Econbrowser: The Employment Situation in Governor Walker’s Wisconsin in 2012: “Grim”

[swag]

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2012/09/the_employment_5.html

Menzie Chinn

From IHS-Global Insight, “U.S. Regional - Perspective Article: Swing States: Wisconsin,” 9/24/2012:

The employment picture in Wisconsin so far this year has been grim. Whereas the country has seen year-on-year (y/y) job growth above 1.0% each month through July, the Badger State has seen y/y declines every month. As of July, Wisconsin payrolls had shed 0.8% since the same time last year. Although the state's important manufacturing sector is creating jobs, expanding at a 1.3% pace since July 2011, many other sectors continue to decline. The already beleaguered construction sector continues to be pummeled, shedding 7.7% y/y in July because of continued weak demand for new single-family homes and a lack of public infrastructure projects. And contrary to the trend throughout most of the country, where professional and business services has been a stalwart of the recovery, that sector’s payrolls have declined 0.8% here. In addition, leisure and hospitality services jobs declined 6.7% from their July 2011 level. The finance sector continues to suffer as well, dropping 1.8% y/y in July. Although the state's jobless rate has remained below the national average, it continues to climb, with July bringing more bad news, when it climbed to 7.3% from 7.0% in June.

The following graph presents the Wisconsin situation vis a vis the region, and the US (through July):



The figure makes clear that Wisconsin is clearly underperforming. My personal view is that the belief in the possibility of expansionary fiscal contraction on the part of the Walker Administration might explain some of the divergence. (Perhaps the specificity of the Wisconsin macro conditions (i.e., Walker's fiscal policies) explains why the state is leaning Democratic, despite a poor employment situation.)

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[Scuba]

1. Governer (sic) Wanker, leading us straight to the bottom.

[julian09]

2. Vote him back in

[mysuzuki2]

3. Hey, he will create 250k jobs in his first term!

Won't he? Anyone ...

[cbrer]

4. Paul Ryan is studying whose playbook? nt