A Collapse of the Amazon Could Be Coming 'Faster Than We Thought'

[Uncle Joe]

Burning to create pastureland for cattle in Mato Grosso State, Brazil. Credit...Victor Moriyama for The New York Times

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Those stresses in the most vulnerable parts of the rainforest could eventually drive the entire forest ecosystem, home to a tenth of the planet’s land species, into acute water stress and past a tipping point that would trigger a forest-wide collapse, researchers said.

While earlier studies have assessed the individual effects of climate change and deforestation on the rainforest, this peer-reviewed study, published on Wednesday in the journal Nature, is the first major research to focus on the cumulative effects of a range of threats.

“This study adds it all up to show how this tipping point is closer than other studies estimated,” said Carlos Nobre, an author of the study. Dr. Nobre is a Brazilian Earth systems scientist who studies how deforestation and climate change might permanently change the forest.

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The new study found that a tenth of the Amazon was susceptible to becoming grassland or some other form of degraded ecosystem.Credit...Michael Dantas/Agence France-Presse, via Getty Images

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The collapse of part or all of the Amazon rainforest would release the equivalent of several years’ worth of global emissions, possibly as much as 20 years’ worth, into the atmosphere as its trees, which store vast amounts of carbon, are replaced by degraded ecosystems. And, because those same trees pump huge amounts of water into the atmosphere, their loss could also disturb global rainfall patterns and temperatures in ways that aren’t well understood.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/14/climate/amazon-rain-forest-tipping-point.html