Ukraine may grant autonomy to pro-Russian separatists in a bid for peace

[bemildred]

Ukraine’s highest court has allowed MPs to change the country’s constitution to grant Russian-backed separatists partial autonomy, in a tentative move towards fulfilling a key part of the peace agreement aimed at ending the 16-month conflict in the east of the country.

In a decision reached on Friday morning, chief justice Vasyl Brintsev said that allowing the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to run their own elections and police forces “does not break or limit the rights and freedoms of [Ukrainian] people and citizens.”

“Decentralisation” for the eastern regions is a key part of a peace protocol negotiated by Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, at talks brokered by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Francois Hollande, the French president, in Minsk in February.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11776922/Ukraine-may-grant-autonomy-to-pro-Russian-separatists-in-a-bid-for-peace.html

[bemildred]

1. Sieren's China: Ukraine is China's breadbasket

More than a year has gone by since the European Union imposed sanctions against Russia. While Russia and the West have scarcely approached each other, Beijing has been active.

Ever since Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, Kyiv has increased its agricultural trade with Beijing by more than 50 percent. The crisis-stricken country has become the world's largest supplier of grain to the Chinese in the first half of this year, as the Russians purchase very little and the Europeans don't need anything.

In fact, Ukraine has overtaken the US, traditionally China's largest grain supplier. In their difficult situation, Ukrainians have had to offer favorable prices, sometimes giving discounts of up to 50 percent on purchases from agricultural companies.

But Beijing isn't just interested in food: China also aims to work more closely with Ukraine in the fields of technology, real estate and science. In March, Beijing pumped $15 billion (13.6 billion euros) in loans into Ukraine's devastated real estate market, and also enhanced its economic cooperation with the Ukrainian aviation industry. The first China-Ukraine Forum on Science and Technology was held on July 8. There, Beijing announced its aim to support Ukraine in the development of information technology.

http://www.dw.com/en/sierens-china-ukraine-is-chinas-breadbasket/a-18621316

[bemildred]

2. IMF Approves $1.7 Billion Loan To Ukraine After 'Strong Start' On Reforms

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a second installment of loans for Ukraine despite uncertainties raised by the country's heavy debts and conflict with Russian-backed separatist forces.

The IMF executive board said on July 31 that it would immediately disburse $1.7 billion, part of a $17.5 billion support program awarded in March that is linked to economic reforms that Ukraine has started to carry out.

David Lipton, the IMF's first deputy managing director, said that the Ukrainian authorities had made a "strong start" on a tough reform program requiring it to simultaneously tackle debt, corruption, and inefficiencies in its governance.

"The momentum needs to be sustained, as significant structural and institutional reforms are still needed to address economic imbalances that held Ukraine back in the past," he said.

http://www.rferl.org/content/imf-gives-ukraine-loan-after-strong-start-reforms/27164015.html

[bemildred]

3. Poroshenko: Crimea to have status of national-territorial autonomy within Ukraine

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says a road map will be developed for Crimea, which is the ancestral territory of Crimean Tatars, to be granted status of national-territorial autonomy within the Ukrainian state.

"I'd like to assure you that Ukraine will never, under any circumstances, put up with the violation of the rights of its citizens, human rights, the rights of the Crimean Tatar people to live freely on their land. Ukraine, together with its international partners, will do its best to restore the rule of law on the peninsula and the return of Crimea under Ukrainian jurisdiction. We have established government institutions that are engaged in the pursuit of the state policy in relation to Crimea. Representatives of the Crimean Tatars, including national leaders, Members of Parliament Mustafa Dzhemilev and Refat Chubarov, enjoy a worthy place among the Ukrainian authorities," Poroshenko said in a statement addressing the second World Congress of the Crimean Tatars, which is being held in Ankara July 31 through August 2.

"I sincerely welcome representatives of the courageous and freedom-loving Crimean Tatar people, who came to participate in the second World Congress of the Crimean Tatars. The whole world is with you now. A considerable number of participants in the forum from different countries is proof of this," the president said in the statement.

Poroshenko said that six years had passed since "the first time you came together in your historic homeland in Crimea to establish the World Congress of the Crimean Tatars, freely discussing the plans of national revival and restoration of relations between representatives of the nation torn by the imperial policy of the Kremlin. The nation who gained the opportunity to get united thanks to their struggle and the support of Ukraine, which in 1991 became independent and opened ways for the Crimean Tatars to return home."

http://www.unian.info/politics/1107188-poroshenko-crimea-to-have-status-of-national-territorial-autonomy-within-ukraine.html

[KoKo]

4. Wonder how long before the "troubles" with Crimea surface again...

This seems a pretty aggressive policy move by Poroshenko. And, one would think Putin would not be pleased with statement.

