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T_i_B

(14,738 posts)
Sat Jul 2, 2016, 04:24 AM Jul 2016

If Labour won’t stand up for Remain voters, it’s time for a new party

http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2016/07/who-will-speak-48

BARELY more than a week has gone by since 37% of eligible British voters backed Brexit—52% of those who participated—but already the political landscape is transformed. With Boris Johnson out of the Conservative leadership contest, the choice of the next prime minister is one between various shades of isolationist Euroscepticism.

And beyond the transactional costs of leaving the EU, there is the shift in the character of the country’s politics that is undoubtedly now underway. Insinuations that immigration is, per se, bad, are hardening into a new common sense. Other European peoples are coming to be talked of as if they were merely negotiating opponents, even enemies, rather than allies and partners. The ugly wave of xenophobic attacks that has followed the Leave vote has attracted opprobrium from across the political spectrum, but it did not arise in a vacuum. Many Britons rightly worry about what is becoming of their country.

To be fair, voters who rejected Brexit are not entirely voiceless. The Liberal Democrats under Tim Farron have confirmed they will run in the next election on a pro-EU ticket; and picked up 10,000 new members as a result. The Scottish National Party under Nicola Sturgeon is pushing to ensure that Scotland’s vote for Remain is heeded. Sadiq Khan is lobbying to protect London’s access to the single market (how this can be done while the capital is still wired into the rest of the country’s economy is unclear). But as welcome as the Lib Dem initiative is, it is not clear whether Mr Farron and his seven fellow MPs are the force needed to stand up to Britain’s new, illiberal establishment. And Ms Sturgeon and Mr Khan owe their loyalty just to small minorities of the country.

The best existing hope of a strong, national voice for the 48%ers surely lies with Labour. If Mr Corbyn can be forced out, perhaps a new, moderate, pro-European leadership can reorient the party: seizing the opportunity to nab liberal Tory voters from under the nose of Ms May, say, or Ms Leadsom; challenging the new prime minister to negotiate in the interests of an open and prosperous Britain; and, yes, if circumstances change sufficiently, floating the possibility that Britain revisit its choice of June 23rd.

If not—if Mr Corbyn hangs on, or is replaced by another luke-warm Remainer—and unless the Lib Dems can pull off the sort of rise that, at the moment, looks unlikely, Britain needs a new party of the cosmopolitan centre. This might be a splinter from Labour (entirely possible, especially if Mr Corbyn’s opponents fail to unseat him this summer) or from the Tories (most of the party's One Nation sorts are lining up behind Ms May, though without a tremendous deal of enthusiasm). Or it may be something completely new: a fresh party, unsullied by the past, dedicated to keeping Britain open, tolerant and as close to the rest of its continent as possible.
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Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
1. The Bagehot column...
Sat Jul 2, 2016, 08:50 AM
Jul 2016

I can't disagree with most of that, but what we also need is a strong pan-European Left-Green party, with power in some significant countries as well as in the EU parliament, in order to push for much reform of EU institutions and policies, taking down some of the neoliberalism and promoting socially- and environmentally-healthy policies.

T_i_B

(14,738 posts)
2. The Green Party is strongly for keeping us in the EU
Sat Jul 2, 2016, 10:19 AM
Jul 2016

Because the EU has done a huge amount for the environment. Also, the campaign to leave the EU was dominated by climate change denialists.

However, now more than ever I think the Greens, Lib Dems, Labour and even pro EU Tories need to unite and work together to stop this country tearing itself apart.

mwooldri

(10,303 posts)
3. When the new Con leader is selected...
Sat Jul 2, 2016, 06:24 PM
Jul 2016

... and when Cameron is out and the new person in, the pro-Europe MPs need to have a vote where 2/3rds need to win... kick the Tories out, go to the country again.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
4. 69% of Labour voters voted Remain...only 42% of Tory voters did.
Sun Jul 3, 2016, 03:16 AM
Jul 2016

That proves it wasn't Corbyn's fault. It wasn't possible to get the pro-Remain Labour vote much higher than that.

