Will New U.S. Aid and an IMF Bailout Be Enough to Save Ukraine?

[bemildred]

Ukraine got a desperate $17.5 billion shot in the arm Wednesday from the International Monetary Fund. But the biggest threat to the country’s economy — fighting with Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine — still looms large, and a new U.S. aid package falls short of what Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says he needs to defeat them.

The White House announced Vice President Joe Biden told Poroshenko the United States would send an additional $75 million for equipment to help the country as it struggles with a pro-Russian insurgency backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The money will pay for drones, counter-mortar radar, Humvees, radios, and medical kits, among other equipment, but not for arms.

The Treasury Department also announced new sanctions against eight Ukrainian separatists, three former officials from the ousted regime, and a Russian bank. The European Union has not followed suit, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned last week that if the cease-fire was “seriously violated,” the European Commission was ready to impose more restrictions.

The U.S. aid came as the IMF approved the new $17.5 billion bailout for Kiev, replacing a plan put in place last year when it became clear Ukraine needed more money after months of ongoing fighting. The announcement also unlocks further aid from the Europe Union, the U.S., and other countries, which the IMF expects will raise the total to $40 billion over four years.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/11/will-new-u-s-aid-and-an-imf-bailout-be-enough-to-save-ukraine/

[bemildred]

1. Russia may ease Ukraine's gas terms, but Kiev must settle its bills

(Reuters) - Russia may ease the terms of its gas supplies to Ukraine but Kiev will have to pay for the gas Moscow is supplying to rebel-held areas of east Ukraine, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said.

A supply deal for the winter expires on March 31, along with a discount of $100 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas and a suspension of a take-or-pay requirement.

In an interview with Reuters, Novak said Russia was open to prolonging those concessions even without a new deal, which has been referred to as a "summer package", for the period after March 31.

"A discount is possible under the contract as well. No separate (summer) packages are needed if Ukraine and Russia reach an agreement. Take-or-pay (suspension)... is also possible, it depends on the talks between companies," Novak said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/11/us-russia-crisis-novak-gas-idUSKBN0M70IQ20150311

[bemildred]

2. Russia and Ukraine's Medieval Love Affair

I will agree that I found Fiona Hill worth reading on this subject, although she has a slant I don't always follow along with.

The new Minsk agreement is supposed to create a resolution for the Ukraine crisis. But while the conflict poses questions about international law and order for the United States and Europe, it remains for Russia a question of realpolitik, culture and history. Minsk is unlikely to bridge this gap, even if Western leaders cling to the hope that it will. Rather than setting themselves up for disappointment, they should pay attention Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy’s observation that “any effort to understand Vladimir Putin must begin with the man of history. For Putin, . . . history is a crucial matter. . . . He appreciates the power of ‘useful history,’ the application of history as a policy tool, as a social and political organizing force that can help shape group identities and foster coalitions.”

While historical themes have always featured in Putin’s public statements, especially prominent themes in the Ukraine crisis have been Crimea’s significance as the site of Prince Vladimir of Kiev’s baptism in 988 and the fount of an East Slavic civilization based on Orthodoxy, and the Kremlin’s duty to defend the inhabitants of a “New Russia” (“Novorossiya”) consisting of the lands conquered by Catherine the Great (reign: 1762-96) in southern and eastern Ukraine. While “Novorossiya” has retreated to the margins of public discussion, Crimea continues to unite Russians. To convert that consensus into lasting support for Russia’s defense of its political interests in Ukraine, the Kremlin and its allies maintained a strong focus on Russia’s medieval history in the autumn and winter of 2014-15, foregrounding Russia’s non-Western values, the imperative of preserving national unity and the historical and cultural links uniting the East Slavic (Rus’) world. As Alexei Miller, a historian of public memory at the Russian Academy of Sciences, has written: “It is quite possible that in the historical perspective 2014 will be perceived as the beginning of the long process of mobilizing civil society on a platform that will be not only anti-liberal, but also nationalist.”

