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Who's your MP? (Original Post) T_i_B Apr 2015 OP
Nicola Blackwood (useless Tory twit) LeftishBrit Apr 2015 #1
The good news is that it's a tiny Tory majority T_i_B Apr 2015 #4
Not a huge chance, but some chance LeftishBrit Apr 2015 #5
Same thing with Tory posters here. T_i_B Apr 2015 #6
Ian Lavery non sociopath skin Apr 2015 #2
Steve Brine - bland Tory in his 40s muriel_volestrangler Apr 2015 #3
Tracey Crouch (CON) Anarcho-Socialist Apr 2015 #7
Went to a local debate last night T_i_B May 2015 #8
I would always be suspicious of an applicant for any job... LeftishBrit May 2015 #9
As I think I've mentioned before on this thread T_i_B May 2015 #10
Election day kick T_i_B May 2015 #11
Nicola Blockhead, who un-represents me, increased her majority (ugh) LeftishBrit May 2015 #12
Engel scraped in with a reduced majority T_i_B May 2015 #13
2017 General election kick T_i_B May 2017 #14
Brendan O'Hara Denzil_DC May 2017 #15
It panned out much as I expected/as well as I could have hoped. Denzil_DC Jun 2017 #21
Still Nicola Blackwood -Oxford West and Abingdon LeftishBrit May 2017 #16
Jeremy Corbyn RogueTrooper May 2017 #17
Judging by the pony-ness of the LibDem campaign thus far RogueTrooper May 2017 #18
Still, could be worse than Lib Dems..... T_i_B May 2017 #19
I now have a Conservative MP - Lee Rowley T_i_B Jun 2017 #20
More on my new MP T_i_B Jun 2017 #25
Ugh. Sounds awful. LeftishBrit Jun 2017 #26
Just had my first correspondance with him T_i_B Jun 2017 #27
I should add at this point... T_i_B Oct 2019 #35
Nicola Blackwood lost! LeftishBrit Jun 2017 #22
Congratulations!!!!! T_i_B Jun 2017 #23
As of today The King of Prussia Jun 2017 #24
An update on my former Labour MP T_i_B Dec 2017 #28
Another update..... T_i_B Oct 2018 #29
John Grogan The King of Prussia Oct 2018 #30
I lived in the Arfon constituency for a time. geardaddy Oct 2018 #31
Update on my ex-MP LeftishBrit Dec 2018 #32
Anne Milton (Guildford). mwooldri Jan 2019 #33
2019 General election kick T_i_B Oct 2019 #34
Still Steve Brine, as a carefully worded card through the letterbox this morning reminded me muriel_volestrangler Oct 2019 #36
Emma Dent Coad, Labour (Kensington) Celerity Oct 2019 #37
Still Layla Moran; hope that continues after Dec. 12th LeftishBrit Nov 2019 #38

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
4. The good news is that it's a tiny Tory majority
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 12:15 PM
Apr 2015

Last edited Wed Apr 22, 2015, 03:19 PM - Edit history (1)

But do the Lib Dems stand much chance of taking the seat back? Especially given what's happened in the past 5 years.

The Tory candidate for North East Derbyshire where I am is forever banging on about how he's a "local boy". The only trouble with this is that until recently he was the Tory councillor for Maida Vale on Westminster Council. Westminster Council Tories are as much of an automatic no-no for me as Sheffield or Rotherham Labour. And by all accounts his record on Westminster Council wasn't very good either.

The Tories have been making more effort then usual this time around. But all the same, I really don't want them to win this seat as it's clear that their candidate Lee Rowley would be a terrible MP.

LeftishBrit

(41,190 posts)
5. Not a huge chance, but some chance
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 01:06 PM
Apr 2015

The LibDem candidate is in the local tradition of being on the left of the party; and there has been some reversal of the boundary changes that contributed to Blackwood's victory last time. But as you say the LDs have gone pretty much down the drain everywhere.

