Two diff ppl in past 2 days have told me "If England votes to Leave, I don't want to stay here."

[auntpurl]

Not because of possible economic collapse (although, that too!), but because if the people of England really want to vote to become provincial xenophobic isolationists cut off from the rest of the world, my friends don't want to live in a country with people like that.

I am married to one of the people I reference who are considering leaving the EU if the Leave campaign prevails, so this referendum could seriously affect the future for me.

Anyone else seriously considering leaving if Leave wins?

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. It'd make it a worse place, but I wouldn't go that far

I did say that before the 1997 election - that if the Tories were voted in again after the meanness and cock-ups of the Thatcher and Major years, I'd emigrate, because the electorate would have shown themselves incapable of electing anyone else, no matter how bad the Tories were.

[auntpurl]

2. It's how I felt in America when Bush won his second term.

Just looking around thinking, who are you people?

[Ironing Man]

3. ...

i'll admit to more than a whiff of that - i just don't get why anyone would genuinely think that Brexit would cure what they say is a problem without bringing much greater problems that they really won't like. its like finding myself in Wonderland where people are talking about how healthy it is to breate underwater and how Hyenas make excellent household pets.

if theres a leave vote, and as seems likely a leave vote will trigger a second, but this time successful indyref in Scotland, we might seriously consider Scotland (i lived in Scotland for 8 years, my eldest daughter still lives in Scotland) - this is not from some great love of the EU, nor a belief that an Independant Scotland will be a land of milk and honey where the Lion will frolic with the Lamb, rather that i genuinely think that Brexit will bring in huge economic recession or depression, and that we'll get some pretty unpleasant governments, a poisionous/toxic body politic, and that England and Wales will swing chaoticly from left to right to left and back again with each swing going further from propserity and civility. Scotland will feel the effects of that, but hopefully less so.

we're fortunate, we have transferable skills and capital - not to mention Australian and NZ passorts - we'd see how it went, we're not going to shoving stuff in the car on the 24th June, but it's something we'd keep an eye on and keep our options open.

[auntpurl]

4. Yeah, nothing is going to happen even if Leave wins for something like 3 years

The policies won't go into effect right away.

I just keep thinking all the Leave voters are pluralities of the yobs that rioted in Marseille, St George flags at the ready. How many of them ARE there? There must be other groups of Leave voters, but I don't know who they are.

I love Scotland. My husband and I could both likely find jobs there. How does it work if Scotland goes Indie and enters the EU, in terms of the currency? Euros or Scottish Pounds?

We also have ties in France and Switzerland. (Although I'm not in love with living in France - I've done it before.)

I'd go to NZ in a heartbeat but it's too far from some elderly family for us. In another 10 years, our options open wider. Canada is definitely on the table.

[Ken Burch]

15. So the UK's MEPs would just go on being MEPs?

They wouldn't be out of a job on Friday?

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. Yeah, they'll carry on until there's a formal exit

Only Greenland (on achieving self-rule) and Algeria (on gaining independence from France) have left the European bloc, and the only legal pathway out of the current EU is through article 50, inserted in the 2009 Lisbon treaty. This allows a country two years to negotiate the terms of its exit from the moment it notifies the EU of its intention to leave. A Brexit vote does not represent that formal notification. Those playing for time will argue that six weeks must be allowed for legal challenges to the referendum result, so at the very least it might be best to wait for the result to be immune from legal interference.

But once the notification is triggered, negotiations cannot extend beyond a two-year notice period, unless all remaining EU member states agree to such an extension. It would therefore take just one member state to insist the divorce must happen at the end of the two years.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/31/what-happens-next-if-britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu

The form of any withdrawal agreement would depend on the negotiations and there is therefore no guarantee the UK would find the terms acceptable. The EU Treaties would cease to apply to the UK on the entry into force of a withdrawal agreement or, if no new agreement is concluded, after two years, unless there is unanimous agreement to extend the negotiating period.

During the two-year negotiation period, EU laws would still apply to the UK. The UK would continue to participate in other EU business as normal, but it would not participate in internal EU discussions or decisions on its own withdrawal. On the EU side, the agreement would be negotiated by the European Commission following a mandate from EU ministers and concluded by EU governments “acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.” This means that the European Parliament would be an additional unpredictable factor in striking a deal.

