Nine reasons Obama is going to win on Iran. The first: Netanyahu

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

http://mondoweiss.net/2015/07/obama-going-netanyahu


In the last 24 hours, it has become clear that President Obama is going to win his Iran deal inside the American government, maybe overwhelmingly; that the Congress is going to fail to veto it by a large margin. And that the fencesitters will fall into line with the president. Here are the reasons for my confidence:

1. Benjamin Netanyahu. Obama is now running against Netanyahu on this deal and it is a winning strategy. He uses his name again and again. Chris Matthews said the other night that Americans don’t like him. Opposition to the deal is now firmly associated with Netanyahu, and this is a great thing for the battle. “Can you imagine the politics of this deal if Israel had a sophisticated, attractive, eloquent leader?” James North said to me today.

2. Barack Obama. The late bloomer is in the springtime of his presidency. His confidence, his sense of the moment– the way he took on the critics of the deal in his press conference on Wednesday may have changed everything. Give me everything you got, he said, and two or three times mentioned Netanyahu in shooting the questions down. The anger he showed when Major Garrett said he was “content” to leave four American prisoners in Iran– and the intelligence he showed when he explained that linking the prisoners to the deal would have been a mistake — we are seeing Obama in full, and he is becoming a great leader. (Also did you see the way he turned on a reporter’s question in the El Reno prison in Oklahoma yesterday to say, There but for the grace of God go I, and many of you reporters too, because we made the same mistakes as these prisoners did, but had a support system they lacked– incredible).

3. The American people. It is obvious to anyone who has their ear to the ground that a large majority of the American people want this deal, want a new chapter in the Middle East that does not include drone assassinations and people they know coming home with brain injuries and prosthetic limbs.

[DonViejo]

1. Excellent article and analysis! Thank you for posting it.

[oberliner]

2. So much for the "Israel controls US foreign policy" nonsense

The "power of the Israel lobby" is greatly exaggerated.

For what reason - I wonder?

[Hydra]

3. It wasn't an exaggeration

Bibi overplayed his ridiculously strong hand by running behind President Obama to the GOP for a faster track to war. That knife in the back freed him to ignore Bibi and AIPAC to make an agreement with Iran that did not require RW Israeli approval. Even so, there is a huge sop in the works to placate Bibi and his thugs, so maybe this isn't as much a change as direction as it seems.

[oberliner]

4. It is a ridiculous exaggeration

US foreign policy is not controlled by Israel.

[Hydra]

5. Of course it isn't

But the amount of weight they have in affecting our decisions in the region is far beyond anything that should even be considered...not unlike the house of Saud or Goldman Sachs.

[oberliner]

6. OK - now I get where you are coming from

Missed it the first time. Thanks for making things clear.

[Hydra]

7. NP

I honestly don't know the whole story there, so I can't say anything more than "There's something wrong there." I honestly don't think they pull our strings so much as they take us where "we&quot moneyed interests) wanted to go anyway, but it's disturbing what Bibi gets away with and somehow he comes out with us taking him out to dinner afterward.

[Little Tich]

8. The fact that there's substantial opposition to the Iran deal, shows that the pro-Israel lobby is

still strong, IMHO.

I have a definite feeling that If Israel would have OK'd the deal, there would have been little opposition to it.

[geek tragedy]

9. Somewhere between 55-65% will vote however

Netanyahu wants them to.

The deal is purportedly safe only because it takes 2/3 in both houses to override a veto. And there is still a decent chance they'll override.

[6chars]

10. they won't override

dems in seats where they are concerned about losing elections over this will have permission from party leaders to vote against it and enough will vote or it that it is veto proof.

[geek tragedy]

11. Schumer, Cardin, Coons aren't in any danger

but they're almost locks to vote against it.

[6chars]

12. same idea

they won't alienate their supporters and can tell them they did what they could. this is just a game both sides play when they want to pass (or kill) something controversial.

[geek tragedy]

13. There's quite a few Democrats who are eager to either show how 'tough' they are or

who want war or who will just vote however Netanyahu and AIPAC want them to vote or who are afraid to vote with Obama against Republicans.

Some of them fit into more than one of those categories.

I think we're looking at 64 votes to override a veto right now. Which is pretty perilous.