Labour pull clear of Tories as new poll shows voters prefer Corbyn over May as PM

[Ken Burch]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-tories-poll-latest-lead-jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-pm-general-election-five-points-bmg-a7988166.html


Labour 42%

Conservatives 37%


Who would make the best prime minister:

Corbyn 32%
May 30%

(For some reason, the Independent home page doesn't let you copy and paste their articles right now. Apologies).

[Denzil_DC]

1. Here:

Theresa May’s crisis has deepened today with a new poll showing Labour surging ahead of the Conservatives, while the public now also has a clear preference for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.

The exclusive survey for The Independent by BMG Research now has Labour five points ahead of the Tories, who are still reeling from a coup launched by ex-ministers to overthrow Ms May.

Mr Corbyn, fresh from a conference at which he cemented his position, has a two point lead over Ms May in terms of who the public would prefer to be running the country.

The numbers represent a stunning reversal in fortune for both the Tories and Labour, and the poll heaps yet more problems on top of Theresa May, whose authority had already been undermined by Boris Johnson even before her catastrophic conference speech.

The usual caveats about margins of error etc. and individual poll results apply. If it proves to be a trend, then the Tories should worry even more than they are now.

[Ken Burch]

2. Thanks. Don't know why I wasn't able to do that.

Bad as May is, the Tories don't have anyone they could bring in who'd be any improvement.

[Denzil_DC]

3. No problem. The Independent site's coding's always been odd.

I had to grapple with me mouse to avoid copying and pasting the whole page, then there's their weirdness with en rules that disappear in their online versions of articles.

I dunno. I haven't seen any comparative polling of the possible contenders for May replacements except within the Tory Party itself. And what little I have seen recently ranked Ruth Davidson as second.

Apart from the fact she's not an MP and might have trouble being parachuted into a seat Down South (she barely managed to scrape a directly elected MSP seat in their last "wave" election up here, and she's apparently been too busy being a telly star to demean herself to hold any constituency surgeries), it's a pretty desperate party that doesn't see through her schtick. She's also in the not too distant past been rather vocally anti-Brexit, though she always has other principles if you don't like her ones of the moment.

It's an even more desperate party that flails around between thinking Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg constitute the answer to all their problems, of course.

[Ken Burch]

4. Indeed.

n/t.

[T_i_B]

5. You've just hit the nail on the head there!

Last edited Fri Oct 13, 2017, 07:42 AM - Edit history (5)

I can't see Tory MP's, let alone Tory activists accepting somebody even vaguely non-loony like Phillip Hammond.

Boris Johnson is unfit to run a bath, let alone a government department, and his backstabbing has alienated a fair few people. Same goes for Michael Gove.

David Davis is failing catastrophically in his current job. Jeremy Hunt is not a good health secretary. Amber Rudd is not a good home secretary, and has a wafer thin majority in her constituency. Not only is Liam Fox terrible at his job, he should never have been let back into government after having previously being forced to resign over a nepotism scandal.

Jacob Rees Mogg is virtually a parody of Tory MP, has no ministerial experience and is also a complete idiot. Dominic Raab's name has also been mentioned, which is concerning as he may be an even bigger idiot!

Denzil may possibly be preoccupied with the idea of Ruth Davidson as Tory leader, but I don't think English Tories would accept her for a number of reasons, not least of which being that she isn't a Westminster MP.

Even though Theresa May is an atrocious PM, the alternatives are all really bad. My recommendation to Tories would be to forget about the willy-waving rubbish and concentrate on the basic stuff. Even if that means revoking article 50!

[Denzil_DC]

6. "Denzil may possibly be preoccupied with the idea of Ruth Davidson as Tory leader"

Last edited Fri Oct 13, 2017, 05:31 PM - Edit history (1)

Not preoccupied so much, but bemused at how high her rankings are whenever her name's allowed in one of these intra-party UK-wide polls, on the basis of a very slim résumé.

She may have jockeyed the Tories into some seats in Scotland on the back of blatant unionism, but there's less scope for that tactic in the rest of the country. File her as another yappy current media-darling clown in a party of clowns.

[T_i_B]

7. She cannot be the saviour of saner Tories....

...if she isn't in Westminster.

Also worth remembering what English grassroots Tories are like. They resented Scottish politicians during the Blair / Brown years and that won't have gone away. Some will resent Davidson's sexuality, and most will despise her for not being anti-EU enough for their tastes. Grassroots English Tories may loathe the SNP, but that doesn't make other Scottish politicians all that much more acceptable to their tastes either!

