The math doesn't look good

[magicguido]

[dalton99a]

1. Great explanation

[bucolic_frolic]

2. No surprise

From mid-February when the fatality rate was hovering around 3.9% on the worldwide Corona Website
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
one could estimate such numbers. 7.2 Billion people @4% is around 280 million.

But there was also the 1918 estimates. US population 1918 103 million.
Fatality rate 1%. US fatalities 675,000.

2020 population 327 million, that's 3.2 times 1918

675,000 x 3.2 = 2,160,000

But the fatality rate of coronavirus is higher, maybe 3.4 %

So 327,000,000 x .034 = 11,118,000

That number would be reduced of course if infection rate could be contained to 1/3 of the population. But how long to squeeze infections from society? As long as it's prevalent, it will keep infecting those not previously infected.

Again, this a seat of the pants, back of the envelope calculation from 6 weeks ago.

Most alarming is the fatality rate on the worldometers page, hovering now around 17%

SEVENTEEN PERCENT.

So yes do the math, it's not pretty, it's worse because response has been delayed and bungled in the US, and they still don't have a hard number for fatality rate. This video states 1%? He's either got more information than is being publicized, or doesn't want to be an alarmist.

[kiri]

4. three factors not taken into account

This is a fine description and presentation. The fundamental conclusions are surely correct. There are three factors not taken into account.

1. In every epidemic there are some people who have a natural immunity. Nobody knows why or how, and their number is estimated at between 0.1% and 10%. This fraction survives to repopulate. But in some cases this feature seems to have limited the spread.

2. Similarly, there are always a percentage of people who carry the disease pathogen but have no symptoms. I am not clear as to whether antibody and other tests uncover them. They are not to be blamed; again, nobody knows how or why, a neat immune system?

These "super carriers" evade testing because they are asymptomatic, but still spread. The most famous case was "Typhoid Mary".

2A. There is a subcategory--those that deliberately spread the disease, "prayer warriors", yearners for the 'end times'. ("If I die from this virus I will be with my Lord and the Day of the Resurrection will come sooner." real quote)

This factor cannot be ignored in this time of religious fervor. They may be only 10 or 100 (or 1000). But the hurt they can do is much greater than their numbers--in the name of god...

3. Darwin---well-known that those who die do not reproduce., i.e., have children.
A corollary is that those who die do not vote. Maybe we should re-do the census after all the dead and infirm are re-counted?

The death rate in red states seems to be higher. Of course, the death rate in blue cities is understandable---more people, more density.

[jimfields33]

3. Italy is at 10 percent right now. Dreadful!

China is at 3.4 percent. We’re at 1.34 percent. Hoping we don’t go higher.