Hard Border likely according to leak of UK government documents

[bronxiteforever]

RTÉ
August 17, 2019

(This is just a news summary. No further information in the article is available)

In the UK, the Sunday Times has published what it describes as official government documents, which show that if Britain leaves the European Union without a transition deal, a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be likely, as current plans to avoid widespread checks will prove unsustainable.

In what it says is an unprecedented leak of government documents, they show Britain will face shortages of fuel, food and medicine.

They also say that up to 85% of lorries using the main channel crossings "may not be ready" for French customs, meaning disruption at ports would potentially last up to three months before the flow of traffic improves. 

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0818/1069415-hard-border-likely-according-to-uk-gov-documents/

[msongs]

1. too bad the queen cannot veto brexit and restore sanity to her realm nt

[abqtommy]

2. I read one report that Her Majesty The Queen does have some options

in dealing with the Brexit mess. She can fire the present prime minister and appoint another. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. Besides that, not all Brits are so ignorant that they think they can leave the EU without the penalty of a hard border. When thinking about all the other ramifications
involved, I can't help wondering how people can be so blindly stupid? Oops, I could be talking about a large part of the US population too.

[Denzil_DC]

6. The UK parliament is sovereign.

The queen won't "fire" a prime minister on her own initiative. She responds to the situation in parliament, where the leader who can garner the most support among MPs (most often but not always the largest party) presents him or herself to the queen to be appointed.

She has a constitutional role in appointing a prime minister (it's unthinkable that she would veto a contender who commanded the support of the majority of MPs), but there are arguments among constitutional scholars about whether she has the power to dismiss Johnson if, for instance, a vote of no confidence went against him in parliament but he decided not to resign. It's a situation she and her entourage would strongly resist her being put in.

[abqtommy]

7. Thanks for the clarification.

[Wellstone ruled]

3. Oh Boy,

the Stock Markets are going to be crazy tomorrow night with this story hanging out there. But,Putin will be bigly happy.

[Myrddin]

4. A small price to pay...

...for the benefit of our million/billionaire classes' obscene wealth remaining outside of new EU scrutiny laws.

Which, is the primary motivation for brexit. Definitely not sarcasm!

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Link to The Times article with the document in it

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-deal-brexit-planning-assumptions-the-leaked-operation-yellowhammer-document-797qxkrcm

if you have a subscription, or a "2 free per week" registration.

On the Irish border, it says, of the "no new checks with limited exceptions" model that the govt proposes:

The model is likely to prove unsustainable because of economic, legal and biosecurity risks. With the UK becoming a “third [non-EU] country”, the automatic application of EU tariffs and regulatory requirements for goods entering Ireland will severely disrupt trade. The expectation is that some businesses will stop trading or relocate to avoid either paying tariffs that will make them uncompetitive or trading illegally; others will continue to trade but will experience higher costs that may be passed on to consumers. The agri-food sector will be hardest hit, given its reliance on complicated cross-border supply chains and the high tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.

Disruption to key sectors and job losses are likely to result in protests and direct action with road blockades. Price and other differentials are likely to lead to the growth of the illegitimate economy. This will be particularly severe in border communities where criminal and dissident groups already operate with greater freedom. Given the tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, there will be pressure to agree new arrangements to supersede the Day 1 model within days or weeks.

And, in general:

Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease. Critical elements of the food supply chain (such as ingredients, chemicals and packaging) may be in short supply. In combination, these two factors will not cause an overall shortage of food in the UK but will reduce availability and choice and increase the price, which will affect vulnerable groups. The UK growing season will have come to an end, so the agri-food supply chain will be under increased pressure for food retailers. Government will not be able to fully anticipate all effects on the agri-food supply chain. There is a risk that panic buying will disrupt food supplies.
...
Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by rises in the price of food and fuel.

[bronxiteforever]

8. Thank you so much for posting Muriel!