Grassroots Tory activists are going to want a hard right Brexshitter when May goes. If Andrea Leadsom had not pulled out of the leadership contest last year we might well have that instead of Theresa May.

[Denzil_DC]

8. Well, of course, I agree!

All you say about her background and the (aged) Tory grassroots is what I'd assume - some in the media and a few of the flailers may be drawn to the idea of a "kickboxing, lesbian Army Colonel (Honorary)" (yes, that's a direct paraphrase of the media buzz, and one she's embraced) as some sort of breath of fresh air, but even in those terms the shine has started to come off her, with one RW pundit on a recent TV newspaper headline roundup dismissing her as a "Twitter personality".

I've long held that nobody with a non-southern English/RP accent (never mind their background) is likely to be elected PM - see Gordon Brown!

Also, the few recent decent-sample-size polls we've had in Scotland have shown consistent gains for the SNP since the election and a marked reversal for the Tories, now either trailing Scottish Labour again or neck and neck with them. The reality of the parlous quality of their MPs who've taken over the seats, persistent scandals about some of their "colourful" backgrounds, and the paper tiger performances by their MPs at Westminster after all the brave words about "standing up for Scotland" and refusing to be mere lobby fodder have not gone unnoticed.

Leadsom, thankfully, doesn't seem to have much impetus nowadays. I'm not ready for any of the current contenders to lead the country over the cliff, but the prospect of someone whose politics resemble the US Tea Party and has been a UKIP bright hope in the past taking over the reins doesn't fill me with cheer.

[T_i_B]

9. I disagree about the "non-southern English/RP accent" bit as it happens!

I think that part will change as people search for an "authentic" politician who is different to the currently fashionable chancers like Rees Mogg that we have at present. But that change has to come from outside the Conservative party, which is so far away with the fairies that it faces a major task just to stop becoming a parody of itself!

[Denzil_DC]

10. I look forward to my hypothesis being disproven.

It's not something I concluded as a result of SNP influence or where I've lived the last 30 years or so - I felt that way before my politics and circumstances took any such turn (since Kinnock, I think), and it's not restricted to the Tories.

There were many reasons to reject Brown as PM, of course, but I don't think the stereotype of a dour, growling Scotsman helped!

[Denzil_DC]

11. Heh.

I just misclicked on my post after the page refreshed. The message came up:

You can't ignore yourself.

Well, why the hell not? Shoddy coding, Skinner.

[Ken Burch]

12. There's also the "rhyming slang" issue with Jeremy Hunt.

In addition to Ruth Davidson not having a seat at Westminster, there's the fact that most English Tories simply haven't heard of her.

[Denzil_DC]

13. "there's the fact that most English Tories simply haven't heard of her"

I've no idea on what you base that statement.

Please don't make me defend her credibility as a leadership contender, but I'll wager most English Tories certainly have, for better or worse, not least because at the Tory conference May latched on to the Tories' (shortlived? ) revival in Scotland as her consolation prize for the otherwise dismal showing in the snap election. Here's the most recent poll of Tory Party members:

The battle to be the next leader of the Conservative Party is a three horse race, a new poll of Tory members has suggested with Boris Johnson now the favourite to take over from Theresa May.

The Foreign Secretary is in pole position to succeed Mrs May with 23 per cent of the party’s rank and file backing him.

But Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Tory leader, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the popular backbench MP, are close behind on 19 per cent and 17 per cent.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/29/boris-johnson-favourite-among-tory-members-takeover-theresa/

Here's a roundup of other similar polls (most tend not to include her because, yes, she's not an MP, but when they do, she tends to poll in the mid- to high teens, in Opinium's results at least):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election#Polls_of_Conservative_Party_members (you'll need to paste that URL into your browser - pesky Wikipedia links)

[T_i_B]

17. I would say she's the 2nd most prominent Scottish politician...

...after Nicola Sturgeon.

And it's worth remembering that Conservative party activists do know some stuff about their own party. I may not credit them with many things but I will credit them that much.

[Denzil_DC]

18. Probably a fair assessment. She's been on "Have I Got News for You" and everything.

Can "Strictly" be far behind?

Though it was alarming how few people in Scotland polled as knowing who Kezia Dugdale was even during the time when she was on telly every night telling us how awful the SNP was and the Tories looked like a fair bet in certain seats *wink wink* during the last election. If you're relatively immersed in politics, it can come as a surprise how little consistent attention some folks pay to it. That's maybe why we're in the mess we're in!