One thing that's rather noticeable is that the Labour and LibDem election posters here emphasize the party in large letters and the candidate's name in somewhat smaller letters, and have no pics, but the Tory posters (of which I'm glad to say I haven't seen many, but I live in the city of Oxford where there is much less Tory support than in the surrounding areas) include a big picture of Blackwood looking pretty, as though she is trying to make herself a celebrity on a personal level. Incidentally, all three main-party candidates are women.

There are also smaller parties in the mix: the Greens; UKIP; the Socialist Party of Great Britain; and interestingly a single-issue pro-NHS party.

'Westminster Council Tories are as much of an automatic no-no for me'

And you would be right there! Apart from the fact that pretty much ANY Tories are an automatic no-no, Westminster Council are exceptionally disgusting. While I never actually lived in Westminster, I lived not far away when Shirley Porter was Chair, and I don't think my digestion has quite recovered in nearly 30 years! Ugh! And from what I hear, they haven't improved as much as they might.

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
6. Same thing with Tory posters here.
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 01:19 PM
Apr 2015

Last edited Sat Apr 25, 2015, 05:51 AM - Edit history (1)

Only seen a couple, but they do indeed have a picture of Lee Rowley's ugly mug on there.

I haven't come across any Labour posters where I live, but there are loads in Sheffield. Some emphasise the candidates name, some the Labour name. Also quite a few Green Party posters and a small number of Lib Dem posters in Sheffield.

I have to admit that I like the look of the NHA party, but they are not standing here. We have UKIP, Greens and an independent candidate though. The independent candidate seems nice enough but is standing on a very vague platform indeed.

non sociopath skin

(4,972 posts)
2. Ian Lavery
Wed Apr 22, 2015, 08:36 AM
Apr 2015

Know him well as we were on the local Council together.

Left-wing (Socialist Campaign Group), ex-NUM leader. Hard-working local MP. Generally a good lad, despite his touching loyalty to fossil fuels.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Lavery

The Skin

Anarcho-Socialist

(9,601 posts)
7. Tracey Crouch (CON)
Fri Apr 24, 2015, 10:03 AM
Apr 2015

Considered a moderate in the Tories given that she's pro-gay marriage. She has a 6,000 majority will likely hold on given that (a) she's reasonably well-liked and (b) Labour fielded a Progress candidate that lacks much political depth.

There is an outside chance that Chatham & Aylesford will go Labour, but it would need the kind of swing that would put Ed Miliband near to absolute majority territory nationally.

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
8. Went to a local debate last night
Fri May 1, 2015, 07:17 AM
May 2015

My thoughts on the candidates are as follows

The Tory candidate was poor. He just kept saying that we shouldn't vote for him if we want government to solve everything in answer to anything. I appreciate that it's difficult standing for the incumbent government party but all the same, the Tory candidate in 2010 was a lot better.

The UKIP candidate stood in 2010 and came across as a total fruitloop who was rather too reliant on quoting the UKIP manifesto verbatim. This time around he wasn't reliant on simply reading out the manifesto, and came across better for it. But all the same UKIP's platform is for too reliant on immigrant bashing with little else besides.

I had my suspicions that the Liberal Democrat was little more then a paper candidate and he proved this by not showing up. In his place was the Liberal Democrats East Midlands president, who said nothing of any real note during the debate.

The Green Party candidate was actually quite impressive. If he was a member of another party and didn't have a ponytail you could see him going places. But I personally still have issues about much of their platform.

There was an Independent candidate, and he was quite left wing. So much so that somebody from TUSC was attempting to woo him over to them after the hustings. He did talk some sense but I felt that there was also a certain element of what he said that wasn't always realistic.

And the Labour MP Natascha Engel also performed better then she did at the election hustings in 2010, but she still has a tendency to waffle, and my experience is that what she says she'll do at election time is not the same as what she actually does once elected.

So on the whole a much better hustings meeting then the one I attended at the last election. More relaxed, without candidates reading verbatim from their manifestos. I'm still not decided as to who I'll vote for though.

