Final day before election. Anybody got predictions?

[craigmatic]

I've been following polls and it looks like Labour is falling short by maybe 15 and Scotland has probably killed any chances of Ed winning outright. Thoughts?

[still_one]

1. No matter who wins, it will not be a stable government, and I suspect they will need to form a new

government six months later

[LeftishBrit]

2. My prediction is that we won't know for ages...

hung (and born-to-be-hung) parliament; lots of horse-trading; etc.

I hope it ends with a non-Tory government, but fingers are tightly crossed.

[Ironing Man]

3. same here...

its going to be a gangfuck - neither side has enough acceptable seats to form a stable government. i take the view that Labour will cobble together a rainbow 'movement' - not a coalition, or even a C&S agreement, but that it will fall apart when the first difficult decision hoves into view.

whether they'll go for a dissollution and another election, or just musical chairs forming a tory(ish) government from the same parliament is a grotty mix of how they think they're going to do in such an election, and whether they've got any money to fight it.

[craigmatic]

4. If the tories win the total vote count but labour can get more seats through a coalition, who gets

the government?

[Ironing Man]

5. Labour.

the rules are clear, the PM is the person who can shepherd/harrange a simple majority in the house for a queens speech, budget and and vote of no confidence. whether thats from one party or fifty it doesn't matter.

however, the rules aren't politics.

[doxyluv13]

6. Answer to: If the tories win the total vote count but labour can get more seats through a coalition,

The Prime Minister doesn't have to be from the largest party in the Commons, or even from the largest member of a coalition. S/he needs to command a majority of Parliament any old way.

However, since this kind of thing is rare in the UK (tho common in other Westminster-style governments) the Tory press is trying to say a Miliband Prime Minister-ship would be illegitimate if the Conservatives out-poll Labor by a large number of seats (10-15?) no matter how many total votes the coalition can command.

[Ghost Dog]

12. Only seats in Parliament count in a parliamentary system.

See here.

[mwooldri]

7. SNP will do well in Scotland but maybe not THAT well.

The Lib Dems may keep half their present seats. UKIP may gain 2 or 3, the Greens will keep Brighton Pavilion.

My hunch is a Lab Lib SNP confidence and supply arrangement. Also I expect some possible legislation to undo the fixed parliament terms act. This means that whatever government gets into office can decide to pull a snap election when they think they can win. As it stands right now, we may end up with a Labour minority government for the next 5 years.

[craigmatic]

10. Is that just a personal theory or do you have polls that show that?

[mwooldri]

18. just a personal feeling.

As for polls, since 1992 I have taken them with a big pinch of salt. Except for Lord Ashcroft's polls, constituency polling is rare. If Labour runs a decent get-out-the-vote campaign in Scotland, I feel they won't lose as many seats in Scotland as the polls suggest. The LibDems generally have good get-out-the-vote campaigns in seats they feel they have a chance in winning, so they may not lose as many seats that they have been predicted to lose. If the polls are right, then Nick Clegg will lose his seat. I don't think he will.... but his majority will be slashed.

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. I got email from 38 Degrees telling me Winchester was 'too close to call' - 48% Tory to 32% Lib Dems

(it's my constituency), which is a pretty loose definition of 'too close to call' if you ask me.

FWIW my own prediction of the margin between the 2 will be more like 10%, not 16%.

Nationally, I guess the poll predictions above are more likely than anything. My guess is that the Tories will have about 10 more seats than Labour, not enough for a majority even with Lib Dem and DUP support, so it will fall to Labour quickly to form a minority government, with SNP and SDLP votes to get it through an initial Queen's Speech (and maybe needing more - Plaid Cymru and maybe Lib Dem, but only if they are needed - in which case there will be more negotiation before that can happen). I think it'll last a couple of years, but might be rocky after that.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

9. Labour largest party, forms a minority government

I think Labour may win the highest number of seats with a slightly smaller share of the UK vote than the Conservatives.
I think Labour will hang on to 10 Scottish seats.
I don't think the Fixed Term Parliament Act will get the votes to be repealled.
I think Miliband will be PM for at least the full term.
I don't think there will be a straight-forward crowning of Boris Johnson as Tory leader, there's too much ambition and there's likely to be Tory-on-Tory bloodshed. A lot of red meat to the right is inevitable as the contenders fight for the leadership which would be a propaganda gift to Labour.
I don't think Clegg will survive as Lib Dem leader unless there is a second Tory-Lib Dem coalition.

