Hybrid Sales down 18% from this time last year. Overall car sales up 4.5% thru May 2015

[Bill USA]

May 2015 Dashboard

Total Hybrid CY 2015 (thru May): 158,640 CY 2014 (thru May) 193,543 .... CY 2015 vs 2014 : -18.0%

What’s up with declining hybrid sales?

Has America lost its appetite for saving fuel? Hybrid sales have declined in recent months, at a time when high gasoline prices have fallen, so it is easy to draw a connection. But industry analysts say there may or may not be a link.

~~
~~

“Autotrader’s analysis of IHS/Polk registration data shows the hybrid/electric vehicle share of vehicle registrations peaked in May 2014, and that share has dropped every month since then,” Krebs said.

If you think relatively low gasoline prices are solely to blame for sluggish hybrid sales, Krebs says you’re wrong. She says the market began trending downward when gas prices were still increasing, and continued to decline with gas prices above or near the $3.50 gallon mark.

“In fact, the share declined for 4 consecutive months from May to September 2014 when gas prices were near historically high levels,” she said. “Further, that was against the backdrop of strong total vehicle sales and a flurry of new hybrid and EV introductions.”
(more)

[Warpy]

1. People think cheap gas is here to stay.

It's not. At least they're not trading up to what my dad used to call "those fucking rolling billboards," they're trading up to larger sedans and smaller crossovers.

They're not getting suckered in to buying that H2 they've always dreamt about.

[kristopher]

9. Actually, the OP author is misrepresenting the Dashboard article quoted

Sales for the overall U.S. market in May were strong – in fact they were at the best seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) since July 2005 – and the industry showed continuing improvement from year-ago, as most automakers showed gains.

SAAR takes the actual number of sales in a month and annualizes it based on the number of selling days in the month and historical data that compares sales in May of this year to May results in other years. In short, this was the relatively best month period for car sales in a decade.

With that fact as a backdrop, all of the alternative vehicle categories had their best month of the year in terms of both volume and share of total sales. Both plug ins and hybrids had the highest volume since August of 2014 when the market for these vehicles was not yet affected by the decline in fuel prices.

As noted, sales for full electric vehicles were up strongly for the month from year-ago due to strong sales from the category leaders, namely the Model S and the Leaf. Tesla had a strong month based on interest in and availability of the Model S “D” varieties, particularly the high-performance P85D.

A larger number than normal of total sales were U.S.-based, leading to a strong result. While the Leaf is down so far this year, it had a relatively strong month. Sales are likely to trail the strong results of year-ago for some time, with an updated version expected late this year...

http://www.hybridcars.com/may-2015-dashboard/

The data graphs are well worth visiting the site.

[alc]

2. subsidies & rebates ended at the end of last year in my state

I know 2 "rich" people who got teslas over the last two years. And 5 others who got free leafs. Literally free for a 3 year lease - I looked into it and would have got one myself except for the range.

One of the tesla owners and 2 of the leaf owners would probably buy one at market rates. The others were strictly about the great deal.

[Canoe52]

3. I don't "get" hybrids

I mean make a good and efficient gas powered car, or make a good electric car, but to put two systems together in one car doesn't seem to make much sense to me. One system is going to win out in the end (and obviously it will be the electric car).
So why pay so much for a two system car?

Does anyone else feel this way?

[happyslug]

5. the key is to look at the weakness of both systems

First the electric drive has always been the most efficient from an energy to power point of view. The problem was and is storage of the electrical power till it was needed. In the old streetcar that problem was solved with the overhead wires, thus stayed competitive with buses till people thought in terms of the cost this year (In any five year period, buses are cheaper, but they wear out quicker then Streetcars, so if you look at 20 year periods, Streetcars win hands down).

Now, one way to get the use of electric power is vehicle without access to overhead wires is to use an engine to produce the electrical power. What are called "Diesel" railroad engines have always done this, the actual drive on a diesel is electricity, the diesel is just a generator.

Batteries are another way to store electrical power for later use, they are NOT as efficient as generators, but are getting close. The big drawback is batteries to weigh a good bit of mass (Through that is getting lower, but even Lithium batteries have some weight). Thus the ideal situation is just enough batteries to get the vehicle from point a to point b. The problem is present electrical storage is not that great, gasoline still has more power in it then any battery is expected to have for at least another 20 years (and that is assuming the present increase in battery storage capacity, which some people do not think will continue). Thus today, most cars are designed only to operate 15 to 30 minutes on battery power alone. That is good for a lot of people, but not most people.

To get around this problem, the hybrid was adopted. It is a variation of the Diesel Railroad engine concept, i.e. a generator that charges the batteries AND provide extra power when needed. The gasoline engine turns off when the batteries are full and the electricity from the generator is NOT needed to propel the car.

As I like to point out Diesel Locomotive and diesel-electric drive (the most common drive on not only sea going ships but barges on the rivers) have been used for decades. Now, these were designed never to be turned off for some power was always needed somewhere on ships (and to a lesser degree on Locomotives) but if you turned the engines off, some locomotives and ships would still have enough power to stop safely.

The biggest waste on a gasoline or diesel engine is running it when it is not needed. With a Hybrid system, the actual power to propel the vehicle is electrical power and batteries can do that in most situations. Occasionally you will need extra power and the gasoline engine will cut in to provide that power, and then cut out when it is not needed.

