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Wed Jun 1, 2016, 10:36 PM

Mapping the 2016 Electorate: Demographics Don't Guarantee a Democratic White House

Cook Political Report -- 19 June 2015

Three Reasons for Democratic Optimism

1. The white share of the electorate is likely to fall about two percent in 2016. In 2012, Edison Research's national exit poll pegged the electorate at 72 percent white, 13 percent African-American, 10 percent Latino, and five percent Asian/Other. If the electorate changes in line with Census estimates for citizens of voting age, the 2016 electorate will be 70 percent white, 13 percent African-American, 11 percent Latino, and six percent Asian/Other.

2. Demographic shifts alone boost Democrats' national margin about 1.5 percent versus 2012.

3. Even among white voters, rising educational attainment means Republicans' core supporters are in decline. Republicans' demographic woes aren't limited to the rise of Latino and Asian voters. Over the last few decades, Democrats have done better and better with whites who hold college degrees (especially advanced degrees), while whites without a college degree have become a core element of the GOP coalition.

In 2012, each group accounted for 36 percent of the electorate. Obama carried 42 percent of white college graduates, but just 36 percent of non-college whites. In 2016, white college graduates will rise to 37 percent of the electorate. Unfortunately for Republicans, non-college whites - by far their best-performing cohort - are slated to fall three points to 33 percent as more college-educated millennials supplant conservative seniors who didn't attend college.

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Reply Mapping the 2016 Electorate: Demographics Don't Guarantee a Democratic White House (Original post)
LiberalFighter Jun 2016 OP
dubyadiprecession Jun 2016 #1
LiberalFighter Jun 2016 #2
forjusticethunders Jun 2016 #3
LiberalFighter Jun 2016 #4

Response to LiberalFighter (Original post)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 10:48 PM

1. I'd love it if there was a large enough hispanic vote in texas to flip it Blue...

The republicans would have panic attacks over that. That's the state we need to take from them.

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Response to dubyadiprecession (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 11:04 PM

2. Texas needs to increase their voter turnout for the under 65 age group.

November 2012 Texas
Total - - - 46.4%
18 to 24 - 22.5%
25 to 34 - 33.2%
35 to 44 - 42.8%
45 to 64 - 55.6%
65 + * * - 69.2%

November 2012 US
Total - - - 56.5%
18 to 24 - 38.0%
25 to 34 - 46.1%
35 to 44 - 52.9%
45 to 64 - 63.4%
65 + * * - 69.7%


Their voter turnout for Hispanics was 10 points below what it was for all of US.

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Response to LiberalFighter (Reply #2)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 11:23 PM

3. Texas is flippable

 

I don't know why the DNC doesn't make flipping Texas blue a priority. It can be done. It should have been stared 10 years ago.

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Response to forjusticethunders (Reply #3)

Wed Jun 1, 2016, 11:31 PM

4. Texas D Party should put their own plan together

When they show good progress then they can take it to DNC for more funding.

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