[LeftishBrit]

14. I agree that there won't be a straightforward coronation of Boris

There are too many potential rivals. Also, as I've said before, I think that Boris can currently play for both sides: being on the left of his party as Mayor of London, where it's the only way to be elected, and on the right of his party when he is seeking to appeal to Tories dissatisfied with Cameron and the coalition. When he is seriously seeking the leadership, he will no longer be able to do this, and his popularity with one or both sides will fall. Also his 'bonking' reputation may not go down well with the blue-rinsed ladies of the Tory base. I have also heard that he is lazy and often gets others to do his job for him; but similar qualities never prevented Cameron from being leader!

I agree that Clegg probably won't survive as leader, especially if there are massive losses of LibDem seats. I think a Tory/LD coalition would be hard to achieve, as it would probably require additional collaboration with the DUP, and I don't think that they and the LDs could work together, even if Clegg (the human jellyfish) remains as leader of the latter.

[Ghost Dog]

11. One outcome will eventually (soon) be an independent Scotland.

If another outcome is not proportional representation and genuine multi-party electoral and parliamentary politics then the so-called rump-UK will crash and burn.

[T_i_B]

16. We've already had a referendum on electoral reform in 2011

And it was rejected by a large margin.

All the same, I do expect the issue to be revived, although IMHO it's actually not the real problem. The real problem is the decline of the 3 main parties, which will remain a problem even if we do change the electoral system.

[Ghost Dog]

21. Well, perhaps I should say a 'high degree of independence' for Scotland

will arrive. And yes, multi-party politics will be problematic, particularly where 'extremists' of whatever hue are thus represented... But that would be more 'democratic' than the present set up.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

19. I don't expect to see an independent Scotland in next 10 years

Only a minority of Scots (the most ardent of the 'Yes' supporters) want the issue re-opened and if the SNP re-opens that wound too soon it could backfire.

Also I do not necessarily believe that Westminster cannot cope with Hung Parliaments. Between 1860s and the 1930s there were large periods in which Westminster was NOC with deals needing to be struck with third or fourth parties such as the Liberal unionists, Irish nationalists, Labour (when it was a smaller third party), the Liberals (when it became a third party), the Liberal Nationals, National Labour and so on.

[T_i_B]

20. Trouble is...

In the past few decades Britain has been used to governments with overall majorities. Often huge majorities such as those enjoyed by Thatcher and Blair.

And after the last election we ended up with a government that was little different from one with an overall majority thanks to the coalition deal.

It's clear that the political strategies of the Blair era, of "triangulation" and top-down control are increasingly ineffective and if anything are contributing to the decline of the mainstream parties.

[forest444]

13. Labour, by a somewhat wider margin than expected.

Wishful thinking aside, it's just a hunch.

Happy Election Day, Great Britain - home of the wittiest MPs in the world!

[Ironing Man]

15. musings...

one of the interesting things to come out in the wash will be how the 'nationalies' question plays out. Nicola Sturgeon was on R4 yesterday morning talking about legitimacy in government, saying that a Tory-lead government would be illegitimate in Scotland given that they have (had?) only one seat in Scotland, the LD's won't have many, UKIP none etc.. its a principle that has legs, but the reverse - which of course she didn't go near - is also an issue. its probable that a Labour-lead coalition/C&S block of Lab/SNP/PC/Green and even LD's would have fewer seats in England than the Tories - if a government with a marked lack of Scottish representation is illegitimate, is not the same true of a government with a marked lack of English representation?

personally i think there will be another independance referendum in Scotland by 2022, i simply don't see how the SNP can not ask for another such referendum after both their success in this Westminster election and the 2016(?) Holyrood elections - the difference however will be that i doubt that there will be any of rump UK backing for the 'No' side, the impression i get is that a large swaithe of both English voters and Westminster politicians would now be happy to to see them go.

we shall see...

[muriel_volestrangler]

17. Labour would have plenty of representation in England, just not in the non-London south

In London, they are at 46%, compared with the Tory 33%. And they dominate the north of England, and are competitive in the Midlands. It's roughly the 3 regions of South West, South East, and East of England where they are in the same kind of situation as the Tories and Lib Dems in Scotland, in terms of votes; but they still manage a few seats in cities.

Moves on independence will depend on the fate of the euro, I think. The currency question was at the heart of the eventual 'no' vote, I think - uncertainty on an economic fundamental. With Greece still quite possibly leaving the Euro very messily, whether anyone would want to join it is questionable. Or be in a currency union with one country 10 times the size that will want the corresponding control over the currency.