Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumThe anomaly has gone below 2 million
Not only does it look like this is about the fifth time it's gone below 2m, but it also appears to be about 6 weeks early for such shenanigans.
dballance
(5,756 posts)phantom power
(25,966 posts)where "normal" is defined as the mean over 1979 - 2008 (note this range actually includes the infamous 2007 record-low-coverage year).
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)taken from this site: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
Long story short, unless something changes, we're on our way to a record low ice area this year.
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)The comparison with 2007 (which was the Year of Doom) is shocking:
phantom power
(25,966 posts)XemaSab
(60,212 posts)patrice
(47,992 posts)NickB79
(19,297 posts)There's way more ice up near Alaska compared to 2007, but much less ice above central Russia than before.
Anyone know what's driving the different melting patterns?
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)Complicated answer: the Arctic dipole anomaly.
happyslug
(14,779 posts)FedUpWithIt All
(4,442 posts)No pun intended.
Melted sea ice means more heat in the exposed water, correct? Further accelerating the issue?
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)I was looking for a way to dig back to the 2007 comparison image, but hadn't found it yet. Thanks.
I hate to say it, but that's about what I was expecting to see.
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)is that in 2007, it was a solid pack.
All that red area in the 2012 image is loose floes.
In 2007, the weather conditions were particularly conducive to melting. Since then, the weather had been conducive to retaining ice, but it's still going.
If we got weather conditions like 2007, the Arctic would be virtually ice-free this year.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)Maybe even beat its earliest opening by a couple of weeks. The August PIOMAS anomaly should be damned interesting too...
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Santa is gonna be on ice floes by September, not solid ice.
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)the frozen ice planet of Hoth.
It's terrifying how little pink and purple there is on that image today (8/3).
NickB79
(19,297 posts)The new normal.
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)It happened four times before, twice in 2007 and twice in 2011. Both record minimum years in the CT SIA data set had a first small dip a couple of weeks before the minimum, and a bigger one during the period of re-freeze:
First dip 2007: Aug. 19th - Aug. 23rd
Big dip 2007: Sep. 25th - Oct.29th (reaching the record anomaly of -2.635 million km2)
First dip 2011:Aug. 24th - Aug. 25th
Big dip 2011: Oct. 13th - Oct. 24th (reaching -2.224 million km2)
This year the negative anomaly has dipped below 2 million km2 on July 17th, more than a month earlier than the previous earliest record.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/07/ct-sia-anomaly-drops-below-2-million-km2.html
joshcryer
(62,287 posts)emmadoggy
(2,142 posts)joshcryer
(62,287 posts)It's madness.
demguy_5692
(41 posts)Scary stuff.
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Systematic Chaos
(8,601 posts)Save me the trouble of spending until next month trying to figure it out on my own?
XemaSab
(60,212 posts)Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Systematic Chaos
(8,601 posts)emmadoggy
(2,142 posts)7/17 to 7/23!!
Yikes.
Edit: oops, meant to post this as a reply to Xemasab's Cryosphere post, upthread.