T_i_B

(14,738 posts)
5. Do we have to explain this again?
Sun Jul 3, 2016, 05:36 AM
Jul 2016

Support for leaving the EU was at its highest in a lot of Labour voting communities, especially old coal mining towns and villages such as the area where I live, where a strong, effective effort from the Labour leader would have made a big difference. We needed a strong Labour voice to point out how EU funding affects these areas, and that the problems we face in these areas, particularly with regards to coal and steel are far more due to the actions of those at Westminster.

Corbyn failed.

It's clear now that Jeremy Corbyn does not speak for those of us who want to stay in the EU. In fact he doesn't seem to be speaking for anyone other than himself. Furthermore, it looks more and more like he is being propped up by the unions solely to extract as many concessions as they can grab before they jettison him.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
6. Corbyn did all he could.
Sun Jul 3, 2016, 05:54 AM
Jul 2016

He couldn't have stayed an honest person if he hadn't acknowledged that, while Remain was the right choice, many of those voting Leave were driven by legitimate economic grievances. You're basically angry because he didn't make speeches that were passionately delusional, speeches that pretended the EU was Utopia and that EU austerity programs had nothing to do with any of the problems involved.

As I understand, LabourIN were upset that Corbyn wouldn't allow them to talk about racism or immigration on the stump-and he was right to do it, because all of them would have simply appeased the anti-immigrant demagogues. None would have denounced Farage or Boris for the anti-immigrant hate campaign they were running(I don't think Eagle or Watson or any of that lot denounced Farage's "Breaking Point" poster and battle bus graphic). Winning by appeasing the bigots would have been meaningless.

And let's face it, most of the shadow cabinet would have attacked him for doing the only thing that would possibly have won back the North for Remain...proposing a massive program of state investment to revitalize the Northern economy. They'd have instantly disavowed it and made Corbyn look like an idiot.

And none of the "establishment" figures you would prefer to be leader, such as Burnham or Eagle or Watson,

The percentage voting Remain among Labour voters was nearly identical to the percentage voting Remain among SNP voters in Scotland. Therefore, there is no reason to treat Corbyn as any more of a failure in this campaign than Nicola Sturgeon has.

If you want Corbyn out, follow the rules...get someone to challenge Jeremy, have the contest under the same rules as 2015(the only truly democratic way to have it)and accept that Jeremy is entitled to an automatic place in the contest as the incumbent. If you really think the party is turning against him, you should be willing to accept that as the only decent way to resolve all of this.

It's not legitimate to simply expect Corbyn to leave and then to have a contest in which only centrist status quo types(i.e., everyone who voted yes on the "no-confidence motion&quot are permitted to run. You know Corbyn will never accept those terms and that the vast majority of Labour members would never consider the winner of such a contest the legitimate leader of the party.

So it's either accept the rules and proceed democratically, or do what you really want to do and form SDP Mark 2-if you do that, remember that it can't lead to anything different than what happened last time(other than a poorer showing, since the LibDems are now essentially extinct and thus can't offer anything close to a viable "alliance&quot .

T_i_B

(14,738 posts)
7. Lib Dems are gaining quite a few new members since the referendum
Sun Jul 3, 2016, 06:15 AM
Jul 2016

The Clegg years were disastrous, but at the present time they are clearly more competent than Corbyn led Labour, and maybe they could even be more credible. Although it would help if they had some sort of local presence where I live (they haven't even stood for council elections here since 2011)

Heck, even the Greens are beginning to look a more attractive proposition than Labour right now. Not only will they represent remain voters where Corbyn won't, but they aren't spending their whole time fighting themselves!

Oh, and please don't try to spin this disaster away from Corbyn. You weren't out there campaigning and talking to voters during the referendum campaign. And you don't know the old mining areas which went "leave". It's those of us who were out there campaigning and working who have come to the inevitable conclusion about Corbyn.