One example of this mobilization was the Orthodox Rus. My History: The Rurikids exhibition in Moscow’s Manege Exhibition Hall, 4-23 November 2014. Opened by Patriarch Kirill (“of Moscow and All Rus”: in the patriarchate’s view, this includes Ukraine) in Putin’s presence as part of National Unity Day celebrations, it welcomed a quarter of a million people—12,700 a day—in two weeks. A long tunnel of rooms in a snaking S-shape, it depicted the achievements of the twenty-one princes and tsars of the Rurikid dynasty in an epic style, relying heavily on nineteenth-century movements in Russian art. Bearded warrior-princes in flowing robes battled Khazars, Mongols and Swedes, guarded fortress walls, issued laws, built cities and received the blessings of churchmen. Wall maps showing additions and losses to the lands of Rus’ suggested the arbitrariness of Eastern Europe’s modern borders; banners bearing the exhortatory words and effigies of historians, philosophers, saints, patriarchs and presidents—including Putin twice—hung between them. Posters of “surprising facts” added a lighter note. But Rurikids’ message was serious: Russian (russkaya) civilization is exceptional, the Orthodox Church is the nation’s defining cultural institution and a strong, centralized state is crucial for guarding against foreign and domestic foes. Eighty official guides, mainly Orthodox seminarians, reinforced its themes.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-ukraines-medieval-love-affair-12403

[KoKo]

27. Thanks for the "Heads Up" on Fiona Hill........

Rainy, Foggy Day, here...so caught up with reading. Found these reads by Fiona very interesting. She is quite an entertaining writer about Putin. Of course it's Brookings (and there's always that which has CFR,Brookings , Eurasia Group Views) but her writing is very entertaining in characterization. I'm posting the links in case are any readers in this "Group" who might be as interested as I was to check her out from your mention of her writings.
-----------

The American Education of Vladimir Putin

"How the Russian leader came to oppose a country he knows little about"

Fiona Hill and Clifford G. Gaddy Feb 16 2015

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/02/the-american-education-of-vladimir-putin/385517/

--------------
Who is Mr. Putin?" by Fiona Hill

(This is a Fascinating Read for her extensive research/view of "Putin, the Man, and his Rise to Power&quot


http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Press/Books/2012/mrputin/mrputin_chapter.pdf?la=en


--------------

Fiona Hill: Expanded Bio:

Prior to joining Brookings, Hill was director of strategic planning at The Eurasia Foundation in Washington, D.C. From 1991 to 1999, she held a number of positions directing technical assistance and research projects at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, including associate director of the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, director of the Project on Ethnic Conflict in the Former Soviet Union, and coordinator of the Trilateral Study on Japanese-Russian-U.S. Relations.

Hill has published extensively on issues related to Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, regional conflicts, energy and strategic issues. Her book with Brookings Senior Fellow Clifford Gaddy, The Siberian Curse: How Communist Planners Left Russia Out in the Cold, was published by Brookings Institution Press in December 2003, and her monograph, Energy Empire: Oil, Gas and Russia’s Revival, was published by the London Foreign Policy Centre in 2004. The first edition of Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin was published by Brookings Institution Press in December 2013.

Hill holds a master’s in Soviet studies and a doctorate in history from Harvard University where she was a Frank Knox Fellow. She also holds a master’s in Russian and modern history from St. Andrews University in Scotland, and has pursued studies at Moscow’s Maurice Thorez Institute of Foreign Languages. Hill is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the board of trustees of The Eurasia Foundation.

Affiliations:
Council on Foreign Relations, member
Eurasia Foundation, member, board of trustees

[bemildred]

29. Well she is interesting and, indeed, informative.

She has an elaborate narrative built up, she has a strange slant, or perhaps I should say that, like me, she has a slant, but she is still careful about the distinction between facts, opinions, and theories and speculations, a realist. And her prose is scintillating compared to most of the sludge the political classes churn out. I think we may well see a lot more of her work. But I don't have enough samples yet to say much else. It will be interesting to watch.

[bemildred]

3. ISIS and Russia threaten, and NATO cuts spending

The continuing crisis continues ...

NATO warships conducted rapid reaction drills in the Black Sea this week, and the alliance's chief accused Russia of continued aggression in Ukraine. Meanwhile, NATO member states continue to battle ISIS extremists, who insist their goals include sacking Rome.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is more relevant than it has been for years. But many of its members are moving further away from meeting their defense spending obligations.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102495884

[bemildred]

4. Germany's Merkel to snub World War II parade in Russia over Ukraine

BERLIN (AFP) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel declined an invitation to a May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow but will visit the Russian capital a day later, her office said Wednesday amid tensions over the Ukraine conflict.

