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Bill USA

(6,436 posts)
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 07:42 PM Apr 2015

with cheaper gas, Hybrid sales crash (but Prius, non plug-in, off only slightly)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/04/21/earth-day-electric-ev-hybrid-dissatisfied-suv/26121125/
"For better or worse, it looks like many hybrid and EV owners are driven more by financial motives rather than a responsibility to the environment," says Edmunds.com Director of Industry Analysis Jessica Caldwell. "Three years ago, when gas was at near-record highs, it was a lot easier to rationalize the price premiums on alternative fuel vehicles. But with today's gas prices as low as they are, the math just doesn't make a very compelling case."

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Sales of the Nissan Leaf, the best -selling EV in the U.S., are down 27.2% the first quarter this year in a new-vehicle market up 5.6%, says Autodata.

Toyota's Prius gas-electric hybrid is down 7.7%; the plug-in version, fell 61.4%, Autodata says.

Overall, only 45% of this year's hybrid and EV trade-ins have involved the purchase of another alternative-power vehicle, Edmunds data show. That's down from slightly more than 60% in 2012 and is the first time the rate has fallen below 50%.


Hybrid cars, March 2015 dashboard



This is why we should have massively increased methanol production, add that to ethanol, which is pretty close to it's limit without affecting crop prices, and required auto manufacturers to sell FFVs that can handle methanol+ethanol gasoline blends AND take full advantage of the octane boost with alcohol and get better mpg than on gasoline. This would just about double the GHG reduction EPA states for ethanol (using the 10th percentile for ethanol instead of the representative 50th (median)). THis is the most effective and practical way to make the quickest reduction in GHG production from cars and trucks. But, alas, it ain't as 'sexy' as higher tech solutions which, being more costly, will always suffer when oil prices slump.

[font size="+1"]..Let the rage begin....[/font]


[font size="5"]What me worry? [/font]

24 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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with cheaper gas, Hybrid sales crash (but Prius, non plug-in, off only slightly) (Original Post) Bill USA Apr 2015 OP
Got a great price on a Chevy Volt in January. Thanks, asshole SUV byers! NYC_SKP Apr 2015 #1
we often hear that the median income in US is around $50,000, but that's not the important statistic Bill USA Apr 2015 #2
Used Volts are now Kelvin Mace Apr 2015 #10
Interesting. That's a significant difference! nt NYC_SKP Apr 2015 #12
I like the Volt madokie Apr 2015 #4
If i understand correctly Kelvin Mace Apr 2015 #7
Mostly, you are correct. NYC_SKP Apr 2015 #13
I want one now for sure madokie Apr 2015 #15
Seriously, the most fun are regular days with fewer than 30 miles. All electric all day. NYC_SKP Apr 2015 #16
Thirty miles per day would cover 95% or our driving madokie Apr 2015 #17
In a few years, maybe. NYC_SKP Apr 2015 #18
I'm thinking in about 2 maybe 3 years madokie Apr 2015 #19
Excellent car Kelvin Mace Apr 2015 #6
And forward thinking folks KNOW ... 1StrongBlackMan Apr 2015 #3
Unfortunately tax credits Kelvin Mace Apr 2015 #11
Context is important, Edmunds provides none Kelvin Mace Apr 2015 #5
just curious, but do you have any links for 4 cents and 5-7 cents per mile? Bill USA Apr 2015 #8
4 cents a mile is based on my own experiences (2012 Leaf) Kelvin Mace Apr 2015 #9
IOW you are just looking at operating costs. Buyers will consider initial price and trade in value Bill USA Apr 2015 #21
Well, used models are available Kelvin Mace Apr 2015 #22
No links necessary, just do the math: NYC_SKP Apr 2015 #20
Admittedly customerserviceguy Apr 2015 #14
I'm all for those who can afford them buying hybrids. THis will help move the technology along. But Bill USA Apr 2015 #23
There are probably enough used ones out there customerserviceguy Apr 2015 #24
 

NYC_SKP

(68,644 posts)
1. Got a great price on a Chevy Volt in January. Thanks, asshole SUV byers!
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 07:46 PM
Apr 2015

Truck and SUV sales rose, sedan sales fell.

People are stupid.

Bill USA

(6,436 posts)
2. we often hear that the median income in US is around $50,000, but that's not the important statistic
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 07:53 PM
Apr 2015

The average income for the bottom 90% is $31,000.



