The State of the Race

[CajunBlazer]

There are a total of 4,051 pledged delegates and so far Hilary has won 1,683 and Sanders has won 1,362. So, as of now 3045 pledged delegates have been won leaving 1006 pledged delegates still available.

To reach 2,382 pledged delegates and cinch the nomination before the convention Hillary would have to capture 699 pledged delegates in the remaining contests or 69.5% - very difficult, but not impossible, On the other hand Sanders would have to win 1020 pledge delegates before the convention. Since only 1006 pledged delegates are still available, that is an impossibility.

On the other hand, realistically for Sanders to have any chance of flipping enough super delegates to win the nomination, he has to at least win the pledged delegate race. For either candidate to win the most pledged delegates he/she must win at least 2028 pledged delegates. For Sanders to accomplish that feat he needs to win 664 of the remaining pledged delegates or 66.0%. Hillary has to win only 345 or or 34.3%

So Sanders has to average winning 66% of the available pledged delegates in every remaining contest. After every contest that he fails achieve at least that goal, his required winning percentage for the remaining contests goes up.

At this point in the 2008 nomination contest Hillary was far less behind Barack Obama. She won the last 12 primaries and caucus and still could couldn't close the gap. It simply isn't going to happen folks.

There are 712 super delegates and 522 or 73% are already promised to to Hillary. And that number grows every day. Sanders presently claims 39 super delegates or 5.5%. All of those super delegates will vote on the first ballot. The chances that Sanders can convince half (356) the super delegates to join his side are extremely slim and none. We'll know well before the convention if Sanders can pull off that super delegate miracle.

Bottom line: It may technically be a "contested" convention, but the chances are astronomically high that it won't be "contested" past the first ballot when both the pledged delegates and the super delegates will vote together. At some point during the roll call of states during that first ballot, it will be all over for Bernie Sanders and his campaign.

I think we should start a pool on which state will put Hillary over the top.

[SunSeeker]

1. Some Sanders supporters have become blind to facts.

Ah, to have the certainty of a blind true believer. A feeling I will never know. Sadly, I have never been able to ignore reality.

[Cha]

2. As has their leader.. hard to blame them when they're being led like that.. except there

are those who have gotten out.

Dear Bernie: Thanks, but…I’m done

https://medium.com/Boo_Radley/dear-bernie-thanks-but-im-done-6c6bc6e23993#.yar36pkj7

[BlueMTexpat]

6. Great link, Cha!

Thanks for posting!

[BlueMTexpat]

7. And this - from

your link.

What is at once charming about Bernie is also what makes one nervous about his ability to effectively govern. I won’t print my age here, but let it suffice that I have witnessed decades of elections and the resulting governance from them, and anyone that has spent any time whatsoever observing politics, knows that effective politics is the art of compromise. This is especially true in our wonderful melting pot of cultures, ideals and opinions. In a nutshell, it’s pretty much what our country was founded on. If you wish to be a politician who represents and accomplishes the goals of the constituency that voted you into office, you need to accept and learn how to negotiate and unfortunately compromise. At his age, you’d assume Bernie knows this by now, and yet he comes to all political interactions with the completely unbending attitude of a teenager. As though all compromise in life is for the weak. As though other people in the world might have differing opinions from yours, but they must either be wrong, or “sell outs”. This is not the approach of a politician who gets things accomplished, and unfortunately it probably explains how Bernie has been in American politics for so long, and yet has authored and passed so little legislation. At this very moment we are witnessing a glaring example of a large group of politicians who have adopted this same attitude, this attitude of complete refusal to compromise, and ironically they are the people that Bernie rails against (when he’s not railing against Hillary) — The Republicans in The House and in The Senate. Over seven years, all they’ve accomplished is a historic record of obstructionism. I can’t even imagine how much more dysfunctional Washington could become with a President who might be just as intractable as the Congress they would have to work with. It’s alarming and yet in this light, not surprising that, out of all his fellow Democratic Senators, who have worked shoulder-to-shoulder with Bernie for so many years, only one has actually come out to endorse him in this election.

[Cha]

8. That's another perfect example from Boo Radley why bernie would be an incompetent potus..

He'd be like Congress..

And, it reminds me again why Obama is such an excellent President.

sanders is this guy..

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Emo+Progressive

Thank you so much for highlighting that, BlueMT

Forgot to add trueblue~http://www.democraticunderground.com/1107125054

[BlueMTexpat]

9. One can never have enough reminders

about why Prez O is such an excellent President.

[Cha]

11. True dat

[Koinos]

10. Great link, Cha!

Many people are feeling the same way.

