"Middle East Eye" LIVE BLOG on YEMEN CRISIS as Events Unfold

[KoKo]

(Photos, Videos,Tweets, etc... If anyone is interested in following this)

LIVE BLOG: Saudi and Arab allies bomb Houthi positions in Yemen
#YemenCrisis


As Saudi Arabia and Allies Continue Airstrikes, Sorrow and Rage in Yemen
by Tom Finn

Saudi Arabia discusses deploying as many as 150,000 troops and 100 warplanes in operation receiving coordination from the Pentagon and supported by Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain

Thursday 26 March 2015 09:09 GMT
Last update:
March 26 Mar 2015 14:14 GMT

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/live-blog-saudi-and-arab-allies-bomb-houthi-positions-yemen-1521000548

Round-up of events of overnight:

- Global oil prices rise by 6 percent as Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies launch sweeping military operation

- Saudi officials considering deploying as many as 150,000 troops and 100 warplanes to operation that includes Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain

- US providing “logistical and intelligence support” to the Saudi-led forces
----------

26th Mar
14:14
Countries not supporting Saudi Arabia-led actions in Yemen

Although the Saudi Arabia-led bombings in Yemen have commanded wide regional support, a number of countries have come out firmly against the operation.

Iran

The Iranians have been the most prominent backers - politically and, allegedly, militarily - of the Houthis in Yemen and attacked the Saudi bombardment and called for an immediate end to the operation.

Syria

The Syrian state news agency SANA described Saudi's actions as "blatant aggression".

Russia

A staunch ally of Iran, Russia has urged the Yemeni factions to come to negotiations.

"We believe it is highly important that all parties to the conflict in Yemen and their foreign allies stop any military actions and abandon any efforts to achieve their goals in a military way. We believe that severe contradictions in Yemen can be settled only through a nationwide dialogue," the Russian Foreign ministry said on Thursday.

Lebanon

A highly divided country, the Lebanese Communist Party has, at least, publicly come out in opposition to both the Saudi intervention and Iran's influence in the country.

Oman

The closest country to Iran in the Gulf, it was the only Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member not to join the anti-Houthi coalition. So far they have not officially provided an explanation for their absence.
--------

26th Mar
13:07
Four Egypt warships enter Suez en route to Gulf of Aden: canal officials

Four Egyptian warships have entered the Suez Canal en route to the Gulf of Aden.

According to AFP, Egyptian canal officials said that the ships will take part in operations "to secure" the strategic waters that control southern access to the Suez Canal.

There has been fear that the Houthis might gain access to the Bab al-Mandab strait, a vital corridor through which much of the world’s maritime trade passes.

Egypt is one ten nations including Sudan that pledged military support for the Saudi-led campaign against the Houthis.

More Updates at:

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/live-blog-saudi-and-arab-allies-bomb-houthi-positions-yemen-1521000548

[Fred Sanders]

1. Anything led by Nazi Saudi should be opposed.

Not for black hat/white hat thinking, but that nation's leaders are dressed head to foot in darkness and evil.

Iran does not want nuclear weapons to launch an offence on Jewish Israel, it wants them to defend against the Arab Sunni dictator family-run states armed to the teeth by America...UAE was the world's fourth largest arms purchaser in 2014.

Bahrain is a prison camp...Egypt is a prison camp....Saudi is a prison camp.

[bemildred]

2. Iran-Saudi proxy war in Yemen explodes into region-wide crisis

---

The Iran-Saudi struggle

Iran is widely believed to have trained Houthi fighters and supplied arms since the insurgency began. But this is flatly denied in Tehran. Iran has nevertheless kept up a constant barrage of criticism of Saudi and western efforts to forge a political settlement in Yemen. It appears to see the country in terms of a region-wide struggle for power and influence between itself and Saudi Arabia, a struggle that in turn reflects the Sunni-Shia schism across the Muslim world.

Its first reaction to Saudi-led air strikes overnight was to condemn them as “US-backed aggression”. The foreign ministry in Tehran described the intervention as a dangerous step with unpredictable consequences. “Iran wants an immediate halt to all military aggressions and air strikes against Yemen and its people … Military action in Yemen, which faces a domestic crisis … will further complicate the situation … and will hinder efforts to resolve the crisis through peaceful ways,” the ministry spokeswoman, Marzieh Afkham, said.

