Hell freezes over? The NDP is LEADING in Alberta: new provincial election poll

[Ken Burch]

http://www.canada.com/contests/Forum+Research+poll+shows+pulling+ahead+Alberta+election+race/11000893/story.html

EDMONTON - A new Forum Research poll reports nearly four in 10 decided and leaning voters plan cast their ballots for the NDP on election day, while a quarter say they favour the Wildrose Party and 20 per cent say they will cast their ballot for the Progressive Conservatives.

The research firm says the results from its Wednesday and Thursday night polling represent a dramatic shift from its previous wave of surveys on April 10. At that point, the three main parties were essentially in a dead heat. The Wildrose had 30 per cent, New Democrats sat at 28 per cent and the PCs were at 27 per cent.

This was published in a right-wing paper, so they couldn't quite bring themselves to quote the full poll numbers. They are as follow:

NDP: 39%

Wildrose: 25%

Progressive Conservatives: 20%

(the other parties, including the Liberals, Greens and the so-called "Alberta Party", are all far behind in this poll)

[LeftishBrit]

1. Wow - from all I know of Alberta (and I have spent time there) - ZOICKS!

I really hope it happens.

[Fred Sanders]

2. Populism is on the rise because embracing sensible, scientific and economic policies based on logic

and reason and not ideology and the Bible is getting through to the masses, not by mass media but by social media.

Viva Syriza Party of Alberta!

Truly, unbelievably, jaw dropping poll....like Alabama turning Blue in 3 weeks.

39%, first past the poll system, could mean a majority socialist government in charge of Alberta and the Alberta Oil Sands.....and Keystone.

Astonishing:

"According to Forum’s research, the NDP are showing an edge in both Edmonton and Calgary. Nearly 40 per cent voters who supported the Tories in 2012 plan to cast their ballots for the New Democrats on election day, poll says."

NDP Leader Rachel Notley Shines in Best-Ever Alberta Leader's Debate

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/Braid+Notley+shines+best+ever+Alberta+leaders+debate/10999294/story.html

[Joe Shlabotnik]

3. I don't know much about the Alberta NDP

But are they really NDP or in a name only? From the article:

The New Democrats appear to have cobbled together an unusual coalition of the wealthy, the young, disaffected PCs and half the Liberal party.

Though I guess any shift away from the far right is great news.

[Ken Burch]

4. Obviously, any party that increases its traditional support level

will gain votes away from other parties.

That doesn't necessarily mean that party is diluting its principles...it can also mean that the voters in question are actually changing their minds on some issues.

And in Alberta, there have been times in the past where the PC government was unusual among PC governments for actually kind of living up to the "Progressive" part of its name.

It is weird that their getting some wealthy voters(and the PC's are retaining some least-wealthy voters)but as we have often seen, votes don't always choose based strictly on what you'd think would be their natural class interests(in Quebec in the 1960's, the Ralliement Des Creditistes-the Quebec branch of the federal Social Credit party-were quite popular among some of the poorest people in Quebec, which seems strange, because the Creditistes were deeply hostile to expanding the social wage, were anti-union, and had little interest in redistributing wealth. In that case, the Creditistes took the votes of poor Quebecers because many of them were ultra-traditionalist Catholics-the awful "every Jew who ever lived is to blame for the Crucifixion" types-who voted for that party in 1962 and 1963 because Vatican II was happening at the time and voting for a party led by a right-wing antisemite like Real Caoutte-a guy who actually once said that Hitler was his hero-was a way to express protest against the fact that the Church was embracing some social modernism and giving up some of their beloved old hatreds.

[Fred Sanders]

5. It is more than great news. And the coalition mentioned is the polled voting coalition, not the NDP party.

The Alberta NDP is well aligned with the social democratic, as in Swedish-like social democracy, national NDP that is the national official Oppostion.

[laundry_queen]

9. The Liberal party has been dead in Alberta...

Since the days of Trudeau. It IS part of the reason the NDP does better here than the Liberals do. Well, that and the Liberals can't seem to find an inspiring leader who can overcome the past. So it's not like the NDP 'stole' Liberals or something - there are hardly any here in the first place, LOL.

But no, the NDP in Alberta is not like the BC Liberals at all. Rachel Notley's father was once the NDP leader and from what I can tell has not moved significantly to the right (if any movement has happened at all) since that point in time that I can remember. Given I was only a child back when Grant Notley was leader but my father was obsessed with politics and I read his daily newspapers voraciously so I do remember quite a bit of it. Someone with a better memory can feel free to correct me if need be.

[Joe Shlabotnik]

10. Thanks,

that's about what I figured. I watched some highlights from the debate a few days ago, and she really does impress.

[canuckledragger]

6. Perhaps people are getting tired of the conservative oil baron party?

Now that they realize they will never see the profits of tar sands exploitation?

[Spazito]

7. It is certainly getting interesting here...

There is a sea of orange signs (NDP) in many Edmonton ridings, relatively few blue (Con) or blue/green (Wild Rose) ones.

The polls were disastrously wrong in the last election so Albertans aren't putting a great deal of trust in them this time but there is certainly something going on here, the Cons are in trouble for sure but, like last time, they could still win.

[laundry_queen]

8. I'm in the 'burbs

I work in Rachel Notley's riding, but live in a heavily conservative riding. Shockingly, there are orange signs on my street! Last election I didn't even see any in the whole town.

I'm not putting much faith in the polls either, like any Albertan after the last election, but I'm excited to see what happens on May 5. I voted early today, so I've done my part.

[Spazito]

11. I am pleasantly surprised by how many orange signs I am seeing!

My daughter lives in north west Edmonton and her riding is a sea of orange, it wasn't like that last election at all. I live in St. Albert and am seeing some orange but haven't really seen that many campaign signs for any of the parties here.

[laundry_queen]

12. New poll on the news

NDP leading the polls by double digits in a province-wide poll. Wow. In Edmonton, NDP has more than 50% support. In Calgary NDP is tied with PCs. However, provincially 48% of voters are still undecided, so who the heck knows.

[Dawson Leery]

13. Social Conservativism is losing in this election.

PC's at 20% is a massive blow to the movement.