Get used to an up and down recovery: Economy sags as coronavirus cases surge (MarketWatch)

[Mike 03]

MarketWatch
Published: July 18, 2020 at 8:00 a.m. ET
Jeffry Bartash

New wave of COVID-19 cases robs the U.S. economy of momentum

Just when it seemed safe to get out and about, the coronavirus epidemic has come back with a vengeance and sidetracked a fragile U.S. economic recovery.

There’s no doubt the economic rebound has lost steam in July. The big question is just how much.

The answer probably won’t be available for a few more weeks through the normal channels of government and other long-standing economic reports that come out monthly.

Yet an array of new-fangled indicators from off-the-beaten track private sector sources such as Homebase and Kronos already show the damage has been done.

Hiring tapered off in early July at retailers, restaurants and other small and medium-sized businesses amid a surge in COVID-19 cases in states such as California, Texas, Florida and Arizona.

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/get-used-to-an-up-and-down-recovery-economy-sags-as-coronavirus-cases-surge-2020-07-18

[beachbumbob]

1. the market is being held artificially up by federal reserve policies and trump corporate

giveaways. Its at an artificial level totally disconnected from economic reality and pumped with COVID vaccine bullshit is a coming just like the chinese trade deals that have fallen flat

[Warpy]

2. Retail and mid level restaurants were already on the ropes

before this bug was discovered in China. Retail has been barely hanging on for a while, and don't blame Amazon for that any more than you blame the Sears Roebuck catalog for the Great Depression, this is a symptom of a greater disease.

Shopping malls are seeing all sorts of stores closing and have for a long time, it's why videos exploring dead malls have been popping up like mushrooms on You Tube. People just don't have the money to go to a mall, engage in retail therapy, eat a fast food court lunch, and lug home the spoils. Shopping has died because people are broke. Online shopping can be a PIA and search algorithms are crappy, so that didn't do it. Add in the shipping, online shopping is often pricier than bricks and mortar stores. Those stores are going under because people are simply unable to spend.

The virus just closed the lid on the coffin, the economy was already pretty much dead. Cheap labor conservatives in both parties plus a massive shift of wealth away from the workers who generated it to the owning class have killed off the demand side of the equation.

It's incredibly sad and few in either party are willing to talk about what's happening out there. This is their end game, and I don't see any way out that doesn't involve a collapse greater than the 2008 crash, one that will frighten the billionaires into accepting true reforms.

I certainly don't expect anything out of the present debacle parading as our government.

[flying rabbit]

3. +1 nt

[progree]

4. The number of people claiming benefits for the week ending July 18 increased by 1.3 million

according to this morning's unemployment insurance claims report:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 18 was 32,118,678, an increase of 1,302,816 from the previous week. There were 1,707,267 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.

Thread on this morning's unemployment insurance claims report: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142554593

The week ending July 18 (the latest data on this number), is significant in that the survey week of the Household Survey that produces tomorrow's unemployment rate and many other labor market metrics (labor force, labor force participation rate, total number of unemployed among many others) is usually the week that includes the 12th of the month.

And the Establishment Survey that produces the net number of nonfarm jobs gained (or lost) is based on pay periods that include the 12th of the month. Most employees are paid biweekly or twice a week, some are paid weekly, a few are paid monthly, anyway that report mainly captures conditions in the first half of the month.