It seems possible that the success of the Houthis’ drive south, and the dramatic Saudi reaction in mobilising an international intervention, has taken Iran by surprise. It is unclear how much control Tehran exercises over the rebels.

The long-running rebellion has been a useful, low-cost way for Iran to keep the Saudis off-balance and under pressure in the regional power battle. Now the puppet may have broken loose from the puppeteers. Iran is facing off against Saudi Arabia on other fronts in Syria, the Gulf and not least in Iraq, where the Shia-led government in Baghdad is widely seen to be under Tehran’s influence.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/26/iran-saudi-proxy-war-yemen-crisis

[KoKo]

10. Chilling...from the Guardian Article:

US involvement

The Saudi move has been strongly backed by the US, Riyadh’s principal ally, which is providing “logistical and intelligence support”. It is inconceivable that the Saudis’ stated plan to launch a ground offensive into Yemen employing 150,000 troops would be under contemplation without prior American agreement and support.

As yet, American forces do not appear to be directly involved. But the fact that the Saudis have given the name “Storm of Resolve” to their air operation in Yemen recalls another big joint operation involving US and Saudi ground forces, Operation Desert Storm, the 1991 war to drive Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi forces out of Kuwait.

The Saudi decision to unveil the international coalition in Washington suggests that the Obama administration, rather than the normally risk-averse regime in Riyadh, may be the driving force behind the intervention.

The US also sees this fight as part of a much bigger, strategic struggle with Iran. But little in the Middle East is straightforward. In another regional theatre of war, the Americans find themselves fighting on the same side as the Iranians, using their air power to support Iranian-backed Shia militia attacking Islamic State forces in the Iraqi city of Tikrit.

Incongruous, too, is the prospect of John Kerry, the US secretary of state, meeting his Iranian counterpart this week in Lausanne to try to seal a nuclear deal with Tehran at the same time as the two countries take drastically opposite sides over Yemen. By dramatising the confrontation with Iran, the Saudis may be sending a not so oblique message to Washington that the nuclear deal, which they oppose, is dangerous and that Tehran is not to be trusted.

If so, they will have Israel’s wholehearted backing. Other western and global powers may be drawn in as the crisis unfolds. The Saudi-led intervention has had an immediate, negative impact on world markets, and drove up the overnight oil price by 6%. Import-dependent China was quick to express its concern, though oil-producing Russia (and Iran) will be pleased to see energy prices rising.


---------------
An interesting, but curious, warning comment from the EU about this mess from the Al Jazeera article you posted:

Iran warns of bloodshed as Saudi-led forces bomb Yemen
Houthi rebels say least 18 people killed in air strikes in Sanaa, as Iran warns violence could spread across the region.

In a statement following the strikes, the White House said that the US was coordinating military and intelligence support with the Saudis but not taking part directly in the strikes.

The European Union, however, opposed the strikes with the EU High Representative and Vice President Federica Mogherini saying the operation "dramatically worsened the already fragile situation" and "risk having serious regional consequences."

"I'm convinced that military action is not a solution," she said, calling for an immediate return to negotiations to resolve the conflict.

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/03/iran-warns-bloodshed-saudi-led-forces-bomb-yemen-150326103728438.html

[bemildred]

11. It has the potential to become that "regional war", it does.

I don't think the Houthis take orders from anybody.

We seem to be following the new "our bombs, your boots" policy.

Don't be surprised if you see the Houthis invade the Saudis, especially if they can arrange some air support.

[KoKo]

12. but...

where the air support come from for the Houthis?

[bemildred]

13. I believe they own some air bases now, and have the loyalty of parts of the Yemeni military.

Edit: and they have been known to fight the Saudis before, and to give a good account of themselves in doing so.

[KoKo]

14. I wondered, because of the reports of the 100 air strikes...

It may have been Saudi & Allies boasting but they claimed to have taken out the Iranian built air missile defenses and the barracks of the "rebels." Would figure they would target any planes Yemen has and destroy the air fields at the same time. But, maybe even that many airstrikes couldn't destroy it all and the strikes were mostly a harsh warning.

[bemildred]

15. You remember Baghdad Bob?

The Saudis are afraid, for good reasons.

