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left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)
Thu Jul 30, 2020, 12:19 PM Jul 2020

China's Xi Sets His Sights on Taiwan After Subduing Hong Kong

Fears are growing that President Xi Jinping of China wants to conquer Taiwan, a prize that’s eluded Communist Party leaders for decades. Joseph Wu, the foreign minister of the island’s democratic government, warned on July 22 that China “may look for excuses to start a war or conflict” after it suddenly stepped up incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, raising the risk of a collision that could escalate.

“What China is doing now is continuing to ramp up preparedness to solve the Taiwan issue,” Wu said. “We are very concerned that China will target Taiwan now that the Hong Kong security law’s been passed.”

The U.S. had terminated its mutual defense treaty with Taiwan as part of the agreement to establish diplomatic ties with China in 1979 in the wake of Richard Nixon’s famous trip to Beijing. It replaced that with legislation authorizing the sale of weapons for Taiwan to “maintain a sufficient self-defense capability,” while stopping short of saying it would join a conflict.

Of the many U.S.-China conflicts right now—from Huawei Technologies Co. to Hong Kong to the consulate closures—none is more dangerous over the long haul than that involving Taiwan. The Communist Party has threatened to invade the island ever since Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists fled China in 1949. In a speech in Beijing last year about the party’s policy toward Taiwan, Xi said, “We make no promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary means.” He declared that “China must and will be united, which is an inevitable requirement for the historical rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in the new era.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-30/china-set-its-sights-on-taiwan-after-hong-kong-crackdown?srnd=premium

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China's Xi Sets His Sights on Taiwan After Subduing Hong Kong (Original Post) left-of-center2012 Jul 2020 OP
That is a lot different than the Hong Kong situation. I don't think China will risk any move still_one Jul 2020 #1
That is a lot different than the Hong Kong situation. I don't think China will risk any move still_one Jul 2020 #2
What would it take? soryang Aug 2020 #3

still_one

(91,962 posts)
1. That is a lot different than the Hong Kong situation. I don't think China will risk any move
Thu Jul 30, 2020, 12:39 PM
Jul 2020

against Taiwan, especially now

still_one

(91,962 posts)
2. That is a lot different than the Hong Kong situation. I don't think China will risk any move
Thu Jul 30, 2020, 12:39 PM
Jul 2020

against Taiwan, especially now

soryang

(3,299 posts)
3. What would it take?
Sat Aug 1, 2020, 12:42 AM
Aug 2020

What Would It Take to Avert Military Escalation With China in the South China Sea?
The US and China’s dance in the South China Sea bears a troubling resemblance to 1914 Sarajevo—and the eve of World War I.
By Michael T. Klare

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/pompeo-south-china-sea/

Given that hostile encounters between Chinese coast guard vessels and the fishing or oil-survey boats of the other countries occur on an almost weekly basis, some incident Pompeo might characterize as Chinese “bullying” of an American friend or ally—thereby justifying a US military response—could arise at almost any time. In fact, such an incident almost occurred in May, when the Navy dispatched three of its warships to nudge away some Chinese vessels that were said to be harassing a Malaysian oil-drill ship.

In orchestrating all these military and diplomatic moves, US officials seem to be proceeding with a sense of magisterial self-assurance—as if China were able to gain a foothold in the South China Sea because of American inattention during the “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan and that now, with the United States again asserting its authority there, the Chinese are certain to retire in trepidation. This is evident in the Pentagon statements cited above and the harsh and disrespectful tone of Pompeo’s July 13 statement.


People in leadership positions in the State Dept and the Pentagon are clueless. The era of the great white fleet, and overwhelming western technological, economic and military dominance over China are over. Anyone who knows the history, knows the Chinese won't back down from a direct confrontation. They may bide their time, they may seek dialogue and refrain from escalation but if it is interpreted as weakness that will be a terrible mistake. Any accidental war breaking out in the South China Sea could risk Taiwan's security. I would anticipate some aggressive moves in the Taiwan straits immediately after the US decides to show China who's boss in the South China Sea. And they will be difficult to counter in those restrictive waters.

Remember when MacArthur said the Korean War would be over by Christmas? China is many times more capable than it was then. The spooks and armchair generals who thought they knew what they were doing in Hong Kong are just kidding themselves.
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