a good thing. You'd think they'd learn from their idiocy and not do it again, as in this case with Iran. At least until it's evident Iran is making significant reforms.

But given that the Ayatollas hand-picked the candidates, there's really no good reason to expect things will improve.

[azurnoir]

40. yawn

[shira]

41. good talk. n/t

[azurnoir]

42. IMO there's really nothing to talk about

just you squawking "you guys" and "your pundits" not really the stuff of conversation

[King_David]

28. Can you link that up for all of us to see and laugh,

I can't remember seeing DU members stating what you say they did.

[azurnoir]

33. some DUers certainly seemed to try and give that impression

or was there some other reason seeing as now it's being claimed he had no real power but here are some examples

http://www.democraticunderground.com/113418452

http://www.democraticunderground.com/113416432

http://www.democraticunderground.com/113416422

http://www.democraticunderground.com/113415617

http://www.democraticunderground.com/113414346

http://www.democraticunderground.com/11346200

and lastly

King_David (4,677 posts)

Ahmadinejad: Enemies trying to save Zionist regime

http://www.democraticunderground.com/113417873

[King_David]

43. Good links but none show DU members believe Ahmedinrjat is real power and not Mullahs

Not even the link of mine that you so valiantly portrayed.

Good effort tho, but FAIL!

[azurnoir]

44. One of those threads was your so what was your purpose in posting it?

especially seeing as how you're now claiming the position Ahmadinejad had very little power

[King_David]

45. He had as much power as the Mullahs,because he had identical policies,

That was the only reason, and if you never knew that, you do not know much about Iran.

[azurnoir]

46. oh so Ahmadinejad was as powerful as the 'mullahs' but this guy? :)

[delrem]

47. One of these days

one of these hasbarists will figure it out that Rohani is a "mullah".

then they'll go apoplectic in a totally cool chain reaction.

[azurnoir]

48. oh there ya went and blew it

[King_David]

49. I see you have problems following Iranian

Power and politics ...

Hint : Iran is not a democracy. It is a true theocracy run by the clerics with a small facade of democracy.

The president is as powerful as the mullahs allow.

That's a good start for you to begin.

If your serious about debating Iran its best you do a little research 1st , else it's difficult for us to discuss issues with those who are clueless and don't understand the basics.

Start with the protests and what the people of Iran actually want . Hint here is that with the election of a new president the people will not be satisfied that " democracy " has come to Iran and that they should give up the struggle .

Get back to me when you're able to discuss Iran 101. Meanwhile do a little research.

[azurnoir]

50. lol meanwhile I'll be entertained by the spin I'm seeing here

and it seems the 'research' I did upset you for some reason

[delrem]

7. ditto

I agree with oberliner noting that this is a theocracy. The candidates are vetted and selected for political correctness from the start. The comparison that comes to my mind is to the Vatican - tho' the comparison breaks down quickly.

It's just fact tho' that in times of great external threat, and Iran is indeed threatened and has been in an escalating way for quite some time, with the US even today showing that it's *very* intent on ensuring "regime change" in Syria (with it writ, in bold, that Iran is next), people will hunker down and seek security first. Prolonged external threats, particularly serious ones that Iran faces, aren't conductive to the slow, gradual and peaceful movement to the left, to enlightened openness. The opposite in fact. Western support for the "green movement" might have been a bit more credible if it weren't accompanied by insistent western threats of war. But accompanied by those threats, that same western support for the "green movement" only served to discredit it.

I'm certainly hopeful that the new spokesman is more diplomatic than Ahmadinejad....

[King_David]

27. Oh come on , don't be so modest,

You know as much about Iran as you do about The Jewish State.

[sabbat hunter]

4. if it is like the last election

the one who the Supreme Leader wants as president will win the election.

[delrem]

8. Does Iran use black box voting machines?

Or does it use the punch-out-chad method?
Both being proven methods for getting a fair and just result. Unlike those Venezuelans and Iranians, who don't elect the US's favorite candidate and so who obviously cheat.

[sabbat hunter]

9. They use the

stuff the ballot box/toss the ballots that they don't like method

Just look at 2009.

[delrem]

10. That's propaganda/speculation

Same shit used against Venezuela.

[azurnoir]

11. So I guess 'they' must have wanted Rohani to win huh? :)

[oberliner]

13. "Rohani probably won't win..."

You really have your finger on the pulse!

[shaayecanaan]

14. I'm happy to be proven wrong in this instance

as I'm sure are you. No doubt you are crying salt tears of joy at this emphatic endorsement of a moderate voice by the Iranian people.

[delrem]

15. I hope there isn't a concentrated effort to discredit him, to find some sentence said in the past...

More and more I discredit political rhetoric and look toward "fact on the ground", the stuff of a "reality based community".
I don't think there's a match between "western" political rhetoric and fact on the ground w.r.t. Ahmadinejad.

Consider Ahmadinejad's worst rhetorical moment and compare it to Netanyahu's worst moment. I guess Netanyahu's was the eternal moment when he stood before the UN with a Wile. E. Coyote bomb diagram and explained his intentions toward Iran. Did any country walk out on it?

Consider the difference between "a ragtag army of Libyan rebels" and the actuality of who those "rebels" were.

Consider the fact of Academi's incredible flowering in the mid-east after Iraq-2.
Consider the money from the GCC that flows to Academi and like assets in the name of a Syrian "liberation" as orchestrated by "friends of Syria". Consider the confluence between Academi and other private contractors with an incredibly pumped up case of artificial (externally controlled) sectarian war. Finally, consider how al Qaeda actually factors in.

[sabbat hunter]

25. Ahmandinejads

worse rhetorical moment. He has had so many. Like his holocaust denials, his calls to eliminate the "zionist regime".

[shira]

36. You discredited him yourself when you wrote...

I agree with oberliner noting that this is a theocracy. The candidates are vetted and selected for political correctness from the start.

Just as the Ayatollahs vetted & selected A-jad, they did the same with this "reformer".

[Scootaloo]

17. Sorta reminds me of that guy claiming Tzipi Livni's party would win by a large margin

Whatever happened to him, anyway?

[shaayecanaan]

21. I remember the last Israeli election being described

as an event of "seismic" proportions. In fact, it was impossible to even conceive of a greater sea change than that which took place at the last election in Israel. So we were told. Jeez, someone must have been hitting the sauce pretty hard that night.

[LeftishBrit]

22. Actually it seems that he did win ... unless they find some way of 'Florida'-ing it.

I don't see much hope of massive progress with any candidate, unless the whole system changes. The ayatollahs aren't going to give up any power very willingly. But Rohani is better than the other candidates.

[sabbat hunter]

24. the supreme leader

still has final say over most things, including the armed forces

considering what happened last election, the mullahs probably thought better of rigging this one, as it could have meant their demise.