Dr Merkel will stay away from the Red Square commemoration, traditionally a major show of Russian military force, that will mark 70 years since Nazi Germany capitulated to Soviet forces, a government spokesman said.

"In view of the Russian actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, participation would seem inappropriate to us," said her spokesman Steffen Seibert.

However, Dr Merkel plans to visit Moscow on May 10 to lay a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier together with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has agreed to the plan, he said.

http://www.straitstimes.com/news/world/europe/story/germanys-merkel-snub-world-war-ii-parade-russia-over-ukraine-20150312

[bemildred]

12. David Cameron to boycott Moscow's WWII commemorations in protest over Ukraine crisis

David Cameron will not attend Russian commemorations of the Allied victory in World War Two in protest at Putin's invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, Downing Street has said.

The Prime Minister will join Angela Merkel and the leaders of the Baltic states in boycotting the Victory Day parade in May, marking seventy years since the capitulation of Nazi Germany.

It is unusual for Downing Street to rule out attending an event so far in advance, not least given the event comes after the General Election on May 7, meaning Mr Cameron may not be in office. It is also unusual for Downing Street to cite a political reason for the Prime Minister’s absence at a major ceremonial event.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11466839/David-Cameron-to-boycott-Moscows-WWII-commemorations-in-protest-over-Crimea-invasion.html

[bemildred]

5. The Lonely Countries Club: Russia announces ‘year of friendship’ with North Korea

Russia on Wednesday said it was kicking off a “year of friendship” with totalitarian North Korea as ties with the West languish over Ukraine.

The foreign ministry in Moscow announced it had agreed to start a programme of cultural exchanges with the Stalinist regime in Pyongyang aimed at taking ties between the one-time Cold War allies to a “new high level”.

The events — to coincide with the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in May — come as Moscow seeks to offset its slump in relations with the West over Russia’s support for separatists in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has already said that North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un will be coming to Moscow in May to take part in commemorations of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2015/03/the-lonely-countries-club-russia-announces-year-of-friendship-with-north-korea/

[bemildred]

6. IMF approves US dollar 17.5 billion aid for Ukraine

Washington: The International Monetary Fund approved a US dollar 17.5 billion aid plan for crisis-wracked Ukraine, whose economy is reeling from a pro-Russia insurgency in its industrial heartland.

The new loan, with US dollar 5 billion to be disbursed immediately, replaces an IMF programme less than one year old that proved inadequate to stabilize Kiev's finances as it fights the separatists.

"This new four-year extended arrangement will support immediate economic stabilization in Ukraine and a set of deep and wide-ranging policy reforms aimed at restoring robust growth over the medium term and improving living standards for the Ukrainian people," said IMF managing director Christine Lagarde in a statement.

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/imf-approves-us-dollar-175-billion-aid-for-ukraine/533394-2.html

[bemildred]

7. . nt

[Man from Pickens]

8. thank you for keeping tabs on this story

I have noticed your efforts and applaud them

[bemildred]

9. Just trying to cut through the babble.

Last edited Wed Mar 11, 2015, 11:44 PM - Edit history (1)

I thought of posting Parry's latest piece on Nuland's "Mastery of Propaganda" for the unintended humor, or one from AEI on Putin's geopolitical strategy to restore Russian global hegemony, but that stuff gets boring and predictable ...

I have noticed that you seem to have a good grasp of argument, too.

[jakeXT]

10. There is a good paragraph:cap pension benefits, increase work requirements and higher retirement age

Besides heaping all the blame on the Russians, Nuland cited – in her Senate testimony – some of the new “reforms” that the Kiev authorities have just implemented as they build a “free-market state.” She said, “They made tough choices to reduce and cap pension benefits, increase work requirements and phase in a higher retirement age; … they passed laws cutting wasteful gas subsidies.”

https://consortiumnews.com/2015/03/11/nulands-mastery-of-ukraine-propaganda/

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/rm/2015/mar/238722.htm

[bemildred]

11. Ms Nuland's careeer and ideology are on the line.

And you may be sure that whatever happens it is not Nuland's fault, no, not at all. Ms Nuland only does successful things, she does. From what little I can see of Nuland, she is an incompetent mediocrity, like her husband. She speaks in unimaginative jargon and political cant all the time for example, my mind starts to veer off immediately when I read her words, the classic soporific bureaucratese, or empty babble as I call it, it means nothing.

