Arctic Sea Ice 2012 update 6: piggy bank

[XemaSab]

(These paragraphs are selected from throughout the article.)

As expected the speedy decrease slowed down considerably, but enough was going on all around the Arctic for the 2012 SIE and SIA trend lines to stay close to the bottom years. That big low-pressure system definitely left a mark all over the Arctic, see for instance the holes in the ice pack on this satellite image for June 26th. It is very reminiscent of 2010, but earlier this time around. And those highs over the Siberian coast? I think they had something to do with SST anomaly charts needing extra colours.

Everything is pointing towards a lot of savings in this respect, and interest will probably be high too. But 2012 also has a little piggy bank of melting potential that the other years with low SIE and SIA did not have. While melting very rapidly on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, 2012 decrease is still relatively slow in easy ice places like Hudson Bay and the Greenland Sea. If the weather allows 2012 to break that little piggy bank we will witness another radical nosedive.

So what the ECMWF model forecasted, came about: a low moved over the Beaufort Sea, increasing cloudiness and bringing the Beaufort Gyre to a grinding halt. This was the main reason that SIE and SIA decrease slowed down. But as we can see, the blue cyclone has disappeared and some yellow has started to reappear. This is already getting reflected in the numbers, with decrease on the increase again, which just goes to show how poised the Arctic still is for rapid decline.

Update conclusion

Arctic sea ice decrease had a small hiccup that lasted about 10 days, but 2012 remained close to the other big melt years 2010 and 2011, and now it looks like the weather will give it another turbo boost. Right around the start of July, one of the most important months in the melting season (especially for extent). Clear skies will do destruction, but the winds will determine whether this second nosedive of the melting season will be just a nosedive, or the mother of all nosedives.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/07/asi-2012-update-6-piggy-bank.html

[phantom power]

1. "a nosedive, or the mother of all nosedives"

is there a choice (c) ?

[XemaSab]

2. I suppose technically there's

(c) a total breakdown of the circulation system in the North Atlantic/Arctic, causing the ice to stagnate.

Would that be more to your liking?

[joshcryer]

3. Needs graphics.

[joshcryer]

4. A comment from an aptly named poster there:

In regard to sea ice melt and GHG's,

Barrow has recorded an anomaly of approx 70 ppbv in the last part of June.

The annual-monthly pattern looked "normal" at around 1865 ppbv in mid-June. The next three CH4 readings have been between 1935-1940.

Whether this is due to melt and algae bloom, methane release from permafrost, or other sources, or just bad data - time will tell.

Posted by: Apocalypse4Real | July 03, 2012 at 13:18

I can't find the data they're talking about but it sets off my alarmist bells.