[Cha]

12. Finally! thanks Koinos~

[pandr32]

23. Exactly!

They spin things to please and then put them forward as though they are facts, but really the whole campaign is in an alternate universe at this point. No shortage of ever-ready subjects, either, waiting for their dog whistles

[Cha]

3. That's right.. not going to happen..

"Sorry, Bernie, but you can’t “contest” the Democratic Convention. Those aren’t the rules"

First things first; Sanders seems to think that because Hillary Clinton will not have the “magic number” in pledged delegates alone, that this makes the July DNC “contested.” This shows an amazing lack of knowledge of the process. The correct term Sanders should be using is “brokered”, however terminology aside, it still will not apply to the convention. A convention becomes brokered only if a candidate fails to secure a majority of overall delegates after the first ballot, this includes ALL delegates including the super delegates. Sanders appears to be operating under the misguided idea that the first ballot is pledged delegates only and that therefore Secretary Clinton will not have the required majority. However, as the first ballot will include all delegates, Secretary Clinton will have a majority and there will be nothing to “contest” or broker.

And, one who would not be dealing in facts.

The contradiction between these two strategies by the Sanders campaign is disturbing and exposes a new level of hypocrisy. In his first argument, Sanders says that the super delegates should vote based on popular vote from their state, but in the second argument he is saying they should ignore the will of the people and vote for him because he is polling slightly better. He is, in effect saying he wants to steal the nomination not just from Secretary Clinton, but from the members of the democratic party who have given her a decisive victory.

Regardless of Sanders strategies, back-up plans and other machinations, there will not be a brokered convention and Senator Sanders will not be the nominee. He may spend the next two months pretending otherwise, but the democratic nomination process is over for everyone but Sanders and his most confused supporters.

sanders may or may not be "misguided".. either way he's trying to dupe the American People and we've already had too many Presidents like that.. No Thank you, BS.

Yo Mama~http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1107&pid=122726

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/sorry-bernie-but-you-cant-contest-the-democratic-convention-those-arent-the-rules/24652/

The truly disgusting part about Bernie's contested convention aspirations is how he thinks he's entitled to override the will of POC/women.
https://twitter.com/theonlyadult

Thank you for your analysis, Cajon!

[MarianJack]

4. Really, has Back Bench Bernie given...

...ANYBODY here any reason to believe that he's actually SMART? I don't think so!

The likelihood of me ever choosing to respect him again shrinks with each moment and every passing Sanders campaign cheap stunt!

PEACE!

[Cha]

5. Back bench bernie has so earned that title.. Rallied himself right on the

back bench.. nobody who cares about our country wants to hear one peep about him anymore.

Peace & Aloha to MJ!

[IamMab]

13. One round of voting = one short "contest." Go home, Bernie, you're drunk. nt

[Cha]

15. I'm just goin to drop this here..

Propane Jane ??@docrocktex26
You know it's bad when batshit Ted Cruz has sense enough to recognize when he can't win, but Bernie Sanders doesn't.
https://twitter.com/docrocktex26?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
2:17 AM - 4 May 2016
195 195 Retweets 263 263 likes

Oh, and this..

Ronald Brownstein ??@RonBrownstein
Though @SenSanders just told @jaketapper D nominee must win independents to win general election, @POTUS won despite losing them by 5 in '12

PrettyFootWoman
@RonBrownstein @SenSanders @jaketapper @POTUS Bernie continues to DISS the Obama Coalition but We Are Still Here & We will DEFEAT Trump!
4:54 AM - 4 May 2016
13 13 Retweets 11 11 likes

https://theobamadiary.com/2016/05/04/early-bird-chat-736/

Sounds to me like berny wants to extort his "independents".. I could be wrong.

[IamMab]

21. Sore Loser Sanders seems to forget that half of independents are still GOP in all but name. nt

[still_one]

14. The Super Delegates will go with the candidate with the most pledged delegates, and that will

be Hillary. Sanders will high tail it back to Vermont, and won't see his angry mug on the idiot tube

[Cha]

16. That would be llke a miracle.. I hope the m$m doesn't have him on all the time to whine about

Hillary like he did about President Obama on the thom hartmann show.

I just posted these tweets regarding how Dems are feeling about berny here..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1107&pid=125238

stillone~

[still_one]

17. you have point Cha

[livetohike]

18. He will probably leave the Senate and become the go

to political analyst on the fair and balanced Fox News. 24/7 Clinton bashing. Jane will become the tax advisor, maybe have her own show .

[Cha]

19. lol.. berny's already filed to run as Senator from Vermont as an Indy and he doesn't have to file

until 2018.. he knows he's lost. He just doesn't want his fans to know it.

And Mrs BS? Yeah, sounds like faux would love to have her on in some capacity to whine about Hillary. But, obviously she knows her taxes so maybe she could help them out there, too. Rofl

[Walk away]

20. One has to assume that Bernie is now rallying for Trump now!

He has apparently bought into his advisor Susan Sarandon's theory of Trump being better than Hillary.

My niece in school in DC says that Bernie's supporters in her dorm are waking up to Donald as the nominee for the GOP and not too happy with Bernie anymore.

[fleabiscuit]

22. Great update Cajun, 1st rate. n/t