RogueTrooper

(4,665 posts)
9. It will be interesting to see where the Lib Dem's vote comes from this time
Sun Jul 3, 2016, 09:02 AM
Jul 2016

I have always thought Clegg and the orange bookers to by a by-product of all those years winning by-elections in seats held by the Tories. All those years selected candidates who would appeal to a certain type of disaffected Tory voter and appeal the Labour crossover votes.

With the Labour Party's split between the Leave leaning leadership and Remain supporting activist base it will be interesting to see where the votes and support will come from.

T_i_B

(14,738 posts)
12. Depends how long it takes people to forgive them over tuition fees
Sun Jul 3, 2016, 01:51 PM
Jul 2016

The Lib Dems still carry a lot of baggage from the coalition.

As to the Orange Book nonsense, what I found with the Lib Dems is that they acted as a sort of surrogate Labour when up against the Tories and as a sort of surrogate Tory party when up against Labour. They can't continue with that tactic any longer.

Personally I do think that speaking strongly for the "remain" cause, and building alliances with like minded groups such as the Greens would be the best way forward for the Lib Dems.

 

Ken Burch

(50,254 posts)
13. Corbyn DID represent Remain voters.
Mon Jul 4, 2016, 02:01 AM
Jul 2016

There was nothing he could have said in any of those Northern towns, without promising to defy EU spending rules, that would have shifted any more voted than he shifted. Pretending that the EU was Utopia and pandering to anti-immigrant feeling wouldn't have made a difference(it didn't when Ed Miliband tried it in 2015.

BTW, Corbyn's own constituency voted 76% Remain. That wouldn't have happened if the voters there had believed him to be a closet Leave supporter.

T_i_B

(14,738 posts)
14. As somebody who lives and works in said Northern towns...
Mon Jul 4, 2016, 12:58 PM
Jul 2016

I can assure you that you are totally wrong. I came across people who voted leave due to dissatisfaction with his leadership, and others who did were pro-Corbyn but voted leave because they didn't think he came across as convinced of the merits of staying in. Corbyn was a liability in the referendum and he's become even more of a liabity and a lame duck since. He clearly does not represent those of us unhappy with the result where SNP, Greens and Lib Dems do.

Denzil_DC

(7,241 posts)
8. T_I_B, there's been a conspicuous absence of comment on this thread of mine
Sun Jul 3, 2016, 08:21 AM
Jul 2016

on this group (for some reason, it's gotten more interest, appreciation and replies on Good Reads, where I cross-posted it):

Don't blame Jeremy Corbyn - polls show only Tory voters could have kept us in the EU: http://www.democraticunderground.com/108810890

If you don't agree with John Curtice's analysis, I'd be interested to know why.

But I don't think a change of leader in itself is going to make any difference, given Curtice's take, and from what he says, no other leader is likely to have been able to improve the result. Constant carping from within the PLP didn't exactly strengthen Corbyn's hand throughout. The PLP can't constantly undermine him then complain that he couldn't reach out to their constituents!

Corbyn couldn't persuade a significant number of Tory voters to vote Remain - why would they listen to him? Cameron couldn't reach out to that constituency himself - Curtis's conclusion. The rest was up for grabs, and Curtice says the result is about as good as Labour could expect from its own support.

In the end, Labour's infight isn't mine, but if we don't identify the reasons for failure (Curtis talks a lot about the effects of globalization and ineffective reactions to it), then we'll never be able to address them.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,316 posts)
10. I disagree with Curtice, because his 'reasoning' is bad
Sun Jul 3, 2016, 09:37 AM
Jul 2016

"across Britain as a whole only around two-thirds (63 per cent according to Lord Ashcroft, 65 per cent as estimated by YouGov) of those who voted Labour in 2015 voted to remain in the EU. The party was never likely to achieve much more than this. "

That's not 'reasoning', it's just fatalism. He gives no reason the Labour vote is limited to that. He says there are class and age differences in how people voted, but that doesn't mean it's impossible to get people to listen to the leader and party with which they identify, or to get more or those leaning to Remain (eg younger people) to actually vote. The argument that Corbyn shares blame with Cameron isn't about what the Labour figures were; it's about whether Corbyn put enough effort into the campaign. The non-cooperation of Corbyn's office with the Remain campaign looks bad, to me.