LeftishBrit

(41,190 posts)
9. I would always be suspicious of an applicant for any job...
Fri May 1, 2015, 07:28 AM
May 2015

who basically says that his aim is to do as little as possible, and to reduce the activity of the organization that he wants to join.

If the Tory candidate's main point is that people 'shouldn't vote for him if we want government to solve everything in answer to anything', then why is he standing? No one expects government to solve EVERYTHING; but if his main point is that he doesn't want/expect government to solve things, then why is he trying to be an MP?


'The UKIP candidate stood in 2010 and came across as a total fruitloop who was rather too reliant on quoting the UKIP manifesto verbatim.'


Well, at least that means that he knew what was in it, unlike his party leader!

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
10. As I think I've mentioned before on this thread
Fri May 1, 2015, 07:38 AM
May 2015

I think that the Tory candidate for North East Derbyshire is a total phoney who would be a very poor MP.

But all the same, the contrast between him and the Tory candidate from last time (who is now standing for a safe Tory seat in Sussex) is quite startling.

LeftishBrit

(41,190 posts)
12. Nicola Blockhead, who un-represents me, increased her majority (ugh)
Fri May 8, 2015, 04:04 AM
May 2015

Not surprising, given the total LibDem collapse everywhere (Labour never had a chance in Oxford West and Abingdon), but nevertheless, ugh.

At least, Andrew Smith (Labour) increased his majority next door in Oxford East: a seat held by a Tory in the mid-80s, and now totally safe Labour, so that is good news.



T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
13. Engel scraped in with a reduced majority
Fri May 8, 2015, 04:21 AM
May 2015

Last edited Fri May 8, 2015, 11:41 AM - Edit history (2)

North East Derbyshire may have been Labour since 1935, but I do think that this constituency will go Conservative at some point. It's gentrifying and turning away from it's mining past into a commuter constituency.

Tories did clearly outspend Labour here, and Labour went backwards in many of the key marginals like Amber Valley that they lost in 2010.

Elsewhere Clegg hung on in Sheffield Hallam, and the seats locally where Labour faced a strong challenge from the Lib Dems are now rock solid Labour with the Lib Dems in 3rd or 4th.

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
14. 2017 General election kick
Sun May 7, 2017, 05:25 AM
May 2017

Last edited Sun May 7, 2017, 04:17 PM - Edit history (2)

As the sitting MP, Natascha Engel is still the Labour candidate. She has since been elected deputy speaker of the house of commons. Apparently she is not popular with the local branch of Momentum, although as deputy speaker she can't be the sort of partisan warrior they would want her to be. And quite frankly she was never really a fire breathing partisan in the first place. Indeed her role as deputy speaker is one that seems a good fit for her.

Her Tory challenger is still ex Maida Vale councillor Lee Rowley, who is still a total phoney and a charlatan. Sadly, with Labour in it's current state, and with the Tories flinging resources at this constituency it's very difficult to see him losing. They only need a small swing from Labour, and they should get that just from the small town where I live.

Is there much change where you live?

Denzil_DC

(7,187 posts)
15. Brendan O'Hara
Sun May 7, 2017, 07:33 AM
May 2017
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_O%27Hara

He came from nowhere (in historical party standing terms in this constituency) to win the seat with an 8,000-plus majority (44.3%) at the last election from three-term (and OK at a constituency level, but pretty useless in Parliament) Lib Dem Alan Reid (27.9%), who'd taken over the seat from another three-term Lib Dem in 2001.

O'Hara's been fine as far as I'm concerned. It's a tough call for any MP in this constituency, getting round a large, disparate and in parts rather remote area while maintaining a presence at Westminster.

The Tories were a distant third at the 2015 election, with 7,733 votes (14.9%) to Labour's fourth-placed 5,394 (10.4%).

The other parties have been slow to declare candidates, only Labour's Michael Kelly (who I've never seen or heard of before) standing against him so far.

His previous Lib Dem opponent Reid took the loss hard and has been fishing around for a political role at various levels since, and might have been in the running to contest his old seat, but he finally won an Argyll & Bute council seat in last week's election.