The Houthis cannot wait, they don't have the sort of allies who can support them while they get their shit together, they are going to have to go after the Saudis soon, and they have allies in Saudi Arabia right there along the Red Sea coast too, restive Shi'ia allies.

That said, the Houthis may or may not be able to mount an air war. If they don't, I think they are going to be in trouble, because the Saudis will, and it's a long way to Riyadh without air cover.

[KoKo]

16. Had to refresh my memory on "Baghdad Bob"

I didn't realize how prophetic he was. I just remember his name floating around on CNN or somewhere and being ridiculed..but, when I searched I found this:

'Baghdad Bob' and His Ridiculous, True Predictions
Ten years later, Iraq's insane-sounding information minister turns out to be quite the soothsayer.

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/03/baghdad-bob-and-his-ridiculous-true-predictions/274241/

[bemildred]

17. Well we know how it is with forbidden ideas and opinions.

And you know quite well what I think of the veracity of government spokespersons and governments in general. They are not only full of shit but consider it their moral duty to be full of shit.

[bemildred]

3. Shadowy role of Yemen's former president in slide to war

RIYADH, March 26 (Reuters) - When Saudi Arabian jets struck Houthi positions in Yemen on Thursday they also hit forces loyal to a key figure who many Yemenis believe has orchestrated the present crisis from the shadows: former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Army units loyal to Saleh have fought alongside the Shi'te Houthi militiamen, often in civilian dress, as they swept southwards through Yemen's highlands in recent weeks to advance on the port of Aden, where President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi is based.

Saleh's continuing ability to deploy forces and take a seat at any negotiating table will prove pivotal to Yemen's future given the former president's wide support base in the army and bureaucracy.

However, the coming weeks may determine the fate of Yemen's arch survivor, who once likened ruling his country to "dancing on the heads of snakes" and who outlasted numerous enemies by repeatedly proving the least-worst option for foreign powers.

http://www.trust.org/item/20150326131634-ouwfk/

[bemildred]

4. Saudis seen short of options to change tide in Yemen's war

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — The collapse of Yemen's government in the face of a rebel offensive leaves Saudi Arabia with no easy way of fulfilling a pledge to stand by its ally.

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies started bombing Shiite Houthi targets in Yemen Thursday. They launched "the military operations in support of the people of Yemen and their legitimate government," Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. Adel al- Jubeir said in a statement.

Shiite Houthis have advanced into the southern stronghold of Yemen's President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf's main Sunni power, says the Houthis are tools of its Shiite rival Iran, and has vowed to do what's necessary to halt them.

That resolve may stop short of sending troops against an enemy that has bloodied them in the past, analysts say. Three months of clashes on the border starting in late 2009 left more than 100 Saudi soldiers dead.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2015/03/26/261087/saudis-seen-short-of-options-to.html

[bemildred]

5. Saudi Arabia forms international coalition, launches war in Yemen against Iran-backed rebels

While the White House was focused on lashing out at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in order to soothe the wounded egos in the administration after Israeli voters soundly rejected the will of President Barack Obama, the Saudis were going about securing their borders and their region. During a snap press conference on Wednesday, The Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States revealed that it has assembled a ten-member international coalition of Arab states for the purpose of military intervention in Yemen to restore the President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi’s government.

With that, Riyadh closed Yemeni airspace and began to pound targets inside the country linked to the Iran backed-Shiite Houthi militia and the deposed former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

This was predictable. The Saudis, the Egyptians, and just about every other member of this Sunni-dominated coalition of Arab nations have been growing increasingly uncomfortable with Iran’s ever-increasing regional influence. On Wednesday, the president of Yemen fled the country, the government-in-exile that he led in the Yemeni city of Aden collapsed, and the fall of that city to the Houthis appeared imminent.

If Aden fell to the Shiite rebel group, it would create a set of circumstances that the Saudis and the West would find unacceptable. The fall of the Red Sea port of Aden to an Iran-backed militia imperils the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical narrow sea lane used to transit oil out of the Saudi-dominated Red Sea, around the Horn of Africa, and into the Indian Ocean. If Aden fell, the Gulf of Aden would be accessible by Iranian naval forces, and it would be conceivable that the Islamic Republic’s navy could transit anti-ship mines or missiles into the area in the event of war with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh simply couldn’t allow that to happen.