Gasoline and diesel engines are at these least efficient when they are idling. This just eats up fuel. With conventional gasoline or diesel engine, the engines has to idle when the extra power that the engine can provide is not needed. In a hybrid during those low power needed period the engine cuts off and the electrical batteries provide all of the needed power TILL it is time extra power is needed and the gasoline or diesel engine is kicked on till the extra power is NOT needed.

Thus a hybrid system permit the max efficiency of both the electrical drive and gasoline/Diesel engines, for where one is weak the other is strong. At idle or constant speed electrical power is all one needs, when rapid acceleration is needed the gasoline/Diesel engine is kicked in till the extra power is no longer needed then the gasoline/Diesel engine is cut out. This is why such systems get 40 to 60 miles per gallon. It is the result of taking two system and integrating them where one is weak and the other is strong and making an overall stronger system.

[kristopher]

8. It might be helpful to clarify the differences between parallel and series hybrids.

Since the systems are very different conceptually, it would make the information you've gather here easier to apply when someone is looking at a specific hybrid vehicle.

[happyslug]

10. The issue was the whole concept of Hybrid not Serial or Parallel Hybrids.

For those of you who are following this thread lets define Serial and Parallel Hybrids first:

Parallel hybrid systems, which are most commonly produced at present, have both an internal combustion engine (ICE) and an electric motor coupled. If they are joined at an axis in parallel, the speeds at this axis must be identical and the supplied torques add together. Most electric bicycles are of this type. When only one of the two sources is being used, the other must either also rotate in an idling manner, be connected by a one-way clutch, or freewheel. With cars, the two sources may be applied to the same shaft- for example with the electric motor lying between the engine and transmission. The speeds are thus equal and the torques add up, with the electric motor adding or subtracting torque to the system as necessary. The Honda Insight uses this system.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_vehicle_drivetrain#Parallel_hybrid

The best example of a Parallel Hybrid system is an electric bicycle. You retain all of the propulsion system of the non electric system but then add on an electric motor that can also propel the bicycle. Please note, the actual "wheel" the two systems work on can be the same or different. In custom made electric bicycle the rear wheel gets both forms of power, in an add on electric bicycle, in most cases the front wheel is replaced with a wheel with an electric motor, so you peddle, the power goes to the rear wheel, but if you turn on the electrical power it goes to the front wheel.

Now for the Serial Hybrid:

The mechanical transmission between the engine and the wheels is removed and replaced by electric driving traction motors which are powered by an electric generator turned by an internal combustion engine. The driving electric traction motors are the only form of propulsion.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_vehicle_drivetrain#Series_hybrid

Best example of a Series Hybrid system, are Diesel Electric Locomotives and ships. The main propulsion system is electrical, the only difference is where the electrical power is coming from. It can be from the diesel or gasoline engine OR from batteries.


The Toyota Prius is called a "Serial-Parallel system: for it uses both to a degree. The actual final transmission is a CRT (continuously variable transmission) but the CRT is controlled by an electric motor "that the torque/speed conversion uses an electric motor rather than a direct mechanical gear train connection". i.e. the electric motor moves the "gears" as oppose to a mechanical leakage in convention CRT transmissions (I put "gears" in parentheses, for in a CRT you do NOT have gears as in a Manual Or Conventional Automatic Transmission, see the comment on CRT below for details).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuously_variable_transmission

A similar System was used in the Honda Hybrids (Except the early Honda Hybrids you could get with a five speed manual transmissions AND a CRT transmissions, but later Honda Hybrids were all CRT Transmissions).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Insight

The Chevrolet Volt is a Series Hybrid:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt


As to original topic, whether we we talking of an electric Bicycle (A Parallel hybrid system) or a diesel Locomotive (A series Hybrid system) does not matter, both systems require two energy supply system, one based on electrical power, the other another source of power (oil for Diesel Locomotives, pedaling with your feet for an electric Bicycle).

Yes, technically a Diesel Locomotive does NOT use batteries to store excessive power while the diesel engine is idling, but that is changing

http://www.industrytap.com/ges-hybrid-locomotive-moves-a-ton-of-freight-500-miles-on-a-gallon-of-fuel/4226

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_train

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/07/3422342/hybrid-diesel-electric-trains/

[ericson00]

4. Definitely doesn't help that car companies

don't make as many as they should, which is probably because they make less of a profit margin on them. I really hope Musk gets the 30k electric car out sooner than later.

[Bill USA]

6. the auto manufacturers make what sells. A big factor in why a car sells is the price-tag.

[ericson00]

7. they could lower the price if the CEOs and other executives got just a bit less

a year, or maybe they cut their dividends a few cents. Pure greed. I do think a good solution would be tax incentives from the government. This issue needs to be pushed harder by politicians.

[Bill USA]

11. I attribute exhorbitant CEO pay to the financialization of our businesses. CEO's get a lot of

remuneration in stock options. This leads the CEOs to run the companies in a way that keeps the stock attractive to stock traders to keep the stock price up. This results in short term management perspectives. IT's better for society if the companies were run with long term goals of making the company stronger and growing. that's why we need a financial transactions tax. --- it won't solve every problem but it would help.