His previous Tory opponent, Alastair Redman (another who's been a regular contender for various roles in the area over the years), also won a seat in last week's election.

O'Hara's prospects depend on turnout, who decides to stand against him and who tactical voters decide has the best chance of defeating him.

In 2015, UKIP only got 1,311 votes (2.5%), so there's not much slack to gain from them for his future Tory opponent. The Lib Dems have historical strength in the constituency, but this seemed to evaporate at the last election, and there's been no sign of a resurgence at Scottish national level. They might be more likely Tory switchers, and possibly vice versa, but note that the Tories' total 2015 vote was less than O'Hara's majority over the Lib Dems with their sitting MP. It remains to be seen whether Labour voters would be willing to switch to Tory or Lib Dem in an effort to unseat him.

Denzil_DC

(7,187 posts)
21. It panned out much as I expected/as well as I could have hoped.
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 01:23 AM
Jun 2017

O'Hara was re-elected, but the Tories gained a lot of vote share to run second, at the expense of the Lib Dems who were a distant third. Labour came a slightly more distant but not disgraceful fourth - which is remarkable since their candidate didn't start campaigning at all till the last couple of weeks of the election due to prior commitments and had a habit of taking the huff in hustings and stomping out when challenged, on one occasion calling a would-be constituent a "fat bastard".

Ironically, the Corbyn effect might have helped the SNP in this constituency - Labour's vote held up, rather than defecting en masse to vote tactically (what sort of unreasoning hatred would make a Labour supporter envisage voting Tory, I can't imagine, but it looks like it happened elsewhere).

LeftishBrit

(41,190 posts)
16. Still Nicola Blackwood -Oxford West and Abingdon
Sun May 7, 2017, 03:09 PM
May 2017

Last edited Mon May 8, 2017, 03:36 AM - Edit history (1)

Maybe she'll be out this time!

Very unusually, the Greens have pulled out and basically endorsed the LibDem candidate, who is the one person who could conceivably defeat Blockhead.

In Oxford East, Andrew Smith, the long-serving Labour MP, has retired, and Anneliese Dodds is seeking the seat.

RogueTrooper

(4,665 posts)
17. Jeremy Corbyn
Tue May 9, 2017, 11:11 AM
May 2017

Islington North is an extremely safe Labour seat.

Islington North Constituency

In the Brexit Referendum Islington went pretty heavily for Remain.

Islington Remain Vote

I would be very surprised if he looses his seat but his majority might drop because of Brexit. My guess is Keith Angus will make a slightly bigger tilt for the seat than your usual sacrificial lamb.

RogueTrooper

(4,665 posts)
18. Judging by the pony-ness of the LibDem campaign thus far
Thu May 18, 2017, 06:32 AM
May 2017

They are probably not going to make much of an electoral impact in North London.

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
19. Still, could be worse than Lib Dems.....
Thu May 18, 2017, 07:25 AM
May 2017

My Labour MP has written a 4 page statement in favour of fracking locally and sent it to everyone in my postcode. This arrived through my letterbox inside a free glossy mag. It was the main topic of conversation at the pub quiz I attend, with people who are pro and anti-fracking being equally perplexed by the decision of the local MP to do this in the middle of a general election

https://nataschaengel.com/fracking/

This is of course in direct contradiction of Labour policy. In an area with considerable opposition to fracking, in a marginal seat and with the Tories clearly divided on the issue between local opposition and the national parties strong support for fracking.

And we have yet to see a proper general election leaflet from Labour!

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
20. I now have a Conservative MP - Lee Rowley
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 12:06 AM
Jun 2017

Not good at all. As per the above posts I don't have a high opinion of the guy and he has made quite a few promises on local issues that he will find difficult to keep.

However, the outgoing Labour MP Natascha Engel fought a dreadful campaign. If the Tory campaign hadn't been so focused on Theresa May and if the local Tories had been given more responsibility then they might have won by more.