I think it's interesting that, like Cheney, she has been flushed out into the open of late, having to defend her policies in person, always a good sign for the public when these cretin's are required to defend their follies.

[KoKo]

25. all I can add is.......

[bemildred]

13. Putin says Russia's actions in Crimea prevented conflict: RIA news agency

MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said that Russia's decisive actions in Crimea a year ago were to prevent a conflict similar to the one that followed later in east Ukraine, the state agency RIA Novosti reported on Thursday.

Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea after a March 16, 2014, referendum on the peninsula in support of joining Russia.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/idCAKBN0M80V320150312?rpc=401

[bemildred]

14. Russia holds military drills in Crimea, Georgian breakaway regions- RIA

MOSCOW, March 12 (Reuters) - Russia has started military exercises in the country's south, as well as in Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and in Crimea, annexed from Ukraine last year, news agency RIA reported on Thursday, citing Russia's Defence Ministry.

http://www.trust.org/item/20150312094245-ne1i4/

Don't you love that URL: "trust.org"?

[bemildred]

15. Ukraine seeks to hike 30% tariffs for Russian natural gas shipments to Europe

Ukraine will seek to hike the gas transportation tariffs it charges Russia for shipments of natural gas to markets in Europe by 30%, Energy and Coal Industry Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn said late Wednesday.

Ukraine, Russia and the EU will hold trilateral negotiations on March 20 in Brussels to discuss gas supplies and prevent potential disputes between Kiev and Moscow.

Ukraine currently charges the Russian gas giant Gazprom $2.88 to ship of 1,000 cu m of gas 100 km (62 miles) across its territory, but the price is only valid until the end of the month and will have to be renegotiated.

"I set myself the goal of increasing this tariff by at least 30%," Demchyshyn told a press conference.

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/kiev/ukraine-seeks-to-hike-30-tariffs-for-russian-21128202

[bemildred]

16. Ukraine peace deal unlikely as Vladimir Putin pushes for more in the east

The current lull in fighting in Ukraine, the result of a ceasefire signed in February, is a temporary reprieve from a protracted conflict that will likely end with the country's eastern regions becoming de facto Russian satellite states, according to military experts.

Signed in the Belarusian capital of Minsk and brokered largely by Germany and France, the ceasefire went into effect on Feb. 15. It was the third agreement to be implemented in the conflict between Ukrainian government forces and separatist fighters backed by Moscow that has claimed nearly 6,000 lives and displaced 1.8 million people.

Both forces have begun pulling back artillery and heavy guns from the front line in accordance with the ceasefire conditions. Despite being encouraging development both sides continue to report deaths, mainly from small arms and rocket fire.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-peace-deal-unlikely-as-vladimir-putin-pushes-for-more-in-the-east-1.2989062?cmp=rss

[bemildred]

17. IMF: Ukraine Bailout Based on Cease-Fire with Russia-Backed Separatists Holding

Which means the rebels can trash it any time they want to. It's not smart to say that, but I suppose the worry is that the gov't in Kiev will use the money to start the war up again, if the rebels don't.

WASHINGTON--The International Monetary Fund's bailout of Ukraine is based on a fragile cease-fire holding between Kiev and Russia-backed separatists in the east, IMF officials said Thursday.

The IMF's assumption of a "non-intensification" of the conflict just a day after U.S. officials said militants had already violated the deal underscores the frailty of the bailout program.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/imf-ukraine-bailout-based-on-ceasefire-with-russiabacked-separatists-holding-20150312-00693

[bemildred]

18. EXCLUSIVE-From 'Red October' village, new evidence on downing of Malaysian plane over Ukraine

----

DIGGING POTATOES

On the afternoon of July 17, Valentina Kovalenko was digging up potatoes in her garden in Chervonyi Zhovten, a village whose name translates as Red October in honour of Russia's Communist revolution of 1917.

"It took off, at first we thought that a plane was crashing. But it was a rocket," said Kovalenko, 45, who then saw what she thought was smoke coming from the 'Progress' mine in Torez, a town 9.5 km away to the north-west.