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/03/26/saudi-arabia-forms-international-coalition-launches-war-in-yemen-against-iran-backed-rebels/

[bemildred]

6. As Saudi Arabia and Allies Continue Airstrikes, Sorrow and Rage in Yemen

Airstrikes led by Saudi Arabia, and supported by other members of Gulf Cooperating Council and the U.S. government, continued to hit Yemen on Thursday as the situation in one of the world's most impoverished, yet strategically important countries continues to unravel amid what can only be described now as all-out war.

Reports indicates that a first wave of bombings overnight which resulted in a number of civilian deaths—including entire families trapped in flattened houses—have spurred widespread anger in Sanaa and other targeted cities, even among members of the population opposed to the Houthi rebels who have now wrested control of much of the country from President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, whose whereabouts remain hard to establish.

The White House, reports Reuters, has said it is actively supporting the operation and President Obama has authorized U.S. "logistical and intelligence support" for the bombing campaign. However, according National Security Council spokeswoman, U.S. forces are not involved in direct military action in Yemen.

The Houthi-controlled ministry of health said that at least 18 civilians were killed and 24 were injured after airstrikes pummeled the capital city of Sanaa. According to Al-Jazeera English, strikes were also reported on targets in the Malaheez and Hafr Sufyan regions of Saada province, a main Houthi stronghold on the border with Saudi Arabia.

http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/03/26/saudi-arabia-and-allies-continue-airstrikes-sorrow-and-rage-yemen

[bemildred]

7. . nt

[bemildred]

8. Egypt officials: Ground operation planned in Yemen

SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt (AP) -- Egyptian security and military officials say Saudi Arabia and Egypt will lead a ground operation in Yemen against Shiite rebels and their allies after a campaign of airstrikes to weaken them.

Three senior officials tell The Associated Press that forces would enter by land from Saudi Arabia and by sea from the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. They said Thursday that other nations will also be involved.

They would not specify troop numbers or say when the operation would start, only that it would be after airstrikes weaken the rebels and allied forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

They say the offensive aims to push the rebels into negotiations on power sharing. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the press.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_YEMEN?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-03-26-10-45-54

[bemildred]

9. Iran warns of bloodshed as Saudi-led forces bomb Yemen

Saudi air strikes on Shia rebels in Yemen have triggered a furious reaction from regional rival Iran, with top officials warning that military action could spill into other countries.

Saudi Arabia said that a coalition consisting of 10 countries, including members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), had begun air strikes at 2am local time on Thursday, targeting Houthi positions in the capital, Sanaa.

According to Al Jazeera sources, the strikes carried out by 100 jets from Saudi and its coalition, have destroyed Iranian-made missile launchers in the capital Sanaa.

Houthi military barracks and air bases controlled by the rebels were also reportedly destroyed, Fayez al-Duweiri, a retired Jordanian general and defence analyst, told Al Jazeera.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/03/iran-warns-bloodshed-saudi-led-forces-bomb-yemen-150326103728438.html

[bemildred]

18. Yemen Houthi forces gain first foothold on Arabian Sea - residents

(Reuters) - Yemen's Houthi militia and allied army units seized the southern city of Shaqra in Abyan province on Friday, residents told Reuters, gaining their first foothold on the Arabian Sea.

Their entry into the city means they control all the land entries to the port of Aden, some 100 km (60 miles) to the southwest, which is the last base of their embattled enemy, President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.

During a week of intense fighting with the president's loyalists, the Houthis have grabbed the Red Sea port of al-Mukha to Aden's northwest, and the city's northern outskirts, suggesting Aden is danger, despite a second day of Saudi-led airstrikes against Houthi forces.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/27/yemen-security-seaboard-idUSL6N0WT3Q820150327?rpc=401

[bemildred]

19. Houthi Forces Move on Southern Yemen, Raising Specter of Regional Ground War

CAIRO — Forces aligned with the Iranian-backed Houthi movement continued their advance into areas of southern Yemen on Friday, as Saudi Arabia conducted a second day of airstrikes intended to stop them.

The Houthis’ continued advance in the face of heavy airstrikes has raised the possibility of the Saudi-led coalition’s deploying ground troops — a move that would continue the Yemeni civil war’s escalation toward a regional battle.

