Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumSanders' supporters are being mislead over in their group. (More Bernie Math)
They think Sanders will win 61.25% of the votes. Now that is odd using that percent. But they are also saying based on the source used that Sanders will overtake Clinton. In addition, they do not provide any source to the polling.
Here is the math they are using based on 73% that Sanders got in Washington. Don't know why they are using Washington's 73% when they are saying California will win 61.25%.
California delegates: 546 (Actual Pledged: 475 -- Unpledged included: 548)
Sanders: 398 -- Clinton: 147. (Their split is based on both pledged and unpledged delegates - That is not how it works) The actual split would be Sanders: 347 -- Clinton: 128.
They show beginning delegates as Clinton: 1446 -- Sanders: 1202. When it should be Clinton: 1771 -- Sanders: 1499.
Using their beginning delegates vs actual beginning delegates
Clinton: 1446 +128 = 1574 * * * * (1771 + 128 = 1899)
Sandes: 1202 +347 = 1549 * * * * (1499 + 347 = 1846)
They are still short.
Using the 61% from the poll they say they have the split would be Sanders: 290 -- Clinton: 185.
Using actual beginning delegates there is a 167 delegate advantage.
1771 + 185 = 1956
1499 + 290 = 1789
DU Sanders Group
Bernie Sanders Projected To Win California With 61.25% Gaining 398 Delegates
I don't know what polling data they are using but the best I could find was RealClear Politics. FXO Nwes from mid April had the best poll for Sanders behind Clinton 48-46. Most recent poll from KABC/SurveyUSA that just ended two days ago has it Clinton 57-39. Rolling average is Clinton 51-41.5
Clinton should have about a 45 to nearly 90 delegate net win in California. Possibly about 73 if Clinton wins the state 59 - 41. That is based on the 57-39 polling.
Arkansas Granny
(31,537 posts)puffy socks
(1,473 posts)I don't see it with some of Bernie's supporters. They've dug their heels in at every turn refusing to even entertain the idea that Bernie the Incorruptible could be leading them around by the nose. it's too hard, too much foolish pride. It takes actual toughness.
JSup
(740 posts)...allow themselves to be fooled then they can't cry 'fraud', so...
Also, sometimes when you're so invested in a concept it becomes hard to turn back because you would have to admit making a mistake; I know this from experience.
TwilightZone
(25,505 posts)to be a 14-year-old in Italy who made the whole thing up.
Looking at the "data" of this new one, there's no source for the poll. It looks like it's based off of some phone calls some guy made phone-banking for Sanders.
Yeah, that's going to be accurate.
LiberalFighter
(51,227 posts)Didn't realize he was a kid.
TwilightZone
(25,505 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,374 posts)Fla Dem
(23,818 posts)It is not indicative of anything. California is not Washington State.
State of Washington
Race and ethnicity
According to the 2010 United States census, the racial and ethnic composition of Washington was the following:[42][52]
White: 77.3% (Non-Hispanic Whites 71%, White Hispanics 6.3%)
Black or African American: 3.6%
Native Americans: 1.5%
Asian: 7.2%
Pacific Islander: 0.4% (0.2% Samoan, 0.1% Guamanian, 0.1% Hawaiian)
Two or more races: 4.7%
Other races 5.1%
Bernie has not done well in multi-cultural states.
California
Population By Races
Race..........................Population.......% of Total
Total Population...........37,253,956...........100
White ...........................21,453,934.........57
Hispanic or Latino............14,013,719...........37
Some Other Race .............6,317,372...........16
Asian .............................4,861,007...........13
Black or African American..2,299,072.............6
ismnotwasm
(42,022 posts)Not a great showing at all.
Cha
(297,890 posts)deception.
sanders won't help his supporters learn the truth.. Hillary has to do it for him.
TwilightZone
(25,505 posts)the balloon is going to deflate rather rapidly. All of this unsupported Sanders hype about California is going to lead to a lot of crashing and burning if he loses, especially if he loses big.
TwilightZone
(25,505 posts)And get on with the real task at hand.
Arkansas Granny
(31,537 posts)That seems to be the standard MO.
TwilightZone
(25,505 posts)They have so many built-in excuses that they could get 99% of what they wanted and still think it's rigged.
NYC Liberal
(20,138 posts)I suspect it will dry up completely except for a few "Bern the convention" diehards giving a few dollars.
Look at his debate crap, which is a very obvious ploy for free airtime since he has no money to run ads.
GusBob
(7,286 posts)Eom
peggysue2
(10,847 posts)The St Bernard Brigade was willingly fooled into thinking things would turn their way or that Hillary was a nanosecond from prosecution (nice right-wing meme) or that the system was rigged against Sanders.
As the saying goes: it's far easier to fool people than it is to have those same people admit that they've been fooled. Human nature, I guess.
But as stated, the primary result has been scrawled on the wall since March. The only thing left is the weeping.
MSMITH33156
(879 posts)that way when they lose California, they'll know they lost the election.
Versus claiming fraud, etc. If their plan is to win California by a large enough margin to overturn the delegate lead, then hopefully when that doesn't come close to happening, they will concede they lost.
The biggest long-term threat is that group thinking that they are being cheated and the results are unfair. Not that they think they can win.
TwilightZone
(25,505 posts)They've convinced themselves that they're losing only because of a nationwide conspiracy, so losing CA will only be the latest link in that chain. They'll probably blame Barbara Boxer. Again.
DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)A while back one of thier threads said Sanders would gain 100 delegates from just three states Indiana, Kentucky and Oregon. I was tweaking them after Indiana 6 down 94 to go, but I stopped after that it just wasn't worth it. I Thought do not feed the......
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin
(108,363 posts)grossproffit
(5,591 posts)SharonClark
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