Quantum Theory Used to Explain Behavior of Survey Respondents
Quantum Theory Used to Explain Behavior of Survey Respondents
By Traci Pedersen Associate News Editor
Reviewed by John M. Grohol, Psy.D. on June 22, 2014
Researchers were able to apply quantum theory typically used to explain the behavior of matter and energy on the atomic and subatomic level to figure out a strange pattern regarding how people respond to survey questions.
Human behavior is very sensitive to context. It may be as context-sensitive as the actions of some of the particles that quantum physicists study, said lead author Zheng Wang, Ph.D., associate professor of communication at Ohio State University.
By using quantum theory, we were able to predict a surprising regularity in human behavior with unusual accuracy for the social sciences in a large set of different surveys.
In fact, the researchers found the exact same pattern in 70 nationally representative surveys from Gallup and the Pew Research Center, as well as in two laboratory experiments. Most of the national surveys included more than 1,000 respondents.
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bananas
(27,509 posts)A Quantum Cognition Analysis of Daniel Ellsberg's Paradox
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=228x78056
How Quantum Probability Theory Could Explain Your Logical Fallacies
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=228x56734
Quantum Theory May Explain Wishful Thinking
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=228x51102
bananas
(27,509 posts)Context effects produced by question orders reveal quantum nature of human judgments
Zheng Wanga, Tyler Sollowaya, Richard M. Shiffrinb, and Jerome R. Busemeyerb
Significance
In recent years, quantum probability theory has been used to explain a range of seemingly irrational human decision-making behaviors. The quantum models generally outperform traditional models in fitting human data, but both modeling approaches require optimizing parameter values. However, quantum theory makes a universal, nonparametric prediction for differing outcomes when two successive questions (e.g., attitude judgments) are asked in different orders. Quite remarkably, this prediction was strongly upheld in 70 national surveys carried out over the last decade (and in two laboratory experiments) and is not one derivable by any known cognitive constraints. The findings lend strong support to the idea that human decision making may be based on quantum probability.
Abstract
The hypothesis that human reasoning obeys the laws of quantum rather than classical probability has been used in recent years to explain a variety of seemingly irrational judgment and decision-making findings. This article provides independent evidence for this hypothesis based on an a priori prediction, called the quantum question (QQ) equality, concerning the effect of asking attitude questions successively in different orders. We empirically evaluated the predicted QQ equality using 70 national representative surveys and two laboratory experiments that manipulated question orders. Each national study contained 6513,006 participants. The results provided strong support for the predicted QQ equality. These findings suggest that quantum probability theory, initially invented to explain noncommutativity of measurements in physics, provides a simple account for a surprising regularity regarding measurement order effects in social and behavioral science.
al bupp
(2,197 posts)but it does confirm a psychedelic insight I had 30-some years ago in college!
caraher
(6,279 posts)I think the hidden assumption all this work questions is a sort of "naive realism" regarding thoughts, opinions and beliefs. Do we have beliefs on topics that we've never been asked about? In some cases it's reasonable to imagine we do, but in many cases it seems just as reasonable that we don't unless we're in some sense "forced" to. So what mathematical framework is best suited to describing the "before measurement" state? It could well be a "non-classical" model.
Uncle Joe
(58,482 posts)For example, one of the surveys used in the study was a Gallup poll that asked Americans whether Bill Clinton was honest and trustworthy and whether Al Gore was honest and trustworthy.
The survey changed the order in which these questions were asked and, as expected, there were question-order effects found. When respondents were asked about Clinton first, 49% said that both Clinton and Gore were trustworthy. But when respondents were asked about Gore first, 56% said that both were trustworthy.
The pattern that quantum theory predicted was that the number of people who switch from yes-yes to no-no when the question order is reversed must be balanced by the number of people who switch in the opposite direction.
Indeed, the number of people who said no-no that both Clinton and Gore were not trustworthy went from 28 percent when the Clinton question was asked first to 21 percent when Gore was first. That seven percent decline essentially cancels out the 7 percent increase in the number of people who said yes-yes when the question order was reversed.
It's always moving and in many ways manipulable.
Thanks for the thread, bananas.