The Saudi government has said it has no plans to send troops, but declined to rule out the possibility. On Thursday, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, whose government depends heavily on financial aid from Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf monarchies, said Cairo was prepared to send troops “if necessary.”

Residents and local news reports said Friday that the Houthi-aligned forces were fighting in the streets of Aden, the southern port town where the Saudi-backed president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, had until recently prepared to make his last stand.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/28/world/middleeast/houthi-forces-move-on-southern-yemen-raising-specter-of-regional-ground-war.html

[bemildred]

20. Saudi Arabia praises US for airstrike campaign in Yemen

The Saudi ambassador in Washington, Adel al-Jubeir, said the US had been “very supportive” of the Saudi-led airstrike campaign in Yemen both politically and logistically.

He says the kingdom was “very pleased” with the level of co-ordination with the US.

Mr al-Jubeir spoke after meetings with State Department officials.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/saudi-arabia-praises-us-for-airstrike-campaign-in-yemen-669356.html

[KoKo]

24. Okay....there we are...behind the screen.

Last edited Fri Mar 27, 2015, 06:39 PM - Edit history (1)

Drones in Yemen and now the Saudi Ambassador is "very pleased" with our backing in Yemen . Of course he is. Saudi Arabia has much to be pleased about. We've done much dirty work for them. Sad to see it continuing...but, it's about "old ties," farther back than even "9/11" where family got flown out while rest of Americans were locked down. The ties go deep.

[bemildred]

21. The breathtaking beauty of Yemen, a war-torn land

Yemen, the poorest country in the Middle East, came even closer to an all-out-war this week in a particularly complex conflict.

There are lots of complicated Yemeni rivalries at the heart of this conflict. But, essentially, local rebels, known as Houthis, are fighting the president who recently fled to neighboring Saudi Arabia. And there are now fears that this local conflict could turn into more region-wide sectarian hostilities.

On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia began bombing rebel positions in support of Yemen's embattled president. Iran, a Shiite-dominated country and a chief rival of Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia, reportedly supports the rebels.

The United States, meanwhile, is supporting Saudi Arabia with logistics and military intelligence. American officials have long argued that Yemen is home to one of al-Qaeda's most dangerous branches, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

http://mashable.com/2015/03/27/yemen-photos/

[bemildred]

22. Yemen's port of Aden under threat with enemy at the gates

ADEN, March 27 (Reuters) - As Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies stage air strikes against Shi'ite Muslim militiamen threatening to topple Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, the southern port city of Aden shudders from within.

Hadi's supporters are fighting street battles with pockets of militiamen and allied army units who have penetrated the city's northern suburbs, with at least 16 dead in total.

Rumours of Houthi sleeper cells abound and a curfew has been ordered to stop rampant looting.

As Aden's security wobbles, the Arabs' intervention may have come too late to save their ally Hadi's last refuge.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/27/yemen-security-aden-idUSL6N0WS5YU20150327?rpc=401

[bemildred]

23. Muqtada Sadr Warns Saudi Arabia to Immediately Halt Attacks on Yemen

Senior Iraqi cleric Seyed Muqtada al-Sadr warned Riyadh to immediately call off its invasion of Yemen or wait for serious consequences of its move.

Muqtada al-Sadr said in a statement on Friday that nations should decide their fate independently, stressing that the Saudi-led offensive against Yemen is a clear instance of foreign meddling in the Muslim country's internal affairs.

"It [Saudi invasion of Yemen] is at odds with Islamic-Arabic unity," he further added.

Muqtada al-Sadr said that Saudi Arabia ought to put an instant end to the invasion of Yemen, noting that so far dozens of civilians have been killed by the Saudi-led strikes.

http://www.abna24.com/english/service/middle-east-west-asia/archive/2015/03/27/679355/story.html

[bemildred]

25. M.K. Bhadrakumar responds: It suits everyone to pretend this is a solo Saudi act

For KoKo.

