I want to share some info RE: V2G - I have some questions

[Finishline42]

It's an investment advisory on Tesla but I was wondering if it's realistic or he's just a dreamer.

First question relates to this >>>
The Tesla tri-motor Cyber Truck can hold enough electrical energy to power a home for more than one week. And if you run out, you could drive the truck down to a local supercharger, fill up with electrons, drive home and have power for another week of the utility being shut down. In fire country the tri-motor Cyber Truck will sell like hotcakes once V2G is enabled.

Power a home for more than a week? Is this real? I know it depends on how big a house, etc but scale-wise is it even realistic?

2nd Question >>>

To connect existing cars to the grid, Tesla will need to tell customers that when their battery capacity drops to around 75%, they can simply have the battery pack swapped out for a new million-mile battery pack. The money to be made from V2G is so huge for Tesla that I expect Tesla will tell customers this battery swap will be very low cost or even free of charge.

This I completely doubt. Everything I have heard is that it's very difficult to replace the battery pack on a Tesla - but maybe the Cyber-truck is designed differently?

3rd Q >>>

I also expect this is why J.B. Straubel is opening Redwood Materials to recycle lithium ion batteries. Today, there aren't enough batteries to recycle so opening this company makes no sense (to me). But if Tesla opens V2G to all Tesla vehicles, it will begin to generate a lot of batteries in need of recycling. I think they are building the recycling facility they will soon need, in advance of needing it.


This has always been the down the road reality. One of the main points detractors of EV's has been what to do with all the batteries. And the answer is always if there are enough of them somebody will built a business on recycling them.

4th and last Q >>>

It remains to be learned how much income individuals will be given out of the funds derived from the utilities. A friend with 54kWh of Tesla Power Wall batteries said he is supposed to receive around $100/mo for grid services. This means the Tesla Model Y and 3 would earn around $100 per month, the 100kWh Cyber truck will earn around $200/mo and the tri-motor Cyber Truck will earn around $400/mo.


Again I doubt these are real numbers but if they were I doubt that you could count on them staying this high for the life of the vehicle.

Although if you have a Tesla with a million mile battery, it would make it worth keeping long after if was drivable.

link to article.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4355640-tesla-v2g-technology-dramatically-increase-demand-and-sales-of-all-models?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha#alt1&mail_subject=tsla-tesla-v2g-technology-could-dramatically-increase-demand-and-sales-of-all-models&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-2

[Salviati]

1. Q1 looks to be true

Average household power usage is a bit over 900 kWh a month, which works out to be a bit over 200 kWh a week, and the Cybertruck in question has a 200 kWh battery, so that would seem to check out. Again whether it can power an individual house for a week is up to the details, but scalewise seems very reasonable.

[Finishline42]

4. thank you. Good points n/m

[Miguelito Loveless]

3. For a week, probably.

Last edited Thu Jun 25, 2020, 11:27 PM - Edit history (1)

The average house uses around 33kWh a day, and the tri-motor battery pack is estimated at 200kWh (no specs have been confirmed), so maybe 5-6 days.

There are variables and other considerations. The house would have to have a transfer switch and be able to isolate the grid from the battery to meet safety requirements. Also, the Cybertruck would have to have a bi-directional inverter. While this is a decent idea, it hasn’t been implemented by Tesla so far, as it would compete with their Powerwall products.

Also, this setup only makes sense for daily use if you have a green power source (solar/wind) to recharge the truck. Definitely possible as a backup power source in emergencies. Most utilities do not allow youto “arbitrage the grid”.

As to battery life and degradation, this is highly variable depending on discharge cycles (how often you full discharge and recharge the battery). Also understand that there is power loss in the round trip into the battery and out (about 10%).

As to replacing packs, compared to pulling a motor or transmission of a gasoline car, pulling a battery pack is simple and fast.

At the rate EVs are being adopted, recycling will be a thing, and a critical industry.

Finally, as to getting paid for your power, that is an iffy proposition. Few utilities in the U.S. will pay you enough to make it worthwhile (my local utility pays 3 cents/kWh, and charges 14 cents) and tariffs vary widely. Also, you can bet that as consumers do things like this, utilities will lobby to change tariffs to make such thing unprofitable.

This doesn’t mean people won’t buy into V2G, but simply I don’t see many homeowners leveraging their Cybertruck for anything more than beer money and peace of mind. Long term though, I see EVs, once they reach a critical number on the road, being integrated into the grid for load balancing.

Whether Tesla is a good investment depends on a lot of variables. I feel it is, and own 10 shares. Your mileage may vary.

[My bona fides: EV and green energy advocate, with 2 EVs, 20kW solar array and 54kWh Powerwall storage].

[Finishline42]

5. Thank you

20 Ev's??? Currently or over the years? At any rate that's a lot of EV's!

To me the grid is like an interstate hwy with 'x' number of lanes. At rush hour it really doesn't matter how big 'x' is, there will be too many cars and bumper to bumper traffic is the result. LA and Atlanta are proof to that. But at non-peak hours you can get by with x-2 or -3 lanes. And you get free flowing traffic.