 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
10. Used Volts are now
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 08:55 PM
Apr 2015

available for $13-$17k depending on mileage. Used Leaves are about $500 more.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
4. I like the Volt
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 08:12 PM
Apr 2015

I have a question for you though. When you've gone the distance that the batteries will take you and the generator/engine starts how does it do this. Is it a constant speed engine or does it vary as your speed changes. If I understand it right the car runs off the batteries and electric motor and the gasoline engine is connected to a generator/alternator to recharge the battery and to provide the electric motor the current it needs for whatever speed you are driving.

you can pm me this if you don't want to post it in the thread, due to possible people who don't or won't or can't understand what we're talking about.

I like the Volt and would have bought one if I could have swung it with my wife when we purchased our focus. Too new technology for her to accept at this point though.

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
7. If i understand correctly
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 08:36 PM
Apr 2015

The Volt is always running off its electric motor. Once the battery is exhausted, the on board ICE kicks in and provide generator power to the motor. The one I test drove was noisy enough to hear, but still pretty quiet. The 2016 model is supposed to be quieter and burn regular gas instead of premium.

The current model will run 30-40 miles on battery, whereas the next gen version is supposed to hit 50 miles. That is enough range to cover 90% of Americans daily commutes.

I drive a Leaf and can tell you that after a few months, you do not want to drive gas cars again. They are quiet, have excellent pickup and MUCH simpler to maintain. No oil changes, transmissions, water pumps, radiators, starters, fuel pumps, belts or hoses to fix/replace. Brakes last 2-3 times longer since thanks to regen braking, the car will slow down on the drag caused by generating electricity.

 

NYC_SKP

(68,644 posts)
13. Mostly, you are correct.
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 09:51 PM
Apr 2015

Standard hybrids use the gas motor differently and it's harder on the motor and drive train, IMO.

Once the battery pack is exhausted, the Volt uses the gas motor to generate electricity, true, and tends to run at a constant RPM but you can hear this increase when demand is greater. Still, much different than the Prius I traded in.

The drive train has a unique planetary gear component that will allow the gas motor to engage the physical drive train but only under rare circumstances, like at high speed up hills, and just in those rare instances it's behaving like a parallel hybrid.

So, first 32-40 miles are all electric, even at 85 MPH, that's all electric and all day. Overnight it's charged with an ordinary outlet.

After that it's still electric but with the gas motor running in the background part or most of the time for those extra miles.

If you rarely go beyond 30 miles in a day, then you'll rarely use any gas at all.

And the back seats fold down flat for a nice full cargo area- the Ford Fusion Energi doesn't do that (I like the body styling tho).

madokie

(51,076 posts)
15. I want one now for sure
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 11:43 PM
Apr 2015

Thanks.

Its hard to find that information on how the system works exactly so I wasn't sure, now I know for sure.

 

NYC_SKP

(68,644 posts)
16. Seriously, the most fun are regular days with fewer than 30 miles. All electric all day.
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 11:50 PM
Apr 2015

It's pretty quick and totally quiet.

I found mine with only 8,200 miles on the odometer priced at $21,500.

And 115 volt charging from a regular outlet is all you need, just plug in at night, though it will take 240 Volt charging and you can install that yourself.

Shop around, I had good luck with Carmax in selling my parents' car and this time they gave me a very good price on the old Prius, I was surprised.



madokie

(51,076 posts)
17. Thirty miles per day would cover 95% or our driving
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 11:59 PM
Apr 2015

Probably more like 98% of our driving.
I don't think I can do it right now due to the money we'd loose on the focus if we were to sell it at 2 years old. Its a 2014 purchased on 8=20-13.

 

NYC_SKP

(68,644 posts)
18. In a few years, maybe.
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 12:10 AM
Apr 2015

And by that time there will be more and more public chargers available, but also more new battery electric vehicles to choose from, so Volt's prices might be further reduced.

madokie

(51,076 posts)
19. I'm thinking in about 2 maybe 3 years
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 12:14 AM
Apr 2015

we can make the change without it hurting us to much.

I really like the styling of the Volt

 

1StrongBlackMan

(31,849 posts)
3. And forward thinking folks KNOW ...
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 07:55 PM
Apr 2015

this is exactly when we need to INCREASE subsidies (federal treasury) on green energy products!

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
11. Unfortunately tax credits
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 09:00 PM
Apr 2015

for a lot of green tech are expiring in the next year or two with very little chance of renewal. My state (NC) imposed a $200 tax on BEVs to make up for their not using gasoline, is more than an SUV would pay during normal driving. The GOP controlled government is also looking to allow all credits for solar and wind systems expire at year's end.