It suits everyone to pretend this is a solo Saudi act. Without tacit American consent, this act is inconceivable. In all probability the air strikes in Yemen depend on US intelligence inputs. Two, a GCC coalition is already at work in Bahrain and this is not the first time that the Saudis have created the illusion of collective security. Three, Saudi money prompts other Arab states to lend their name to the ‘coalition’, but the hardcore players are Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. So much for the unity of the Sunnis. Period. Four, Turkey and Saudi Arabia cannot have a meeting of minds because Turkey never accepted the British puppet being propped up as the Custodian of the Holy Places in succession to the Caliph. Now, the mutual dislike is far too well-known to be narrated. Five, it is all Israeli propaganda — and the version of the compliant western press — that Erdogan is in deep trouble, et al. He has many options other than Saudi Arabia even if he is with his back against the wall. To my mind, he is going strong and will continue with his anti-Israel, anti-American posturing which endears him to the regional audience. Turkey will never intervene in Yemen and Erdogan is going ahead with his visit to Iran.

it is useful to refresh memory that Yemen and Saudi Arabia have scores to settle. Iran may not have to do much to see that the Saudis end up in a quagmire. I feel Iran anticipates such an eventuality. Iran will never get involved directly in Yemen. Historically, Iran’s relations with Yemen have been patchy. But Yemen matters to Iran because Shi’ite empowerment in yet another country brings the tsunami to the Saudi doorstep. By the way, the Houthis are hardened fighters and they will be fighting for their homeland. They don’t need Iranian advisors. They will be highly motivated. They have a long border with Saudi Arabia. Besides, Yemeni tribal politics is incredibly complex. As you know, Saudis had thought that former President Ali Abdullah Saleh was their man, but now they realise that he is with the Houthis. How fast the alignments changed! As for the Pakistani role, to my mind (and information), Bruce Riedel didn’t read the tea leaves correctly as regards Nawaz Sharif’s summons to travel to Riyadh post-haste a month ago.The Sharif family has massive business interests in Saudi Arabia and Sharif is in no position to defy the Saudi diktat. Apart from Pakistan, there is no other participant who is capable of fighting a protracted guerilla war. Kuwait, UAE, Tunisia, Jordan? You must be joking. Egypt is barely coping with the Sinai. And even for Pakistan, once the body bags begin returning to Pakistan, it remains to be seen how long Sharif can remain impervious to Pakistan’s own interests. Money cannot have the final say. The only solution will be a UN mediation to have a consensus reached on power-sharing, which is what Iran and Russia are aiming at. But if the Saudis press ahead, there is going to be big trouble ahead. And for a UN role, US will have to take Russian help. That will be a bitter pill to swallow for Washington.

http://atimes.com/2015/03/m-k-bhadrakumar-responds-it-suits-everyone-to-pretend-this-is-a-solo-saudi-act/

[bemildred]

26. Norman Bailey responds: The final outcome of the Yemen situation is far from clear

This is a continuation of hundreds of years of Ottoman-Persian, Sunni-Sh’ia conflict, interrupted only by significant Western presence in the Middle East after World War I and the rigorously secular Pahlavi dynasty in Iran. For the very first time the hugely expensive Saudi air force will be put to the test. It should have no problem prevailing since the Houthis have no air force, but as we know, air attacks alone will not permanently affect the situation on the ground. Eventually the Saudis are likely to have to send in ground troops, also magnificently equipped after tens of billions spent on it by the Saudi government. Nevertheless, this will be done only with great reluctance, since it will require withdrawing troops from the northern frontier, leaving the way open for Islamic State (IS) incursions, some of which have already occurred in a minor fashion. It will also make the Jordanians very nervous. Saudi air and Egyptian naval force should be able to achieve a standoff, but a definitive defeat of the Houthis will require ground troops. Iran may well send in hundreds of “advisors” to help out, but it is already extended in Iraq. In short, the final outcome of the Yemen situation is not as clear as David seems to think. Could the Saudis win? Sure, depending on what you mean by win. The Houthis will not disappear and it is unlikely that KSA will want to stay in place forever. Will IS try to take advantage of the situation? Absolutely, if only to divert attention from its increasingly stressed situation in Iraq and Syria. A possible outcome might be an agreement with a restored Sunni government in Yemen to host a permanent presence of KSA or Gulf State military forces. Of course, if Pakistan sends ground troops the situation changes fundamentally, but Pakistan, despite having a sizable army, is fully engaged on its northwest frontier and withdrawal of troops to be deployed so far away in an area of no strategic significance to the Pakistanis seems to me unlikely. Again, a few “advisers” or “trainers”, but more than that I don’t see.

http://atimes.com/2015/03/norman-bailey-responds-the-final-outcome-of-the-yemen-situation-is-far-from-clear/

[KoKo]

28. a bit more....

