Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumDemocrats 2016: Not Feeling the Bern Despite big crowds, Sanders remains a huge underdog to Clinton
HILLARY CLINTON ROOM
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/democrats-2016-not-feeling-the-bern/
I am going to just leave the link but it is ann interesting analysis.
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Any means.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)I don't need to attend a rally to know this. I enjoy seeing news about her speeches and where she is going, my support goes to Hillary.
MADem
(135,425 posts)They have no intention of voting for him--they thought it would be a fun experience, and they had a restaurant in mind as well.
I've gone to rallies of people I'd be unlikely to vote for, too.
If Trump was speaking nearby, I'd bring a camera and try for a good spot--doesn't mean I think he's anything but a massive ass, though.
That said, Bernie says some positive things. He will not get my primary vote, but I don't think he is a 'bad' guy and he does seem to care about the working stiffs. My major disconnect with him is that he has no ability--and hasn't indicated any clue--as to how he will persuade a Congress, where he worked as an independent, caucusing with the Democrats but NOT doing any of the gritty administrative legwork expected of most in the caucus--to do his bidding, should he become POTUS.
I just wonder how well he can "work a crowd" when that crowd consists of legislators with their own agendas. It's not like he's ever whipped votes, made trades, cut deals, or done any of the vote counting work in the Democratic caucus, because he's not one of them, he's never held a peer position in the House or Senate party structure--he only has sworn to vote with them on procedural matters, not on legislation. He's not part of the "Party Discipline" set (and they can muster that discipline if it means enough) in that regard.
I honestly don't think he has the political persuasive chops for that kind of effort--he'd need a wingman who knew the Hill really well (it's why Cheney made Bush pick him).
William769
(55,148 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)William769
(55,148 posts)ismnotwasm
(42,022 posts)Cha
(297,890 posts)murielm99
(30,779 posts)William769
(55,148 posts)Iliyah
(25,111 posts)"keeping Bill in check" LOL
Lisa D
(1,532 posts)but not Bernie's age?
Interesting. I don't think age should be an issue, but since he is actually older than Hillary, I'm baffled by the omission.
Overall, a good article and interesting analysis.
Go Hillary!
OKNancy
(41,832 posts)grrrrrrrrr
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)shenmue
(38,506 posts)Gothmog
(145,752 posts)yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)I would also suggest polls show most left-wing liberals still support Hillary. Hillary supporters are just more pragmatic and do not want to jeopardize a Democratic presidential victory in 2016, and don't support 'someone else' for the reasons outlined in the article.
Plus, there are a lot of idealisms involved in supporting Hillary, including a plainly historical vote!
Tarheel_Dem
(31,246 posts)I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Bernie is following the trail of Thom Hartmann & Ed Schultz's core audiences. I have a feeling that BS' popularity is directly tied to the markets where those two are most listened to.
yallerdawg
(16,104 posts)According to the most recent Census Bureau estimates, Vermont has the second-largest percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the country, behind only neighboring Maine. Notably, New Hampshire and Iowa rank fourth and sixth, respectively. Demographically, the Democratic electorates in the first two primary or caucus states just happen to look a lot like Sanders home state. It also doesnt hurt Sanders that New Hampshire is next door, reducing the costs of visiting the first-in-the-nation primary state.
Cha
(297,890 posts)According to the most recent Census Bureau estimates, Vermont has the second-largest percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the country, behind only neighboring Maine. Notably, New Hampshire and Iowa rank fourth and sixth, respectively. Demographically, the Democratic electorates in the first two primary or caucus states just happen to look a lot like Sanders home state. It also doesnt hurt Sanders that New Hampshire is next door, reducing the costs of visiting the first-in-the-nation primary state.
Meanwhile, Clinton has a lifetime of experience appealing to African American and Hispanic voters. Though blacks strayed to Barack Obama in 2008, both the African-American leadership and rank-and-file seem solidly back in the Clinton camp for 2016. The most recent national polls peg Clintons support among white Democrats in the low-to-mid 50s, while her support among blacks is in the 60s. Meanwhile, Sanders may be in double-digits nationally now, but hes not there with African Americans. While its true that Clinton did lead with blacks nationally this time eight years ago, her edge was smaller: One national Pew poll showed her up 47% to 34% with blacks over Obama in late July 2007. Thats a smaller lead than she has now, and obviously Obama always had great potential among black voters. Theres not much indication Sanders can be anywhere near as mighty a force in the black community.
Thank you.
George II
(67,782 posts)...a "surge" in New Hampshire that his home state shares a 200 mile border with NH and their demographics are almost identical, including a 95% white electorate (and Iowa isn't much different!). They have to be familiar with Sanders in NH if they've been paying attention.
Also, regarding Clinton's 2007/2008 lead with blacks nationally, she was up against a charismatic young black man from Chicago, not a white man from Burlington.
My feeling is that the New Hampshire primary (and Vermont, of course) is his best chance at a victory. If things go the way I think they will, the nomination should be wrapped up very early next year.
By the way, even in Florida (won't get into the obvious demographics there!) where Sanders should have a big following, he's still about 40% behind Clinton.
Cha
(297,890 posts)certain sections.. the whole Country.
Hillary has a long history of supporting minorities and has earned their overwhelming support now.
Right.. there's no Obama in the race now but he will be helping whomever the Dem nom is and I think it's going to be Hillary!
George II
(67,782 posts)That would be awesome, and probably worth a few million votes.
Cha
(297,890 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)I had seen several posts here suggesting the crowd size is not indicative of delegate votes...I learned something new. Perhpas some of the delegates will be swayed by crowd size, but it seems unlikley...especially since those crowds were not representative of a broader spectrum of voters, but more indicative of a narrow pro Bernie demographic.