W/O Substantive Global Change, 2050 Beckons: Desertification, Mass Extinctions, Invasives, Fire On The Menu

[hatrack]

The continued destruction of nature across the planet will result in major shocks to food supplies and safe water, the disappearance of unique species and the loss of landscapes central to human culture and leisure by the middle of this century, experts have warned. By 2050, if humanity does not follow through on commitments to tackle the five main drivers of nature loss critical natural systems could break down just as the human population is projected to peak.

The Guardian asked leading scientists, Indigenous leaders and conservationists around the world about the consequences of inaction on biodiversity loss by the middle of this century. Despite 1 million plant and animal species at risk of extinction, and in the face of wildfires, floods and extreme weather intensifying due to the climate crisis, nature conservation is increasingly becoming a part of the culture wars raging in many countries, which have spurred opposition to many environmental policies.

Not taking action by the middle of the century may result in extinctions, the rapid spread of invasive species (often bringing new diseases), plastic pollution on a vast scale, crashing fish populations and disappearing forests, experts from every continent have warned. More than a quarter of all plant and animal species that have had in-depth conservation assessments are at risk of extinction, according to the IUCN red list.

“It fills me with pain to watch the never-ending destruction of natural ecosystems in my home country – Brazil,” said Alexandre Antonelli, director of science at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew. “From the Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests to the Cerrado shrublands, trees that are home to myriad insects and orchids, soils teeming with fungi and micro-organisms, and land that jaguars and toucans inhabited for millennia are being brutally lost. The drivers of biodiversity loss are real, and there for anyone to see. Science provides powerful solutions, but time is running out.”

EDIT
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/a-biodiversity-catastrophe-how-the-world-could-look-in-2050-unless-we-act-now-aoe

[2naSalit]

1. And famine too!

[Think. Again.]

2. K&R

[OnlinePoker]

3. Despite 1 million plant and animal species at risk of extinction...

Where do the get this figure? The most accurate numbers I find are in the IUCN Red List and this is what they say:

"Note that since extinction risk has been evaluated for less than 5% of the world's described species (see Table 1), IUCN cannot provide a precise estimate for how many of the planet's species are threatened."

https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/summary-statistics#Summary%20Tables

Of the 150,388 they have evaluated (out of a goal of 160,000) 42,100 are threatened. The only way they could get the million species at risk is by extrapolating, but it's not a very scientific measure.

[NNadir]

4. How would that differ from 2023. It is not useful to engage in soothsaying as if it isn't here and now.

It is here and now.