Thanks! It's 36 degrees here..and lacking fun Spring outside activities to do.....I thought I'd try to increase my knowledge about Pakistan.

Prompted me to spend some time reading a looooong Wiki on Sharif and his fascinating background with influence and control in Pakistan for decades competing with the Bhuttos. Plus, the public policy switches in Pakistan from Nationalization to Privatization back and forth for decades along with with Sharif and his brother in and out of power but increasing their wealth and control. He's an interesting Oligarch and has seemed to try to do "some good" for the people through the years but his Neo-lib/Privatization policies didn't seem to work so well for him or for Pakistan. He is supposedly tweaking his policy these days.

This at the Wiki was interesting going along with the Bhadrakumar article about Saudi connections and possible intervention in Yemen. I hope that Saudi's do end up in a quagmire in Yemen and that a peaceful solution can be found without more violence, dislocation and destruction.

----------------

Nawaz Sharif (update)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nawaz_Sharif
Saudi Arabia

Sharif is said to enjoy exceptionally close ties with senior members of the Saudi royal family. On 2 April 2014, Pakistan Today reported that Pakistan will sell JF-17 Thunder jets to Saudi Arabia, after the kingdom had given a grant of $1.5 billion to Pakistan in early 2014.[215][216] On 15 February 2014 Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud arrived in Pakistan to meet Sharif where he vowed to enhance work between the two countries towards common issues to serve their both their interests regionally and internationally.[217] Sharif traveled to Saudi Arabia to spend last 10 days of Ramadan, On 26 July 2014, King Abdullah said Saudi Arabia would always stand by Pakistan, its leadership and people, after an hour-long meeting with Sharif at his Riyadh. Sharif also met Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, while Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud refereed Pakistan as his 'second home'.[218]

On 15 March 2015, Al-Monitor reported that the Salman of Saudi Arabia wanted firm assurances from Sharif that Pakistan would align itself with Saudi Arabia and its Sunni Arab allies against Iran, especially in the proxy war now underway in Yemen. Salman specifically wanted a Pakistani military contingent to deploy to the kingdom to help defend the vulnerable borders, Sharif has reluctantly decided not to send troops to Saudi Arabia for now. Sharif promised closer counter-terrorism and military cooperation but no troops for the immediate future.[219]
Russia

On 20 November 2014, during the visit of Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu led 41 member high-level delegation, Pakistan and Russia signed sign an agreement on military cooperation. Shoygu held in-depth talk with Sharif, after wards Sharif promised to promote a multi-dimensional relations with Russia.[220] The meeting came months after Russia had lifted an embargo on supplying weapons and military hardware to Pakistan, starting with Mil Mi-24 helicopters.[221]

[Dems to Win]

27. Dangerous situation

Thanks to both KoKo and bemildred for the informative links

[KoKo]

29. Thanks for reading....!

I'm always surprised there's so little interest in Foreign Policy here on DU out in the main forums. So thanks for taking the time!

[KoKo]

30. "Turkey's siding with Saudis in Yemen crisis further sours Iran ties"

Turkey's siding with Saudis in Yemen crisis further sours Iran ties
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Erdogan fires off salvo against Iranaccusation is that Iran has moved into Iraq, as well as consistently backing Assad in Syria, and that it has used the fight against Daesh as a means of boosting its presence in Northern Iraq.

This line, and some much stronger comments, can also be found in the pro-AKP Turkish press. Ibrahim Karagul, the leading commentator in Yeni Şafak, accuses Iran of trying to start a regional war and says that even Saudi Arabia has made serious mistakes in trying to eliminate the influence of the Muslim Brothers.

Most of Turkish official concern about rising Iranian influence relates to Iraq, a generation ago Turkey’s closest friend in the Middle East, but since the US-led invasion of 2003 an area of constant concern for Ankara. Until very recently Turkey’s relations with the Shia-dominated Iraqi government have been very chilly. The Iraqi Sunni leader and former deputy prime minister, Tariq al-Hashimi, fled to Turkey in the early months of 2012 and has lived since then in Ankara.