Ukraine, together with its international partners, will do its best to restore the rule of law on the peninsula and the return of Crimea under Ukrainian jurisdiction.

Aren't Nuland & her Allies over there in an official capacity these days? Sounds like a policy statement they would have had a hand in crafting.

[bemildred]

5. Well, it won't make any friends.

Most likely payback as he sees it.

I have not been paying much attention to the Ukraine blather of late, but I do have the impression that things are not going well and there is a good deal of thrashing around going on, threats and provocations and posturing and dissembling. Saakashvili is down there doing his Trump imitation in Odessa, and games are being played in Moldova next door, and there gang wars over smuggling in the East and Nationalists calling for Poroshenko's head and debt repudiation.

I don't suppose things are better in the Donbas either.

One gets the feeling that the Ukraine mess is not on the front burner now, the Middle East has sucked all the oxygen out of the room and there is not much left for Ukraine.

[KoKo]

6. What you say....

I haven't either and thanks for the update about Saakashvili in Odessa. Was surprised at the post here in "FA" that China is buying most of Ukraine's grain. I thought Ukraine was the breadbasket for Russia. And mentioning all that that Chinese investment in Ukraine somehow seemed to be a bit optimistic...(like maybe exaggerated)-- but who knows. Depends on the spin, I guess.

As you said:

One gets the feeling that the Ukraine mess is not on the front burner now, the Middle East has sucked all the oxygen out of the room and there is not much left for Ukraine.

[doxyluv13]

7. Good News. A step forward on the Minsk agreement...

….which is the only path that can yield a peaceful, united Ukraine. What the Kiev govt has not done is to engage the rebels meaningfully in a way to move toward some form of regional autonomy for the East short of Federalism. It's very hard for Poroschenko to do this because what he really wants is to continue the war, plus there's a good chance the Right-Wing militias will overthrow his government if he is too conciliatory. Still, it seems Poroschenko realizes he can't do without German support, and Angela Merkel wants the Minsk agreement to stick.

[bemildred]

8. Don't get your hopes too high just yet.

There are lots of people, high and low, that don't want to get along just yet. It is true many of them are on the anti-Russian side, but losers always want to continue the argument, and there are plenty of war-lovers on the pro-Russian side too.

Nevertheless, you are right, you can't build a modern functional society, pro-Russian or anti-Russian, in a country awash in debt and engaged in a civil war. (I know they are "terrorists", but I don't give a fuck at this point, it's a civil war with outside meddling and supply, like Syria, a proxy-war, the worst kind.) So if that is really what they want, modernity and prosperity, they need to get their shit together and get along.

The only thing modern about war is the technology.

But it 's starting to look like the Iraqi case to me, Ukraine may well not be put back together again.

[doxyluv13]

9. Your point is well taken. Forgive me for grasping at anything hopeful in this situation.

nt

[bemildred]

10. That's all right, I understand perfectly.

I was still hopeful over a year ago, before Yats and the gang started up the ATO and attacked the Donbas, since then I've expected civil war and more partitioning of Ukraine, with Putin doing the minimum necessary to prevent the present government from governing, which he can easily do.

The present government in Kiev would like to escalate the conflict and get "the West" more involved, it's their only real chance, but Putin knows the score, and he won't play, he won't make the first move, and the EU is much too self-absorbed to do much more than posture and whine, and the debacle in the Middle East keeps getting worse.

So i expect more to the same disfunction we've had in Ukraine, punctuated by outbreaks of insurrection and low grade warfare.

[doxyluv13]

11. Since my previous post I listened to Stephen Cohen The Nation website.

Cohen sees the actions taken by the Rada as insufficient, and says the unless Poroschenko engages in direct talks with the authorities in Donbas, nothing else matters.


http://www.thenation.com/article/is-us-policy-toward-russia-and-ukraine-falling-apart/

[bemildred]

12. He is correct.

It's a civil war. It won't be settled by Putin. He can meddle, he can prevent a settlement, he can make it worse, and he has, but he did not start it and he can't fix it by himself, and he does want it fixed.

Cohen has been on the shit list from the beginning of this dispute because he would not accept the one-sided narrative the War Lovers want to push. But then he is an academic, not a political hack.