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
25. More on my new MP
Sat Jun 17, 2017, 05:28 AM
Jun 2017

Turns out that he left a trail of anger behind him from his time at Westminster council with his fondness for parking charges but was clearly very keen on climbing the greasy pole.

Lots of videos of him on YouTube, not showing him in a good light....








http://www.standard.co.uk/news/parking-sends-very-sensible-people-mad-but-not-everyone-hates-the-new-evening-fees-6366744.html

Does he retain ambitions to become an MP? He answers like a Cabinet minister asked about becoming Prime Minister: "It's not something that is on my mind at the moment."

He stood in Bolsover, against Labour backbencher Dennis Skinner. Mr Rowley told voters that both his grandfathers had worked in collieries and he was the first in his family to go to university. Mr Skinner told the Standard: "Like most of the Tories that I have had in 10 or 11 campaigns, he was here today, gone tomorrow. I only saw him at the count." He added: "There are no pits since the Tories shut them all - Lee Rowley's friends."

What is strange for one so guarded -Mr Rowley even declared a glass of water on the council's gifts register - is that he allows public access to his Facebook page. There are pictures of holidays in France, Rwanda and Australia, where the self-confessed "space cadet" posed alongside a sign for Maida Vale, the same name as his council ward. Elsewhere, he insists his hair is not ginger but "light brown".

Before being put in charge of parking, Mr Rowley was on a working group for Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith, seeking ways to cut the cost of social breakdown. He has argued that council housing shouldn't be for life, saying it was "the equivalent of still claiming child benefit on the day you qualify for Saga discounts, simply because you, too, were young once". As for parking, he claims Westminster is merely trying to address the "paradigm shift" in Sunday shopping habits, and he welcomes the Mayor's decision to monitor his policy, saying: "Let the sun shine in."

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
27. Just had my first correspondance with him
Thu Jun 29, 2017, 12:26 PM
Jun 2017

I got "volunteered" to write to him on behalf of a local voluntary organisation and wrote him a very nice letter setting out the current political aims of the organisation.

The good news is that he replies to correspondence quickly and positively, which is a huge improvement on his predecessor.

The bad news is that his letter shows a glaring lack of attention to detail. And that could possibly turn out to be problematic down the line.

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
35. I should add at this point...
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 06:00 AM
Oct 2019

….that I fully expect Lee Rowley to retain North East Derbyshire. The Tories there are in a much stronger state than Labour, and I don't think much to their candidate for North East Derbyshire, who seems to think that people there haven't moved on from the coal mining era.

LeftishBrit

(41,190 posts)
22. Nicola Blackwood lost!
Fri Jun 9, 2017, 03:49 AM
Jun 2017

We now have Layla Moran! LibDem not Labour admittedly; but on the left of her party in the local tradition; and (very unusually) the Greens and National Health Action Party did not put up candidates, and campaigned for her.

Next door in East Oxford, Anneliese Dodds was comfortably elected as Labour MP, replacing Andrew Smith who had retired after 30 years.

Too bad that the BNP, I mean nominally Conservative, MP Philip Davies just held Shipley - it really looked for a while as though he was losing.

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
28. An update on my former Labour MP
Sat Dec 2, 2017, 06:34 AM
Dec 2017

Natascha Engel, having lost her seat to the Tories thanks in no small part to her bizarre decision to send a 4 page screed in favour of fracking to everyone in my postcode area is now working with INEOS, the firm who are looking to start fracking in my local area! I really hope that she isn't looking to run again as the Labour candidate round here.

https://www.derbyshiretimes.co.uk/news/fracking-firm-links-up-with-former-derbyshire-mp-to-provide-information-booklet-1-8888573

The company which wants to carry out fracking in north east Derbyshire has commissioned the former MP for the area, Natascha Engel, to write an 'information booklet' on shale gas exploration.

Chemical firm Ineos, which has applied to drill for shale gas in Marsh Lane, near Eckington, has said the booklet will be made available to the local community and will 'explain shale exploration and development'.

It will also explain more about 'combating climate change, energy needs, and the positive impact on jobs, training, industry and community benefits,' Ineos said.

