There Was No Tie In Iowa. Clinton Won.

[Agnosticsherbet]

There Was No Tie In Iowa. Clinton Won.
First, about Iowa. I see a lot of talk about how Bernie outperformed the polls. This is not true. He actually under performed. Opinion polls measure the overall likelihood of support from the statewide populace. However, in Iowa, that is not how the contest is measured. The Iowa caucus last night determined the number of delegates from individual precincts that would be sent on to the next caucus. That’s right. There are two more caucuses in Iowa before we know the number of national delegates going to the Democratic National Convention, and who they will be for.
...
So the actual number of delegates is actually not known until later in the process. However, since there are rarely dramatic shifts in delegate alignment later in the process, traditionally we are able to make a good estimate of the number of national delegates and who they will be for. Which brings us to the actual percentage for Clinton’s victory: 52.3%.

That’s right. Of the delegates that were apportioned last night in the first in nation caucus, 23 out of 44 went to Clinton. A clear victory.

It is a great blog that discusses the arcane system and point out...

Put another way, half of all Clinton supporters nationwide would have to be abducted by aliens for Bernie to win.

So now it is important for Clinton supporters to turn to those states where Clinton has a commanding lead (which is most of them), and to the national conversation, to protect the delegate lead and to counter the anti-Clinton tea party narrative being delivered by Bernie and his supporters.

[pandr32]

1. Exactly! Now please proceed!

Let's deal in reality, and while we are at it, some gracious or gentlemanly behavior from Sanders would be nice.

[72DejaVu]

2. When the man gets more votes, it's a win

When the woman gets more votes, it's a tie.

[Cha]

3. They lost. Hillary won. No contested results.

[Cha]

4. I like this blog. Thank you, Agnosticsherbert.

And Bernie still has no path to the nomination.

First, about Iowa. I see a lot of talk about how Bernie outperformed the polls. This is not true. He actually under performed. Opinion polls measure the overall likelihood of support from the statewide populace. However, in Iowa, that is not how the contest is measured. The Iowa caucus last night determined the number of delegates from individual precincts that would be sent on to the next caucus. That’s right. There are two more caucuses in Iowa before we know the number of national delegates going to the Democratic National Convention, and who they will be for.

snip//

So now it is important for Clinton supporters to turn to those states where Clinton has a commanding lead (which is most of them), and to the national conversation, to protect the delegate lead and to counter the anti-Clinton tea party narrative being delivered by Bernie and his supporters.

Innuendo, smears, and implications are not legitimate policy comparisons. There is nothing wrong with being paid for a speech, unless you are saying that Clinton is corrupt. These tea party innuendos have no place on the left or in the Democratic party.

[Agnosticsherbet]

5. You are welcome. I consider it thoughtful and well written.

[Cha]

6. A good find.. he knows his bernie supporters.

We know that Bernie supporters can not be convinced to face reality. All of us have had those discussions online where we are told Bernie is not going to raise taxes and he does not want to abandon the ACA – even though that is exactly what he says over and over again. Clinton supporters should focus efforts on creating a new narrative, one that promotes her experience, her intelligence, and her toughness. Talk about how she has stood up to the worst Republican attacks anyone has ever had to face. Specifically cite the heartfelt and sincere endorsements of liberal and progressive leaders. Talk about her history of advocacy, her understanding of the political system, and her incredible grasp of every area of public and foreign policy. Talk about how she is fighting for us before she even gets the nomination, without being an elected official. Talk about her efforts in Flint, her efforts to preserve voting rights, and her advocacy for patients against companies like Valeant Pharmaceuticals. And yes, talk about what her candidacy means to young girls and women.

And, excellent advice!

[George II]

9. Correct, Sanders did not outperform the polls whatsoever. The polls in Iowa were merely a measure..

....of how voters going into the various caucus sites were likely to vote, state-wide.

Two things they do not take into account are:

Breakdown of voters in each district
Effect of the caucus itself - the short speeches by each candidate's representative.

Sanders had very strong support in a few districts where there were many college students and much weaker support in many of the other districts. Clinton, on the other hand had more uniform support throughout the state.

So, Sanders could have won his few strong districts by 90-10 (an exaggeration) but lost in most of his weak districts by 52-48 (another exaggeration). But all the "excess" support in those few districts was essentially "wasted" because he'd already won those districts.

This is a bizarre analogy (please don't laugh at me!), but let's look at the 1960 World Series between the NY Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates. Think of each game as an Iowa district.

Here are the scores:

New York Yankees – 4, Pittsburgh Pirates – 6
New York Yankees – 16, Pittsburgh Pirates – 3
Pittsburgh Pirates – 0, New York Yankees – 10
Pittsburgh Pirates – 3, New York Yankees – 2
Pittsburgh Pirates – 5, New York Yankees – 2
New York Yankees – 12, Pittsburgh Pirates – 0
New York Yankees – 9, Pittsburgh Pirates – 10

The Yankees scored more than twice the runs than the Pirates, yet they lost the World Series because they won three games by huge scores (+13, +10, +12!) while the Pirates won four games by smaller margins (+2, +1, +3, +1)

The result is that even though outscored overall by 30 runs the Pirates won the World Series. That, to an extreme, is how things went in Iowa on Monday. Sanders won some districts by huge margins, but Clinton won more districts by smaller margins.

[Cha]

13. Hey, I got that analogy.. Thanks! Here's some stats that are very telling and important for Hillary

Unions, Dems, and POC went for Hillary.. not the other guy.

A majority of Democratic caucus-goers, 55 percent, said the next president should generally follow Barack Obama’s policies, rather than pursue more liberal or less liberal approaches. And those who lined up with Obama were an especially strong group for Clinton, 68-26 percent vs. Sanders.

LOve it!

"Finally in the Democratic contest there’s the question of race. Whites accounted for 91 percent of Democratic caucus-goers – a lot, even if low by Iowa Democratic caucus standards. Whites also dominate in New Hampshire. But they accounted for 65 percent of voters across all Democratic primaries in 2008. And among the 9 percent of non-white Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa on Monday, Clinton won by a wide margin, 58-34 percent."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/schisms-carve-iowa-contests-leaving-murky-political-calculus/story?id=36656482

Unions~

Ari Melber
✔ ?@AriMelber
And Clinton beat Sanders among union households by 9 points, undercutting some conventional wisdom.
7:38 PM - 1 Feb 2016
189 189 Retweets 153 153 likes

SEIU
✔ ?@SEIU
@HillaryClinton won this close, hard battle with strong SEIU ground support & turn out! #ImWithHer #SEIUForHillary https://twitter.com/AriMelber/status/694394551327391744 …
4:05 AM - 2 Feb 2016
25 25 Retweets 34 34 likes

http://theobamadiary.com/2016/02/02/early-bird-chat-655/#comments

[Cha]

7. The Rational Progressive! Amen.

I got on and thanked them for what they had to say about Hillary.

The first poster there is an AA girl.. she said this.. I Liked it.

Mochaloca • 13 hours ago

He was supposed to win that state to have a path to victory. Instead we made History with a woman and a Clinton winning in Iowa!
I cannot wait for the South so we can end this primary.

[bluestateguy]

8. And I'm even man enough to congratulate Bernie on a well-run, hard fought campaign

But somehow when I state that Hillary still did win, I'm castigated by the Bernie supporters as being part of the conspiracy.

[comradebillyboy]

11. In Bernieworld all Hillary supporters are establishment oligarchs...

[NastyRiffraff]

10. This blog is a great find!

Some real gems there.

[Treant]

12. It sure is!

I'm glad it was posted, I'm rather enjoying this.