Rochester by-election: The key Welsh seats Ukip plans to target next after second by-election triump

[geardaddy]

Welsh MEP Nathan Gill argues the Ukip's appeal is not limited to 'angry, white 40-year-old men'
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/rochester-by-election-key-welsh-seats-8146540

Snip
Speaking ahead of the results being announced, Welsh MEP said the party would adopt pavement politics as it seeks to turn its strong performance in Welsh European elections into a Westminster breakthrough.

Nigel Farage’s party hopes to do well in the Labour-held Alyn & Deeside and Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, where it will open a base, next year.

Describing the lessons the party will take from Rochester and Strood to Wales, Mr Gill said: “Obviously, immigration and the EU and those kind of things have also been a factor but it’s more of a local-based campaign and that is something, going into the general election, that we will be focusing on, especially in our target-seat areas.

"It will be the local issues, letting people know we have local candidates, that they are from the area, that they understand the area and that they will fight for the local area on a Westminster basis.”

More at link.

Oh god.

[LeftishBrit]

1. I doubt that they'd do too well in Wales

It's a very English party.

[geardaddy]

2. One of the MEPs is an incomer to Anglesey

Having taken over from the original UKIP MEP. There are quite a few English incomers to Wales who have no respect for the locals.

There are however many English incomers that try to learn Welsh and settle into the culture more by sending their kids to Welsh-medium schools.

[T_i_B]

3. "English incomers to Wales who have no respect for the locals"

I'm sure there has always been plenty of those since the days of Edward I, just as English visitors to certain parts of Wales are known to return with plenty of stories about the locals being rather rude and unwelcoming.

UKIP are hardly likely to make any attempt to appreciate any part of Welsh culture other then maybe to profess to liking Rugby Union. The question is, are people going to find UKIP's agenda appealing? Can't say myself as I don't know Wales well enough.

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. ICM Welsh poll, 19th-22nd Sept:

BBC Wales had a new ICM poll of Wales out this morning, conducted in the aftermath of the Scottish referendum. Westminister voting intentions in Wales, with changes from the previous ICM Welsh poll in February, are CON 23%(-1), LAB 38%(-4), LDEM 7%(-2), Plaid 13%(-1), UKIP 14%(+7). This puts UKIP up into third place in Wales, though on a uniform swing wouldn’t give them any seat (on his blog Roger Scully projects these figures would produce 28 Labour MPs (up 2), 8 Conservatives (unchanged), 1 Lib Dem (down 2) and 3 Plaid Cymru (no change)). Asked about Wales’s constitutional future just 3% would support Welsh independence, 49% would support extra powers for the Welsh Assembly, 26% support the status quo, 12% would like the Assembly abolished.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9011

14% looks like just about enough support that a few constituencies could be realistic targets, if they know the area well; but I wonder if they could do it without that long-term local knowledge, which Plaid has, and the Lib Dems can manage sometimes., but I suspect UKIP wouldn't have in Wales.

In the European elections, they got 27.55% - nearly as much as Labour. That's more than the 26.6% they got for the UK as a whole (though I think the UKIP percentage in England was probably higher - Scotland and NI vote shares will bring the UK figure down). But that shows that UKIP support is potentially almost as big in Wales as England.