Based on the most recent Indiana poll. (50-46)
Using proportional application of delegates at each level it would be HC: 45 - BS: 38.
--
Using proportional application on total delegates it would be HC: 43 - BS: 40.
The 50 - 46 poll equates to a 52% - 48% equivalence.
Hillary will get between 43 and 45 delegates out of 83.
Sanders will get between 38 and 40 delegates.
Including only Pledged Delegates [Majority is 2,026]:
Hillary -: [1,665 + 45] 1,710 - - Need: 316 -- Advantage: 302 Delegates
Sanders: [1,370 + 38] 1,408 - - Need: 618
Pledged Delegates remaining: 933
Including Automatic Delegates [Majority is 2,383]:
Hillary -: [PD 1,710 + AD 489] 2,199 - - Need: 184 -- Advantage: 750 Delegates
Sanders: [PD 1,408 + AD 41 ] 1,449 - - Need: 934
Total Delegates remaining: PD 933 + AD 183 = 1,116
Percent Needed:
-- Hillary -: 16.5%
-- Sanders: 83.7%
Using Convoluted Majority Method *
Percent of Pledged Delegates needed to reach the Convoluted Majority:
-- Hillary -: 72.1%
-- Sanders: 104.5%
Indiana has 9 congressional districts. There are two with 8 delegates, one with 7 delegate, three with 6 delegates, and three with 5 delegates.
Unless there is a 12.5% spread in the votes for districts with 8 delegates it is likely to split 4-4. CD1 is in the Lake County area (near Chicago) and CD7 is in Indianapolis. I think at least one of them will split in Hillary's favor. But instead of a 2 delegate advantage as it was in 2008 it will be a 3 delegate advantage.
The spread in the votes for districts with 6 delegates would need to be 16.6% otherwise the split would be 3-3. The districts are the 2nd, 8th, and 9th. The 8th and 9th would likely be the best for Sanders. But Clinton won the popular vote in all three of the districts in 2008 with the 8th and 9th by wide margins enough to get a two delegate advantage in both of them.
Districts with only 5 delegates will likely split 3-2. Clinton won CD4 and CD 6 in 2008 with Obama winning CD3. If Sanders has a chance of winning one it would be in the 3rd. Basing that only on Fort Wayne as a major city and with IPFW. But I don't think IPFW has the same draw as other universities for Sanders.
CD5 with 7 delegates has a chance of going Sanders with UAW members. But retirees could possibly pull it out for Clinton. Retirees outnumber actives by a considerable margin.
Obama won the following counties: Allen, Boone, Elkhart, Hamilton, Lake, Marion, Monroe, St Joseph, Tippecanoe. There are 92 counties in Indiana.
2008 Primary Recap
Clinton's advantage by districts were CD6 3-2, CD8 4-2, CD9 4-2.
Obama's advantage by districts were CD7 4-2.
The At Large delegates split 8-8 and the PLEO delegates split 5-4 for Clinton.
Total results were Clinton: 38 - Obama: 34
Popular votes were Clinton: 646,282 - Obama: 632,073
= new reply since forum marked as read
That's gotta bern! 
