Recession fears are flaring as Trump's trade war has markets behaving in a way...

[yallerdawg]

not seen since the financial crisis


Remember, fellow D's, "R stands for Recession" - historical fact. Do your due diligence.


Source: Business Insider, by Joe Ciolli

The metric in question is the spread between two- and 10-year Treasury yields, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2007 — the period immediately preceding the most recent financial crisis.

While short-term interest rates are almost always lower than their long-term counterparts, the difference between the two tends to tighten when investors are paying more for near-term protection. That flight to safety would seem to match the spike in investor nervousness seen as trade-war fears have escalated.

This dynamic is reflected in the chart above, which shows the so-called yield curve is not only flattening but nearing negative territory. If the two-year were to start yielding more than the 10-year — a rare occurrence known as inversion — it would signal that a recession is near, according to historical precedent.

More at: http://www.businessinsider.com/trade-war-could-cause-next-recession-fears-not-seen-since-financial-crisis-2018-6


Memorable moments of last R's watch in 2007-2008.




Remember that big tax break the R's gave us? The Dow does.

[exboyfil]

1. Democrats stop buying stuff for the next four months

Defer all major purchases.

[RKP5637]

2. tRump has no idea what he's doing. He's running the country like one of his sham

real estate deals/operations.

[tonyt53]

3. I first heard about "yield curve" in 2007. Not a perfect indicator, but a damned good one.

[elleng]

4. Been awaiting the R R.

[yallerdawg]

5. Magic 8 Ball says:

[quartz007]

6. Economy is trucking along!

I see more possibility of inflation and over heated economy than a recession. Unless you have not visited a grocery store lately, you have not seen the inflation. Everything is up, including property taxes, sales taxes, utility taxes, doctor's bills, hospital bills, health insurance premiums, and HOUSING prices. Even interest rates are creeping upwards. And the gubbermint claims there are more job openings that workers available to fill them.

Yap, I see over-heating, not a recession.

[yallerdawg]

7. 'Irrational exuberance' or 'whistling past the graveyard.'

Pick your poison.

Yes, everything is just fine.

[quartz007]

9. Insane exuberance!

based on largest tax cut in history with not a penny reduction in spending. That means biggest stimulus ever. That means a huge bubble is forming. This will not and can not end well. A prominent bank (Deutsche Bank?) has just been declared to have failed stress test by Federal Reserve.

[appalachiablue]

8. K & R.