Her daughter Anastasia Kovalenko, 14, said she saw a rocket flying over the village, and then a plane in the distance blowing up.

Olga Krasilnikova, 30, also said she saw a rocket, some time between 4 and 5 p.m. "I saw it was flying, flew right over me. From that side," she said, pointing to the outskirts of the village . "I saw smoke in the sky, then I heard an explosion and I saw a huge blue (cloud of) smoke."

http://www.trust.org/item/20150312152815-bwg4r/

[KoKo]

23. Interesting...

]b\VILLAGE OUTSKIRTS

When interviewed by Reuters, Fedotov, the witness who described the 'wiggling' rocket, at first said on camera that it was fired from territory held by the Ukrainian army. Later, off camera, he said it was launched from a nearby rebel area. Asked why he had originally said the opposite, he said it was because he was afraid of the rebels.

He gave a Reuters reporter directions to a field 1.5 km from the village, which he said had been identified to him by local farm workers as the point from which the missile battery had launched the rocket.

When Reuters visited the site in February, there were no signs of any missile launch.

Russian and separatist officials have said that Ukrainian military aircraft were overhead at the time the Malaysian airliner came down. They have said that if an anti-aircraft missile was launched in the vicinity, it was to bring down a Ukrainian warplane. They have also suggested a Ukrainian fighter aircraft may have shot down the Malaysian airliner.

[bemildred]

30. Hearsay and speculation.

The most interesting thing about the MH17 shootdown is how little is known. One must assume either that nobody has any dispositive information about how it was downed, or they don't want it made public. But in any case, I do occasional news searches about it and come up with almost nothing. Meanwhile two other lost Malayan planes remain a big deal.

[KoKo]

31. How little is known.......

Last edited Sun Mar 15, 2015, 07:10 PM - Edit history (3)

but, we are told that excellent satellite surveillance is done by USA, Russia and China and it is so sophisticated...as it should be, given the sophisticated technology, that all three have. So, AGREE, "how little is known...or how little is revealed." Or "bargaining chips by the three" to position themselves... Whatever..."inquiring minds" do inquire. Even if it sometimes comes up as "CT." Why not wonder?

I found this from the article interesting:

When Reuters visited the site in February, there were no signs of any missile launch.

Of course it could have been "Landscaped".......... according to one's VIEWPOINT....And...why Shouldn't Democrats have differing viewpoints within the confines?

[bemildred]

19. Hang Ukrainian Jewish leaders says former Russian Jewish Congress president

A former head of the Russian-Jewish community called for the deaths of two of his Ukrainian counterparts on Wednesday, drawing harsh condemnations from Jewish figures in both countries.

In an interview with radio Govorit Moskva, Yevgeny Satanovsky, a former president of the Russian Jewish Congress and current head of the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies in Moscow, accused Ukrainians, including Jewish leaders, of downplaying the role of World War II era nationalist leader Stepan Bandera in the massacre of their country’s Jews.

“When and if there is such [an opportunity] I will hang at least [Kolomoisky] and Joseph Zissels,” in front of Dnepropetrovsk’s Golden Rose synagogue, he said.

http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/Hang-Ukrainian-Jewish-leaders-says-former-Russian-Jewish-Congress-president-393774

[bemildred]

20. Kremlin says Ukraine moving too slowly to fulfill peace deal

MOSCOW (AP) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman is accusing Ukraine of dragging its feet on implementing last month's peace deal.

Dmitry Peskov told The Associated Press on Thursday that while hostilities in eastern Ukraine have abated thanks to the Feb. 12 peace deal, the Russian-backed separatists and the Ukrainian government are still blaming each other for a slow and incomplete withdrawal of heavy weapons. He said "we do expect both sides of the conflict to fulfill their obligations, and to withdraw completely and timely all the heavy armaments."

Peskov also said Russia was concerned about Ukraine's reluctance to fulfill its pledge to restore financial and social services to the eastern regions.

More than 6,000 people have been killed in the fighting between government troops and the rebels in eastern Ukraine since April.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_UKRAINE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-03-12-14-53-22

[bemildred]

21. Ukraine: One Debt Tea Leaf in the IMF Program

The IMF has approved a new 4-year $17.5 billion program for Ukraine, with an immediate disbursement of $5 billion. This is a big economic, institutional, and geopolitical deal. I will comment on one small piece of one small piece: the treatment of Russia's $3 billion loan to the last Ukrainian government, about which I have written at various levels of weediness here, here, and here.

