The "Politics" are lining up for a Biden win and a Democratic "blue wave" in 2024

[lees1975]

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/12/the-politics-are-lining-up-for.html

There's a segment of the American electorate that lives isolated in its own media bubble, unaware of real live events or what's actually happening in politics. That's a problem, of course, but that whole segment is not large enough to win on the kind of nationwide scale that would be necessary to claim victory. The doom and gloom polls started coming out in October, suddenly, and with no real rational as to why there was such a shift in public opinion all of a sudden. Then, we had off-year elections which some media pundits jumped out to say were a "referendum on the Biden administration."

If that were the case, then it was a rather resounding referendum, right in the teeth of the polling data. Afterward, there was some backing down from the "referendum" talk.

Trump is going to get beat in the 2024 election, and the Republicans will struggle mightily to maintain their House majority, something I don't think they will get back. In all likelihood, the Democratic senate majority will remain slim, but intact. And yeah, I'm optimistic, but I think there's good reason to be this way.

[Baitball Blogger]

1. That's because ordinary Republicans are coming to the realization that their elected

officials are running a Casa de Locos.

No hiding the crazy in this House.

[MadameButterfly]

2. i'd just like to see it showing up in the polls

it's not like there hasn't been plenty of reason and time for Republicans to ditch Trump so far

[lees1975]

4. I think it is showing up in the data they are collecting

but their way of "factoring" public opinion is faulty. Or, their finance sources are telling them what they need to put out.
It's kind of interesting that the "marketing" polls in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, aren't showing the same data at all, and even YouGov and Morning Consult don't coincide with most of the doom and gloom. But the marketing polls aren't part of the composite. And I find it suspicious that an IPSOS poll found Biden with a lead in all but one battleground state, and just a couple of days later, a Wall Street Journal poll finds him losing in them. IPSOS is rated A, WSJ is a B poll I think, and heavily to the right.

Noting that there's been really not much more than a shoulder shrug from either the DNC or Biden Campaign over these polls also tells me they have more accurate internal data that has helped them lay out their strategy for marketing and getting out the vote. They've decided to soften up the battleground states with advertising while the GOP is in the primaries, before hitting the ground game in the summer. So their spending isn't dictated by reactionary moves from the other side.

[usonian]

3. Democrats win on key issues.

• Defend the constitution, and democracy itself. Here and on the front lines.
• Keep government from controlling your private life.
• Give the working person a break. Cut welfare for the rich.
• Protect and expand health care, and throttle AI-driven “death panel” mega-corporations..
• Make everyone pay their fair share.
• Protect individual rights..
• Have responsive, responsible government rather than contrived and fruitless culture wars.

People are getting tired of the clownshow.
And a party that benefits only Putin.

[lees1975]

5. Polls not mirroring election results

[PortTack]

7. That's right...but here's a really good bellwether

?si=bOHvVDdznUVpSJte

[lees1975]

13. And a lot of that overperforming is in red states.

[lees1975]

14. "This is not polling. This is real"

Two things that he points out here. One, how badly the polls missed the mid-terms in spite of their attempts to correct their data. Two, that it continues to defy polling data that wants, so badly, to indicate Biden isn't doing as well as he is.

Polls are polls. Elections are real.

Thanks for sharing this!!!!!!

[IronLionZion]

6. I hope so. The Gaza war throws a wrench into the mix

although the economic numbers are improving in the US. RW will still complain about inflation and housing costs but we're good on jobs and the stock market and even gas prices now.

[Sky Jewels]

18. Re: Gaza...The American public has a very short-term attention span.

Remember when people were predicting that the Afghanistan pull-out would have a big affect on voting? It did not.

I am not trying to minimize the horrors that are happening in Gaza. It is a decades-long shitshow coming to fruition. (Personally, I hope Biden steers the country away from the traditional support and funding of the monstrous and genocidal rightwing Israeli government.) But the reality is, it's likely that the majority of U.S. voters will have moved on from that issue 11 months from now.

[lees1975]

21. I think the Afghanistan may have indeed had a big effect on voting,

just not in a conservative direction. That airlift and evacuation, along with just getting out of a war we never should have been fighting in the first place, beyond disabling the Al Qaida forces that were there, were a whole lot more popular than the conservative dominated narrative wanted us to believe.

And I think that's what we're seeing now. Conservative media is controlling polling data in order to control the narrative and have it the way they want it, but voters are just not going along with that, so polls are saying one thing, election results quite another.