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/the-mechanics-of-leaving-the-eu-explaining-article-50/

[non sociopath skin]

6. We've talked about Scotland too as we live in Northumberland, only one stop away.

As a Transatlantic family, the States under Bernie might have been an option but under Trump - or even Hillary - considerably less so.

The Skin

[Ghost Dog]

5. I left in 1987.

Most don't see much choice.

Sympathise.

Edit: If certain parties have their way, the forthcoming major war and therefore martial law will change everything, anyway.

[Nihil]

7. Not an option for me but, until this week, I hadn't even considered that the Leavers might win.

I too am starting to get concerned about the apparent "groundswell" of support
for national stupidity that could only too easily be reflected in the polling booth.

I work in an international company whose registered head office is in London
(although the CEO is now based in New York). I am surrounded by Europeans
(EU & Nordic) as well as a fair scattering from further afield (including Russia,
Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon, Caribbean Islanders, Antipodeans, Central Africans).
Our whole business works because we deal fairly with *all* countries so we could
be unbelievably badly hit if the "Leave" idiots actually win: the company would
survive but the London office (including the IT department where I work) would not
only lose people directly (due to the fascists clamping down on work visa rules)
but quite likely have to relocate out of the UK in order to maintain the business
relationships with a number of other countries. That's a serious job risk for someone
who isn't old enough to retire yet but is viewed as "well past it" when job hunting.

My children are still starting their own lives (finishing education, working first jobs).
They find the unwanted excess of job seekers from Eastern Europe, China & Africa
to be a real issue but not one that blinds them to the benefits of the EU - just something
that needs to be resolved by politicians who aren't themselves profiting from the
increased numbers of immigrants.

My siblings are getting old (brother + one brother-in-law both being cancer survivors
with a risk of recurrence). I am now the only one of us who is still working in
full-time employment (and as anything other than a carer). They rely on their
pensions supporting them for the rest of their lives.

My parents-in-law are in their eighties and have been the cause of several
emergency dashes & upheavals over the last few years (only going to get worse).
They rely on the NHS, on their pensions and yes, on their only UK-based child (and
her family) being able to drive to them whenever something goes wrong.

From my perspective, there is nothing wrong with the EU that a little political will
couldn't resolve (not that spines are ever in surplus with politicians) whilst the
amount of good that it provides is immeasurable.

I hadn't anticipated that there might be sufficient numbers of low-information
voters (and/or desperate gamblers out to make a profit at any cost) that the
vote could become close or that there could even be enough people who would
believe the inconsistent & disconnected bollocks being disseminated by the "Leave"
campaign.

The realisation that I may have over-estimated the intelligence of my fellow Britons
is as worrying as it is surprising. This could mean a stressful few weeks ahead until
the issue is resolved (one way or the other).

Like I said, leaving the UK simply isn't an option for me but I can't honestly fault
anyone else for investigating the possibility.

[auntpurl]

8. We've got a similar issue with elderly family

but they're in Europe, not in the UK. We need easy access, so if we leave UK, we're not going far.

The Sun predicts Leave will win. I know, it's the fucking Sun, but they've not been wrong in any election or referendum vote since the 70's apparently. I read that on Twitter so take it with a grain of Twitter, but still. There is obviously a huge groundswell of support for Leave as you say, and in that I don't know ANYONE who supports Leave (anecdotal of course but still!), I have to assume that the Leave group and I have very little in common.

My spouse also works at an international company with head offices in the States. It will absolutely affect every company in that situation IMO. And I believe that effect will be felt far before any of the actual changes to policy come into play. The economy is going to react. FTSE was down by over 100 points yesterday. This is SUCH a stupid idea.

Re: your children, unless they were hoping for jobs as builders, rubbish collectors, house cleaners, or carers, it's unlikely the Eastern Europeans are taking jobs they really wanted, isn't it? I'm glad they can see the bigger picture.

[Nihil]

9. I sympathise.

I have met a few people who support Leave but they could all be described
as either "Too young to have noticed the real world issues" or "Old enough to
fondly remember the Empire (and, in some cases, fought for it)".


> The economy is going to react. FTSE was down by over 100 points yesterday.

The Forex traders must be salivating like it was 1992 all over again ...