Former MP for North East Derbyshire Natascha Engel said: “I saw first-hand what the impacts are on small communities when they hear about a shale gas application near them – even when it’s only for exploratory drilling. What people want is information. They want to know how it will affect them and they want reassurance that it is safe. I hope that this booklet will provide some of those certainties.”

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
29. Another update.....
Sat Oct 6, 2018, 05:28 AM
Oct 2018

Natascha Engel has been appointed as the UK government's Commissioner for Shale Gas

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/natascha-engel-appointed-as-commissioner-for-shale-gas

I'm not in any way optimistic about Engel being independent or neutral and worry that she will simply be a cheerleader for fracking, and campaigners may easily dismiss her as such.

geardaddy

(24,924 posts)
31. I lived in the Arfon constituency for a time.
Fri Oct 26, 2018, 02:51 PM
Oct 2018

but I'm not a UK citizen. But the MP there is Hywel Williams (PC). He's OK as far as I know.

LeftishBrit

(41,190 posts)
32. Update on my ex-MP
Mon Dec 31, 2018, 08:05 AM
Dec 2018

Nicola Blackwood, the Tory who lost the seat (Oxford West and Abingdon) to Layla Moran in 2017, has just been given a peerage. Not quite sure what for, but oh well.

mwooldri

(10,291 posts)
33. Anne Milton (Guildford).
Wed Jan 9, 2019, 01:28 AM
Jan 2019

Well... She still represents my family. I've been out of UK too long to vote and not a US citizen so can't vote here either.

Except for a short time, Guildford was a constituency where you could stick a blue rosette on a monkey and the monkey would win. Sadly the constituencies all around Guildford are the same way. Tory country

T_i_B

(14,734 posts)
34. 2019 General election kick
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 05:57 AM
Oct 2019

Since the last general election I have moved to Penistone and Stocksbridge (it's pronounced Pen-is-tun, so stop sniggering at the back!). It's a Labour / Tory marginal seat consisting of Sheffield's northernmost suburbs and the areas to the west of Barnsley. Held since it's creation by Angela Smith. Formerly a staunch Blairite, then Change UK, now a Liberal Democrat

http://angelasmithmp.co.uk/old/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Smith_(South_Yorkshire_politician)

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11814/angela_smith/penistone_and_stocksbridge
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11814/angela_smith/penistone_and_stocksbridge/votes

At this election she is moving on to contest Altringham and Sale against an ERG group Tory. So I will be having a new MP come what may. I doubt Francyne Johnson of Labour (via Momentum) will retain the seat if I'm honest. A lot will depend on how the Tory / Brexit pity party vote splits though.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,146 posts)
36. Still Steve Brine, as a carefully worded card through the letterbox this morning reminded me
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 07:59 AM
Oct 2019

Having been in the 21 kicked out of the Tories for voting to block No Deal, and then being in the 10 readmitted yesterday, he'd had a card printed, telling us what a conscientious local MP he'd been, blah, blah, blah, without mentioning the words "Conservative" or "independent" once. So now I know he must be standing; I presume the local party will take him back with no problems.

LeftishBrit

(41,190 posts)
38. Still Layla Moran; hope that continues after Dec. 12th
Fri Nov 1, 2019, 06:40 AM
Nov 2019

Neighbouring constituencies's MPs include Labour MP Anneliese Dodds, who replaced Andrew Smith in Oxford East; and Robert Courts (or as I call him, Robert Courts-Disaster), the arch-Brexiteer Tory who replaced Cameron in Witney. Can't see either of them losing.

One good thing about our having such frequent elections lately is that it hasn't given the Tories time to put their gerrymandering plans into effect. They would like to change the constituency boundaries in a way that would probably ensure Layla Moran's defeat by a Tory, and have only one non-Tory seat out of the six constituencies in Oxfordshire. If that happens, I would probably be OK-ish personally, as I'd probably be one of those moved into Anneliese Dodds' constituency, rather than getting the Tory; but I still would prefer it not to happen!

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