Denzil_DC

(7,241 posts)
11. But to what extent was this an anti-Cameron vote anyway?
Sun Jul 3, 2016, 10:15 AM
Jul 2016

Last edited Sun Jul 3, 2016, 11:03 AM - Edit history (1)

And then there's my point about the very public griping from the PLP about Corbyn, which they didn't even let up with during the referendum campaign itself.

Sorry, just dismissing his "reasoning" (scare quotes noted) as bad isn't an argument. Look at the data he's drawing on, and bear in mind he's never shown signs of being particularly partisan, and has been the bearer of bad and unwelcome polling news for those of us on the broad left for many, many years.

I don't see Curtice's conclusion as fatalism, more realism. His argument's pretty clear, and maybe unwelcome for Labour. It's a fact that there hasn't been wholehearted support within Labour, let alone those who may have happened to vote Labour in a certain election, for the EU since the UK joined. That's not confined to the left of the party, however that's defined now.

Heck, up here in Scotland, Sturgeon could in no way be accused of campaigning half-heartedly, and did her damnedest to run the very sort of positive pro-EU membership campaign that people have been bemoaning the lack of.

She still couldn't carry a significant proportion of SNP voters with her. Here's Curtice again:

Indeed, SNP supporters are at least as divided about the referendum as their Labour counterparts, maybe even more so. For, at 73%, support for Remain in these polls amongst Labour supporters was a little higher than it was amongst SNP voters, and, conversely, support for Leave was a little lower. These figures are in fact very similar to those for Labour supporters in polls taken across Great Britain as a whole.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/06/so-just-how-united-are-the-snp-on-europe/


There have been ludicrous attempts since the result from those outside the SNP to blame her for not turning out a better Remain result up here (even a petition calling for her to resign as First Minister). They haven't gained any serious support, for obvious reasons.

SNP voters will have voted Leave for a variety of reasons. One of the most notable I've witnessed discussed (and I must admit they have a point) was what some people saw as shameful victimization of Greece. As a potentially small member state within the EU (whose economy, admittedly, is currently in nowhere near the long-term mess Greece's is), it's not surprising that some might take that as a warning about what might lie ahead if a second independence referendum was successful and Scotland ended up in the EU without the rest of the UK.

Sturgeon still has the support of these people who voted Leave. In fact, her support and approval ratings have grown again since the referendum, as has the SNP's membership. Some SNP voters just didn't agree with her.

I don't think some voters were in a listening mood any more, for a variety of reasons. And the media narrative didn't help, obviously - if it wasn't propelling pro-Leave propaganda, it was spreading complacency about Remain's prospects.

We went through this with Labour up here during the 2015 general election. Labour canvassers in what used to be its heartland with vast majorities reported that in whole streets, "There's no talking to people any more." They weren't listening. It didn't stretch to the same level of antagonism in this referendum, but there comes a point where people are unpersuadable.

It'll be interesting to see how support for EU membership stands up in Scotland in coming months. Maybe it's not so much EU membership in itself some people were voting against as the sort of EU membership we suffered from under successive UK governments. Or maybe there was an anti-Cameron element to the vote, or maybe it just stirred up too many memories about Project Fear in our own referendum - many of the arguments about the perils of Leave were identical to those about the perils of Yes, and to hear them coming from the very same public figures won't have helped!


ETA (nearly done, promise!): As for not campaigning with Cameron, we know that both main parties were using the Scottish referendum as a model for campaigning. Labour got slaughtered in Scotland for sharing "No" platforms and agendas with the Tories - far from the only reason they imploded so badly afterward, but definitely a factor, and one they took very much to heart.

I seriously doubt that any Labour leader in Corbyn's shoes would have wanted to be more closely associated with the Cameron-led campaign, for that reason. It's not as if he was running it well or serving as an effective figurehead anyway.
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