STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Thursday, 24 August 2023

[Tansy_Gold]

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, 24 August 2023

Previous SMW:
SMW for 23 August 2023



AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 23 August 2023


Dow Jones 34,472.98 +184.15 (0.54%)
S&P 500 4,436.01 +48.46 (1.10%)
Nasdaq 13,721.03 +215.16 (1.59%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours:

Google Finance
MarketWatch
Bloomberg
Stocktwits

(click on links for latest updates)

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Currencies:













Gold & Silver:






Petroleum:

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DU Economics Group Contributor Megathreads:

Progree's Economic Statistics (with links!)
mahatmakanejeeves' Rail Safety Megathread
mahatmakanejeeves' Oil Train Safety Megathread

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Quote for the Day:

Rome and Britain are archetypes of the dilemma of combining democracy at home with an empire abroad. In the Roman case, they decided to hang on to the empire and lost their democracy. In the British case, they chose the opposite: in order to remain democratic they dumped their empire and military apparatus after World War II. For us, the choice is between the Roman and British precedents.

Chalmers Johnson. Nemesis: The Last Days of the American Republic. Henry Holt and Co. / Metropolitan Books. © 2006.

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Did you see that consumer spending is way down? Because Covid Emergency over

I offer these observations.

Double SNAP ended in March, and Covid emergency in April. Now food prices are retreating. In ALDI yesterday, ice cream down 16 cents. National foreign owned super retailer suddenly has specials on house brand canned goods. 5 cans, 3 bucks. This is 20,30 cents off regular retail. They only do this because merchandise isn't moving. The high price food of 2023 is still sitting on the shelves as new harvests are arriving. What are we going to do with all this food?

In other news, retailers still reporting theft in the grandest of larceny dimensions, widespread. This impacted footlocker, Target, Nike. (Boy did I get spanked). Somehow people are stealing goods and it's hurting the bottom line.

Interest rates are rising. Recession begins soon? Like September?

[Tansy_Gold]

2. My observations plus $1.50 might get you a cup of coffee

I haven't bought a cup of coffee anywhere for 20 years, so I have no idea how much it costs, but here's what I think, just for the sake of conversation.

1. I think during COVID and for a significant period after the serious emergency had passed, people stocked up. They were afraid of shortages again and bought more when they were able to. Now that various financial assists due to COVID are being stopped, people are dipping into their own stockpiles and don't need to buy as much. Major retailers don't think far enough ahead to plan for this. For a while there in 2020, shelves were about as bare as they could be, but now stuff isn't moving and they can't figure it out.

2. "Shrinkage" has always been a problem, and retailers who were profitable just wrote it off. Now that people are shopping online more -- again, a side-effect of COVID -- brick and mortar retailers are less profitable and can't write off the shrinkage. They can, however, use it as an excuse for why their profits have fallen. Drop in stock price leads to more buy-backs? I dunno on that one.

3. The price of ice cream, since you brought it up, has fluctuated here worse than a Cedar Point roller coaster. One brand can be $7.99 for a 1.5 quart carton ($20/gallon!!!!) one week, and $3.99 the next, then back to $5.99, then $6.99, then back to $4.49. Another brand goes in the opposite direction. In the end, all the brands hit that $7.99 peak for a while, then drop back down. Even the store brands rise and fall dramatically. I think it's all a ploy to get shoppers to sign up for online "coupons" that enable more tracking of individual shopping trends. This may work for those shoppers who have more disposable income and can indulge in impulse buying, but I doubt it works as well on those of limited means who tend to shop more carefully.

For whatever it's worth, I'm not a heavy shopper. I have very little idea what anything other than groceries costs these days. In fact, speaking of Nike, I need to buy a new pair of sneakers and realized yesterday that I haven't bought any since 2005. I have no idea what those cost then -- cheap at Target -- and less than no idea what they cost now.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. Interesting, and none of it inconsistent with the Covid payout theory

Nike? My advice, avoid mesh shoes. They tear and wear. Now you have far fewer choices. Most brands still sell in the $45-75 range retail. But most are mesh. My Asics are 15 months old and read for the trash. The glue, mesh, and vinyl couldn't take punishment and rain. High end Nikes, the running shoes of today, can top $175. But the emphasis up there is lightweight, sturdy, and that leads to fabric uppers.