Although the ideal is to have enough PV at home and home storage, it seems to me that even if you charge the battery of your EV from the grid off peak, if it is connected to the grid at peak demand periods you are adding lanes to the grid. Which is what the real value of grid scale battery storage is. It keeps a utility from having to keep a fossil fuel power plant at the ready, burning fossil fuel but not generating anything. Ready to go, burning coal or natgas, just waiting... Because the boiler that produces steam that drives the turbines has to be up to temp when the demand shows up.

I agree on the getting paid for your power part. No matter what the deal is today, tomorrow it won't be to the individual's advantage - it will be to the utility's advantage, if they have anything to say about it. But having a vehicle that could help power your home is a hell of a backup.

[Miguelito Loveless]

6. Umm...typo. 2 not 20.

Ack!

Agree that anything that allows less burning of FF is desirable. Which is why I went with solar. During day I recharge my battery, charge a car, power the house, and power several other houses on my block, which reduces load on coal-fired plant supplying some of my utilities power. At night my house runs off the battery, instead of grid. One less house to fuel.

My neighbor up the road just added a 10kW array to his roof, and another has been asking me questions. In six years we went from burning 800+ gallons of gasoline a year to zero, and about $2000 a year in electricity, to $0 (we are still paying our utility $180 a year for the privilege of being their customer.

Our final project is to replace our gas furnace with geothermal once it wears out.

[Finishline42]

7. Makes more sense

But 2 EV's is 2 more than I have. Don't drive much lately so that doesn't look to change anytime soon.

Had a 4kW system installed last year. Look to add to it at some point. Sunny days always brings a smile but more so these days.

Thought about going electric when my 20 yr old gas furnace kicks the bucket but probably doesn't make sense with gas as cheap as it is, although I expect that will not always be the case. Not enough room for geothermal.

Local utility wasn't satisfied with a monthly service charge on gas and electric - they went to a daily rate - $.45 for electric and $.65 for gas. So I pay just over $400 a year for service. Back in 2008 the charge was $5 and $8.50 - talk about inflation!

[Miguelito Loveless]

8. You might want to check out

air source heat pumps, which have gotten WAY more efficient these days. Depending where you live, it might make more sense than even cheap gas.

If you car gives up the ghost and you only drive a small number of miles, consider a used older model EV like the Leaf (but onlly 2015 and newer, or a PHEV Volt (2016 or newer). They are WAY cheap to buy, and have enough range to handle daily driving needs for jobs, errands, etc. The Volt is also great for distance driving, as it has 53 miles of EV range, then 350 miles on gasoline. I have a friend who bought one several years ago, and his fuel consumption dropped from 600 gallons a year, to under 50.

Monthly service charges are junk fees, pure and simple. As solar becomes more popular, utilities are raising them instead of rates.

[Finishline42]

9. Thanks

Just a bit too far north for a heat pump in our worst winters, but will consider it.

Have a friend that has a Volt and is having a similar experience. I would worry that the gas would get old haha - if that's a thing.

I noticed a lot of cheap Leaf's out there, worried about the battery (that's the make or break part of an EV - everything else is standard stuff and there's not much to break). Then I noticed that Nissan gave up making their own batteries, worked out a deal with LG Chem so I guess it's as you said, stay away from the older ones.

Also, agree on the monthly service charges. Instead of increasing cost per unit they get their money regardless of how much they sell. It also unfairly shifts costs to those that can least afford it. Fee is the same on 500 sq ft apt as a 5000 sq ft house.

My house is almost 100 yrs old. I've replaced all the windows and added insulation (blown in walls as well) increasing the fee devalues those investments.

[Miguelito Loveless]

10. Old gas is not a problem

they actually took that into consideration. If you don’t burn any fuel for 30 days, the car will inform you that it is going to fire up the ICE for a few minutes to keep the fuel system clean.

The Leaf battery problem was an issue in hot climates in pre-2015 models. It was made worse if folks were using the quick charger a lot (again, especially in hot weather). The Volt’s battery is quite robust. L1 (110v) and L2 (240v) charging put a lot less wear on the battery.

Shifting to fixed fees also helps them make solar less helpful economically. I hope to live long enough to see private utilities nationalized.

[Finishline42]

11. Good info

I had been wanting to buy solar for awhile. The state passed a bill that allows the utilities to change net metering. Pay me wholesale and sell it back retail. That made my decision for me. The still haven't gotten the Public Service Commission (PSC) to do that yet.

There was a push to do it nationally. Make changes to how utilities deal with solar customers. They know Solar could do to Utilities what the internet has done to newspapers. But I think if they make those changes it will only push people with solar to do as you have done - buy storage. Storage pricing is coming down (I think but Calif situation could be driving pricing up).

There will come a time when people think about buying solar not in a profit/loss calculation as most do today. The truth is when you do a bath or kitchen upgrade you don't get 100% payback. Why is that the decision point? With solar you always get your money back (as long as you buy quality panels and stay long enough) it's just a matter of how long it takes.

I had a Prius and Toyota managed the charging very well. Car has close to 200,000 on it when I sold it and it was still on the main battery.