By contrast with Iraq, the overthrow of President Hadi’s government in Yemen is not a frontline issue for Turkey where there appears to be almost no knowledge of the country and nothing written about it by academics. However, a rapid growth in Iran’s presence in the Arabian peninsula, and the destabilising effect that this would have on the Gulf states clearly is of interest to Ankara. So the belief that Iranian influence needs to be curbed seems to be genuine. But the Yemen crisis also gives Turkey a golden opportunity to use its solidarity to normalise relations with Arab countries at odds with it because of its support for the Muslim Brothers.

Price of backing Saudi

A key question is how high a price Turkey might have to pay for such a confrontation. Iran is important for Turkey both as a trading partner and energy supplier - there had been hopes of reaching a bilateral trade volume of $30 billion in 2015, up from a third of that only five years ago. Iran is also an important player in the politics of the Caucasus and Azerbaijan and Armenia, though Turkey enjoys a considerable advantage as the transit route through which much of Iran’s trade passes. Iran is also very important as a bulwark for Turkey against Kurdish nationalist militants, though at present its attitude towards its own PPK offshoots is highly confrontational.

If “Storm of Resolve” really does turn into a serious regional war, perhaps with ground troops from other countries going in – Egypt, Jordan, Sudan and Pakistan have been suggested as possible suppliers of soldiers - then Turkey’s logistical support might be a vital element in the alliance. Turkey has not sent troops into the Syrian civil war and its foreign minister has quickly ruled out sending troops to Yemen. This would be very unpopular in the country and general elections are due in June.

However, Ankara’s calculation at this stage is probably that a full-blown regional war over Yemen is not actually on the cards and that “Storm of Resolve” is more of a calculated attempt to get Iran to back down through a pre-emptive display of overwhelming force from a coalition of seven or eight countries.

Nipping the Houthi movement in Yemen in the bud might be messy, given Yemen’s past history of guerrilla fighting, but is probably militarily attainable for Saudi Arabia and its allies. For Iran the risks of intervening would be much greater. Providing assistance to the Houthis by conventional military means as opposed to minor covert ones, would be strategically difficult because of geography and would intensify the country’s international isolation.
Iran unlikely to forgive


- See more at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/turkeys-wading-yemen-crisis-further-sours-turkey-s-ties-iran-1322729087#sthash.iGdrIjkk.dpuf

[KoKo]

31. 29 March UPDATE: Clashes continue in Yemen's Aden as Saudis vow to push on with airstrikes

Clashes continue in Yemen's Aden as Saudis vow to push on with airstrikes
#YemenCrisis

The Saudi-led coalition says it now has full control of Yemen's airspace



Clashes in the southern city of Aden continued late into Sunday, with as many as 100 people now reported killed in the southern capital in the last few days.

As yet unconfirmed reports, published in the Saudi-owned al-Arabiya, also said that forces allied to former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh had begun approaching the southern capital on Monday.

According to the reports, Saleh’s forces are now a mere 30 kilometres from Aden where the Houthi militias have been clashing with forces loyal to President Abd-Rabbuh Mansour Hadi.

While Hadi loyalists told Al Jazeera they had recaptured the airport, which has changed hands several times in the last few days, the two sides were still fighting in the northern parts of the city, with the Houthis also making a push into central Aden.

Ali Abdullah Saleh has long been rumoured to be supporting the Houthis and has widely been blamed for their ability to overrun vast swathes of Yemen since last year. Saleh over the weekend appealed for the Saudi-led strikes to end and for all sides to return to the negotiating table, but his pleas were rejected by the Arab League.

The Houthi and alleged pro-Saleh advance south to Aden, seen as a Hadi stronghold, have continued despite ongoing airstrikes led by Saudi Arabia that have taken aim at Houthi positions across much of the country.

On the fifth consecutive night of bombing, fighter jets roared in the skies above Sanaa from 9:00 pm local time on Sunday night (1800 GMT) until around dawn.

The strikes were heaviest in the area around Marib, 140 kilometers east of Sanaa, where it hit radar facilities and surface-to-air missile batteries, local officials told AFP.

In western Yemen, anti-aircraft defenses were targeted in the port city of Hodeida, as well as several military positions farther south along the coast, residents said.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/clashes-continue-yemens-aden-saudis-vow-continue-airstrikes-1237969720