The sturdiest I've seen recently in non mesh was Nike Air Monarch at Kohls, about $52-70. Thicker vinyl than the others but no one vinyls like it's 1995 anyway. That is a cross-training shoe.

Honorable mention and not well investigated, also non-mesh was a FILA shoe, also at Kohls. About $40 as I recall, but haven't seen them in a year. I think FILA is behind the times in reducing materials for lightweight and cost.

I suppose it's time to shop online. I saw nothing at DSW, Rack, Encore, and Shoe Carnival, which will get just about anything you want. I did go to Dicks recently, and it was disappointing for the same reasons: lightweight mesh was all on display. They cited shrinkage too. How do people walk out with shoes and not get caught? Is that what they're saying?

[Tansy_Gold]

4. Without giving any . . . . suggestions

Shoplifting is relatively easy, and I suspect it's easier now in stores with self-checkout. Shoes are easy to steal. Clothes are easier. Even groceries can be stolen.

Poorly paid employees steal all the time, and help their friends steal, too. When I worked at Walmart almost 30 years ago, minimum wage employees routinely stole and/or damaged merchandise out of spite. Minimum wage hasn't gone up, so I suspect sabotage and theft have. Not to be too cynical, but sometimes it's difficult to be scrupulously honest when you're making $7.25/hour and the manager gets a $50K annual bonus for keeping the payroll low.

[DemReadingDU]

5. Self-checkout

I have heard/read that a lot can be easily shop-lifted using those self-checkouts. Companies lose a lot of money too.

If companies do lose a lot of money, then why do they install those self-checkouts? I hate those devices. I always try to use a human to check out my items and to keep their job.

Unless they don't lose as much money from shop-lifters as it costs more to pay humans?

Or claim losses due to theft to avoid paying taxes?

[Tansy_Gold]

6. Self-checkout, true story

This happened just a few weeks go.

I usually shop early in the morning to avoid crowds and heat, but the store I usually go to rarely has a live cashier before 8:00 a.m. so I'm often left with just U-Scan, as it's called.

I didn't have a whole lot of items that day: some produce, ice cream, a few other things, and a jar of pepperoncini peppers. I went through the standard self-checkout, chatting with the supervising cashier while doing so. There were no problems, and I know most of the codes for the produce. Our conversation was friendly and person -- I've been shopping there for a long time -- with nothing out of the ordinary. I paid, bagged my groceries, put the bags in the cart, and left.

When I arrived at my car to put the groceries in, I discovered I had never scanned and paid for the jar of peppers. I checked my receipt just to make sure, and nope, I had missed them because they rolled to the back of the cart under the child seat where my purse had been resting. So I stashed my groceries in the car, took the jar of peppers back into the store to pay for them.

It was harder to explain to the cashier what had happened -- no, they weren't left in the cart by a previous shopper; yes, they're mine; yes, I missed them; yes, I want to pay for them -- and then deal with her surprise than it probably would have been to just toss the damn things in one of the other bags and drive home with a free jar of peppers.

Don't want to pay for the expensive organic tomatoes? Key in the code for the cheaper Romas and no one knows the difference. Same with apples. It happens all the time. My local Kroger chain outlet virtually requires the cashiers to scan all produce codes rather then key them in because yes, even the cashiers are cheating. Maybe just for friends or family or favorite customers, but yeah, it's rampant. And I suspect it's now so ingrained in the culture that even raising wages to something approaching livable for so many low-income people won't root it out.

It's too bad, I guess, that the big retailers are now feeling the pinch for so much of their inventory being, well, pinched. Maybe they should have thought about the consequences a long time ago.

[DemReadingDU]

7. I just get in and get out quickly, but

I'm going to be paying attention to those codes now.

Hope your ice cream didn't melt! Maybe you bring those pre-frozen blocks of coolant to keep things cold from that hot Arizona temps!

[Tansy_Gold]

8. As a former retail cashier, grocery store and otherwise,

I've seen a lot of the ways people try to beat the system, whether it's swapping price tags, putting things in pockets of other things they're buying, putting $40 shoes in a box for $15 shoes, and on and on and on. None of this surprises me. None of it. And you can expect it to continue to get worse.

For a long time, Walmart had a policy of not chasing down even the most blatant of shoplifters. That should tell you how inflated even their cheap prices are.

Internal theft is a whole different -- and uglier -- story.