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
5. Context is important, Edmunds provides none
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 08:21 PM
Apr 2015

The 2nd generation Volt with greater electric range is coming out this Summer. A 200 mile range vehicle (Bolt) is due in 2016' around the same tome that Nissan will bring out it's 2nd gen Leaf with 160 mile range. Price drops are expected on the two 2nd gen vehicles, possibly around $5,000.

Tesla is also supposed to come out with its $40K Model 3 with a 200 mile range sometime in the next 18-24 months.

People are waiting to buy so they don't sink a lot of money into a loan/lease, when better cars are on the way.

Even at $2 a gallon, ICE vehicles cost 8-12 cents a mile to operate versus 4 cents for an electric, and 5-7 cents a mile for a hybrid.

Bill USA

(6,436 posts)
8. just curious, but do you have any links for 4 cents and 5-7 cents per mile?
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 08:44 PM
Apr 2015

I guess this is operating cost.

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
9. 4 cents a mile is based on my own experiences (2012 Leaf)
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 08:52 PM
Apr 2015

of 4 miles per kWh at 14 cents per kWh from my utility bill. Hybrids such as the Prius V and C get 40/50 mpg, so take the average price of gas in your area and divide by the mpg rating. The average ICE vehicle gets 25 mpg, so again divide your gas price by 25.

 

Kelvin Mace

(17,469 posts)
22. Well, used models are available
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 08:52 PM
Apr 2015

for around $13-$17K depending on mileage. I personally don't worry about resale value since I tend to drive cars for ten years or so. Once the next gen Volt comes out, the first gen cars will be bargains, same thing for the Leaf in 2016.

I think BEV and PHEVs resale values are going to follow more of the computer pricing model. The first generation PCs were about $15,000 in today's inflation adjusted dollars, and lost value at an accelrated rate as the market heated up. Each new generation got a little cheaper out of the door, until today where you will pay about $5000 for the latest tech, and 4-5 year old PCs go for about 10%-25% of there original value.

My guess is the older Volts will drop below $10K when the new generation starts shipping in volume, say mid 2016. The first gen Leaves will probaby drop below $9000 in mid 2017. Once people begin to undrstand that a car that has a 60-80 mile range is perfectly fine for most of their needs, these vehicles will be a bargain to buy, operate and maintain.

 

NYC_SKP

(68,644 posts)
20. No links necessary, just do the math:
Thu Apr 23, 2015, 12:26 AM
Apr 2015

My Chevy Volt goes 30 miles on 10 kWh of electricity.

1 kWh costs $0.12 national average. That's 30 miles for $1.20 worth of electricity, or $0.04/mile.

A growing number of workplaces allow you to charge for free.

customerserviceguy

(25,183 posts)
14. Admittedly
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 10:10 PM
Apr 2015

the payoff on spending extra for my Hybrid Sonata (over the regular one) is extended, but it's nice to have the security of being able to get about 500 miles to a tank of gas. The next time we have a severe weather event like Hurricane Sandy coming, all I have to do is top off that tank, and I will be able to get by until full power is restored again.

One thing that helped in the purchase, Hyundai financed that hybrid at zero percent interest for a full sixty months, and that was with some heavy holiday rebates at the end of December, 2012. I had expected that gasoline prices would rise to the $5-6 a gallon level, but if they don't for the rest of the time I own the car (until the wheels fall off), I'll still make out OK if gas stays below four bucks a gallon.

Bill USA

(6,436 posts)
23. I'm all for those who can afford them buying hybrids. THis will help move the technology along. But
Tue Apr 28, 2015, 07:17 PM
Apr 2015

the cost of this technology means it will take a long time for enough hybrids to be on the road to make a significant dent in our GHG emissions from light transportation vehicles. And time is something we are VERY SHORT of, when you are talking about dealing with GW.

average income of bottom 90%: $31,000

customerserviceguy

(25,183 posts)
24. There are probably enough used ones out there
Wed Apr 29, 2015, 12:26 AM
Apr 2015

to make buying one feasible for someone who can't swing financing on a new one. As for mine, my hands will be gripping that steering wheel until the other four wheels fly off the car, and I plan on maintaining the hell out of it. Hyundai did tests on the lithium polymer battery, and only found a 10% reduction in efficiency after 300K miles. That's why they warrant the battery for as long as the first owner owns the car.

There are more and more out there, since I bought this one a couple of years ago, I'm much more cognizant of them than I used to be.

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