But I'd agree, your average Tory member (a grisly mental image after a heavy supper) is probably quite clued up about the doings of the party.

Not wishing to up Davidson's profile even more, but apart from the self-inflated mythology that's built up around her as an "SNP Slayer" etc. etc. (just don't show her the latest polls up here), I suspect one reason she polls relatively well among Tories at the moment is because she fits the profile in the poll I mentioned down yonder in my "sidetrack" reply:

The only person who the public thought would do better than May was a generic “someone quite young and able who is not currently in government”… which, of course, is a recipe for respondents to imagine an ideal candidate who may very well not exist, especially not among the select group of people with a reasonable chance of winning the leadership of the Conservative party.

[Ken Burch]

19. I wasn't speaking of her qualifications-just familiarity.

My impression is that Wesminster Tory types simply wouldn't be aware of her. They re unaware of many things.

[Denzil_DC]

20. I didn't say anything about Davidson's "qualifications", I was directly addressing familiarity

in terms of her "credibility as a leadership contender", since you claimed "there's the fact that most English Tories simply haven't heard of her". That's not a fact. When she's included in the polls of Tory members, she generally matches or beats Rees-Mogg!

Look down this thread, and you'll find a number of us who are directly exposed to UK media on a daily basis (heaven help us) who disagree with your impression.

Whatever other problems she has (don't get me started), brand recognition isn't among them.

[Ken Burch]

21. I stand corrected then.

n/t.

[LeftishBrit]

15. Nowadays, they have

She had a big spot at the Tory conference. But, as much of the Tory base is both homophobic, and in many cases suspicious of anyone who isn't *English*, she has very little chance of becoming leader,

[Ken Burch]

22. Fair enough.

I was working out to a stereotypical view that Westminster Tories would see everything through an Anglocentric point of reference.

[Denzil_DC]

16. Anyway, we sidetracked on to Davidson etc. because

I said "I haven't seen any comparative polling of the possible contenders for May replacements except within the Tory Party itself".

On looking around, there doesn't seem to have been any polling done at all about whether anyone but May would perform better in a match-up against Corbyn.

I did find this:

ICM also asked about possible alternative leaders to Theresa May, underlining one of the problems the Conservatives have – in every named case (Johnson, Rudd, Hammond, Rees-Mogg, Patel and Green) people thought they would do worse than Theresa May would at the general election. The only person who the public thought would do better than May was a generic “someone quite young and able who is not currently in government”… which, of course, is a recipe for respondents to imagine an ideal candidate who may very well not exist, especially not among the select group of people with a reasonable chance of winning the leadership of the Conservative party.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9948

For context of the poll mentioned in the OP, here's a roundup of polls since June of May v. Corbyn:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#May_vs_Corbyn

May's generally been ahead, but they're tied in the latest YouGov/The Times poll.

The same sort of roundup for Tory v. Labour:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017

It's trending to more or less neck and neck still - +/-3% isn't safely outside the margin of error for most polls. In terms of a real GE result, given the way our electoral college usually works, Labour would need to be significantly ahead percentage-wise in order to stand a chance of winning a majority.

[LeftishBrit]

14. Exactly

'Jeremy Hunt is not a good health secretary' = understatement of the century.

As regards Ruth Davidson: the Tories are grudgingly grateful to her at the moment because the unexpectedly high showing of Scottish Tories saved the party from complete defeat at the General Election; but the Tory base are NOT going to go for a Scottish lesbian as leader. One of the big things they held against Gordon Brown was that he was Scottish; and at least he was an MP in Westminster.

Jacob Rees Smugg is soooo 1831 as an MP; the 1832 Reform Act should have put an end to people like him!

[The King of Prussia]

23. Ruth Davidson

Very unlikely to replace Mrs May:
1. Not English (the last non-English Tory PM was Bonar Law!)
2. Not straight
3. Not an MP (how easy would it be for her to win a by-election? Even in a safe seat - for a start reasons 1 & 2 would alienate a lot of Tory voters down south).

Even by Tory standards this is an extra-ordinarily untalented government. And yet most of them have good degrees from Oxbridge. How does that happen?

[T_i_B]

24. Speaking as somebody with an openly gay Tory for an MP....

...I think that Davidson's sexuality would be far less of an issue than her views on leaving the EU, which would make her totally unacceptable to grassroots Tories.

Tory activists are for the most part wildly anti EU and therefore not inclined to support anyone who doesn't back leaving the EU at any cost to the hilt. That's a major reason why it is difficult for any suitable replacement for Theresa May to emerge out of that bunch of clowns.