> Re: your children, unless they were hoping for jobs as builders, rubbish collectors,
> house cleaners, or carers, it's unlikely the Eastern Europeans are taking jobs
> they really wanted, isn't it?

Not quite but that smacks of the Niemöller quote doesn't it? ("First they came for the ...&quot

I'll just leave it at that but perhaps the "Leave" campaign has been raising support
from some of the very people who "really wanted" jobs that are below the eyelevel
of the "Remain" supporters and that's why we're getting caught by surprise?

[auntpurl]

10. Good point.

Maybe. My post was a little elitist, eh? Thinking more deeply about this is always a good thing - thanks for the reminder.

[Ghost Dog]

11. Fucking Murdoch's Sun...

...As a broadsheet, it was founded in 1964 as a successor to the Daily Herald; it became a tabloid in 1969 after it was purchased by its current owners. It is published by the News Group Newspapers division of News UK, itself a wholly owned subsidiary of Rupert Murdoch's News Corp.[5][6]...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sun_(United_Kingdom)

[LeftishBrit]

12. Not in any imminent future...

if I didn't leave during all those years of Thatcher, I wouldn't just because of a Leave vote now. There are many reasons why I prefer to stay where I am, if possible.

However, if things seriously degenerate ... well, I do have dual citizenship with Canada, and yes, it's there at the back of my mind.

[auntpurl]

13. I don't think anyone has any real idea of what's going to happen if we Leave

that's one of the real failures of the Remain camp in my opinion.

I'm not in favour of leaving the UK at the moment - I really like it here. But my spouse is much more upset at the idea Leave could win. He's English, I'm an expat.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. FWIW, the bookies' odds still show 'leave' as most likely

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result?selectionName=leave

though it's getting closer. This close to the vote, I think they'll have already done what they can to even up their financial exposure to each side, and should be giving odds based mainly on their actual guess for the likelihood of the outcome. There's a chart here which I think is mainly based on those odds, so you can see where the movement has been: http://predictwise.com/politics/uk-politics

[geardaddy]

17. The unfortunate reality is if England votes Leave

it'll screw over Wales.

[LeftishBrit]

18. Not to mention screwing over Scotland, Northern Ireland, and most of England!

[geardaddy]

19. Yes, indeed!

[muriel_volestrangler]

20. Welsh polls are very similar to whole-of-Britain ones

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Wales

I think the blame is to be shared, if it happens.

[geardaddy]

21. Agreed.

There are many folks in Wales who are falling for the Vote Leave BS.

[T_i_B]

22. Depends where the manufacturing goes

Last edited Sat Jun 25, 2016, 04:51 AM - Edit history (1)

Hopefully a fair bit will go to Ireland. Also, Denzil_DC will be interested to learn that my views on an independent Scotland are being revised.

[muriel_volestrangler]

23. A friend of mine is wondering about moving north of the border

His father was born is Scotland, though he's lived his working life in England (actually, my friend plays the bagpipes ...)

[T_i_B]

24. I think they will need a fair bit of infrastructure

As a lot of the infrastructure Scotland needs is South of the border.

But yes, Scotland in the EU is a more attractive prospect than England out of the EU.

[Denzil_DC]

25. Well, all I can say to both of you is

that many have made a success of settling here, and we need more people.

I have never regretted the day I fled Thatcher and moved up here back in the 1980s. OK, I was in my 20s, not later in life, but like everywhere, it can be very welcoming to those who come with goodwill and an open mind. We have our share of headbangers, sure, but we try not to let them get us down. OK, maybe my liver might be healthier if I hadn't moved here (I wasn't much of a drinker in my 20s and the social drinking culture came as a bit of a shock to the system, though nobody literally twisted my arm), but it's got a lot going for it. Hope that survives all this nonsense.

[T_i_B]

28. My liver is going to improve because of this!

Why? Because I'm quite the CAMRA beer snob, and the sort of beers I like are going to become a lot more expensive due to exchange rates and increased import costs.

Plus we are all going to become a lot poorer as a result of leaving the EU.

[still_one]

26. That is what concerns me auntpurl, and the potential for xenophobia to spread

[Just reading posts]

27. Some people always say such things in advance of an unfortunate anticipated result of an election.

99.999% of them are just venting.