Gaza is a developing situation and Israel is our closest Middle Eastern ally. Those on the far left who are muttering and hollering and generally taking the side of Hamas are making a calculated political error, because Israel is good at security and good at propaganda, and they have documented and published the horror that took place on October 7th. They're falling behind in that game now, because they are basically pounding an impoverished territory to get at a small group of terrorist militants. There's plentu of fault to go around here, not just October 7. Who is Rashida Tlaib going to support when it comes down to Trump or Biden, huh? They won't go with Trump and they can't lay out and stay out either, or they lose bigger than most. So when the emotions die down, and we get to the point where genuine reason can be considered, they're going to have to acknowledge Biden's foreign policy experience worked again, especially when Netanyahu is held accountable for not doing anything when they knew this was coming.

Biden reacted as any American President would have after such a horrific terrorist attack, the worst against a Jewish population since the holocaust. But as the manner in which Israel is retaliating as continued, Biden't support has cooled off, as it should.

[Joinfortmill]

8. Amen and thank you

[wiggs]

9. goprs have been campaigning 24/7/12 since the election. dems have been governing, haven't really

started their 2023 potus push. Lots of truth-telling to come from dems and surrogates, and I hope it comes with the appropriate, deserved amount of ridicule, disdain, contempt, and outrage for what the other party has done.

[Mr. Evil]

10. Gen Z ain't playing.

They don't give a shit about the M$M and their narrative.
They don't give a shit about Hunter's (non) issues.
They don't give a shit about Joe's (bullshit) impeachment investigation.
They don't give a shit about republicans.
They don't give a shit about evangelicals and their ridiculous fucknuttery.
They do give a shit about women's healthcare and the availability of abortion.
They do give a shit about climate change and their livable future.
They do give a shit about simple truth over outrageous lies.
They do give a shit about democracy over a fascist dictatorship.
They do give a shit about aggressive gun control laws (especially banning assault weapons).

And there's 20 million more of them that are eligible to vote in 2024 than there were in 2016. By next year's election, probably a million or two more.
The vast majority of them absolutely hate TFG and everything else republicans want. Does that make me rest easy? Nope, but, it does give me more confidence that my vote for President Biden will mean that much more of a contribution to his landslide victory.

Fuck the M$M and their corporate bullshit.

[Sky Jewels]

20. And along with all those millions of Gen Zers who will have turned 18,

by November 2024 there will have been a loss of roughly 12 million Americans (versus 2020) belonging to the more-susceptible-to-propaganda-generations born before 1965, including hundreds of thousands of rightwing idiots who believed Russian-pushed anti-science b.s. on Facebook about masks and vaccines and ultimately croaked from Covid.

So we are looking at a combined voting demographic shift of more than 30 million people. And obviously not all older people are Rs and not all younger people are progressive, but the generalized trends are there.

[GopherGal]

24. There's a reason they're pooping their pants over Taylor Swift encouraging her fans to register

They know an energized cohort of Gen Z young women aren't likely to be voting R.

[Mr.Bill]

11. I look at it this way.

If the Biden campaign knows they can beat Trump, why beat him up before he wins the nomination? They know what's going on, and they know what to do. Just like they knew in 2020.

[OAITW r.2.0]

19. I think so, too.

Democrats should let the MAGAts run their choice for 2024. Sure, lots of polls show the race close or Trump even ahead. I want to see Trump locked in as their choice in 2024.....then reality sets in. Millions of new young voters, Trump's legal woes, and a slow implosion will lead to a Biden win that will be even greater than the delta in 2020.

[LakeArenal]

12. Don't count your waves before they hatch.

[SarcasticSatyr]

15. I have a feeling that young people, and women (even Republican women)

are going to give us, and democracy, a big win .... Abortion is the big issue, and women and young people are pissed .... and a big thanks to Taylor Swift, she is going to help deliver millions of young voters.

[ananda]

16. I've been thinking this way for awhile!

Still, we need to work a good ground game...

and GOTV !!!!!!!!!!!

[nuxvomica]

17. I think there's an especial disconnect in polling this year

This is just my two cents, but I think a lot of Republicans are responding to polls to show support for the party in the belief the party will get its act together by election day but when they get in that voting booth and they see nothing has changed, then the clown caucus is going to look like a pretty scary choice. I am not at all worried the party will get it's act together by then. So it's going to be "Yay for our team!" in the polls but "Holy shit! I can't let these squirrels run the country!" in the voting booth.

[Aristus]

22. This thread sure is a pleasant change from all the doom and gloom threads.

Thank you.

[lees1975]

23. Well, you're welcome

There's plenty of good news out there for Democrats, though the media, of course, loves the doom and gloom for their ratings.

I just don't get why so many in the mainstream media don't like Joe Biden.

Might as well be positive and optimistic, since all the issues are in our favor and the GOP now seems to be moving heaven and earth to lose in 2024.