The IMF program is approved under the Fund's existing "exceptional access" (huge $$) policy, which has been interpreted to require debt restructuring unless the country's debt is "sustainable with high probability" (for some of the back-and-forth on the reform proposals, see here, or watch here and here). The Ukraine program therefore expressly hinges on a government and government-guaranteed debt "operation" to achieve sustainability, plus a roll-over of 95-100% of the debts owed by Ukrainian banks and corporations (lots of it to Russia). Brilliant minds are crunching the numbers now to figure out whether Ukraine's bondholders might get by without principal reduction, and without suspending interest payments, based on any realistic set of assumptions.

I am struck by one bit of arithmetic: Ukraine has about $7.7 billion in external sovereign debt payments due in 2015, of which $5.8 billion is principal, of which $3 billion is to Russia (see p. 138). The IMF document contemplates $5.2 billion in financing from the "debt operation" in 2015 (see p. 12). Since 7.7-5.2=2.5, and since 2.5<3, Russia does not seem to be getting its $3 billion repayment in December. The fact that the IMF board, which includes Russia, approved this scenario, seems important. But (a) the details are super-foggy and (b) I may be missing something, like a big guarantee payment.

http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/2015/03/ukraine-one-debt-tea-leaf-in-the-imf-program.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+creditslips%2Ffeed+%28Credit+Slips%29

[bemildred]

22. Russia's Military Options in Ukraine -: Gaming a Russian Offensive

Editor's Note: As part of our analytical methodology, Stratfor periodically conducts internal military simulations. This series, examining the scenarios under which Russian and Western forces might come into direct conflict in Ukraine, reflects such an exercise. It thus differs from our regular analyses in several ways and is not intended as a forecast. This series reflects the results of meticulous examination of the military capabilities of both Russia and NATO and the constraints on those forces. It is intended as a means to measure the intersection of political intent and political will as constrained by actual military capability. This study is not a definitive exercise; instead it is a review of potential decision-making by military planners. We hope readers will gain from this series a better understanding of military options in the Ukraine crisis and how the realities surrounding use of force could evolve if efforts to implement a cease-fire fail and the crisis escalates.

Russia's current military position in Ukraine is very exposed and has come at a great cost relative to its limited political gains. The strategic bastion of Crimea is defensible as an island but is subject to potential isolation. The position of Ukrainian separatists and their Russian backers in eastern Ukraine is essentially a large bulge that will require heavy military investment to secure, and it has not necessarily helped Moscow achieve its larger imperative of creating defensible borders. This raises the question of whether Russia will take further military action to secure its interests in Ukraine.

To answer this question, Stratfor examined six basic military options that Russia might consider in addressing its security concerns in Ukraine, ranging from small harassment operations to an all-out invasion of eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper River. We then assessed the likely time and forces required to conduct these operations in order to determine the overall effort and costs required, and the Russian military's ability to execute each operation. In order to get a baseline assessment for operations under current conditions, we initially assumed in looking at these scenarios that the only opponent would be Ukrainian forces already involved in the conflict.
Analysis

One of the most discussed options is a Russian drive along Ukraine's southern coast in order to link up Crimea with separatist positions in eastern Ukraine. For this scenario, we assumed that planners would make the front broad enough to secure Crimea's primary water supply, sourced from the Dnieper, and that the defensive lines would be anchored as much as possible on the river, the only defensible terrain feature in the region. This would in effect create a land bridge to secure supply lines into Crimea and prevent any future isolation of the peninsula. Russia would have to drive more than 400 kilometers (250 miles) into an area encompassing 46,620 square kilometers, establish more than 450 kilometers of new defensive lines, and subdue a population of 2 million.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article49801.html

[KoKo]

24. Recommend....Great Maps to keep us "Grounded."

Last edited Sat Mar 14, 2015, 06:55 PM - Edit history (1)

The maps are helpful.

[arcane1]

26. Well, if the IMF is on the case, everything will be fine for the Ukranians

[KoKo]

28. No doubt... They still believe "They Rule"......for now.. n/t