Not enough Bears: Russia's Black Sea Fleet is pulling out of Crimea

[Beastly Boy]

On Monday, British military intelligence issued an update on the situation in the Black Sea. According to this, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is “struggling to deal with concurrent threats on the southern flank of the Ukraine war” and “fleet activities are likely relocating to Novorossiysk in the face of threats to Sevastopol”. Russia is now “attempting to use naval air power to project force over the north-western Black Sea”.

--snip--

This is quite big stuff. It would seem that the Ukrainians have more or less pushed the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol, its primary base, away to Novorossiysk on the other side of the Azov in pre-2014 Russia. Being able to use Sevastopol as a naval base is one of the main military reasons Russia needs Crimea. Another is to use it as a logistics hub, shipping in munitions and materiel for the land battle to the north.

It would seem, in the judgement of the British intelligence staff at least, that recent heavy strikes on Sevastopol – in which headquarters were blown up and docked warships damaged, perhaps beyond realistic repair – have made the port city untenable as a naval base.

That matters, because if the Black Sea Fleet can’t operate from Sevastopol its reach into the northwestern Black Sea, bordered by the Ukrainian southern coast with its still-Ukrainian harbours, is reduced. And that means that the Russian ability to blockade Ukraine, to keep ships from taking cargoes to or from those harbours, is degraded. Russia has withdrawn from the previous agreement which permitted Ukrainian grain exports, and is now attempting to cut them off.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/not-enough-bears-russia-black-141826592.html

This is the biggest victory for Ukraine since liberation of Kherson last year. While every Western pundit and their mothers are complaining of the slow pace of Ukraine's land counteroffensive, Russia fleet's retreat from Sevastopol goes unnoticed. WTF!

[FakeNoose]

1. Does this mean they're RETREATING back to Russia?

I certainly hope so. This is major news!

[Beastly Boy]

2. Yes.

According to the Brits, Russia is pulling their warships from Sevastopol in Crimea to Novorossiysk, a port on the Russian coast of Black Sea, which is about 200 miles east of Sevastopol.

[ffr]

3. In the context that most people would have thought Ukraine would fall quickly

the fact that they're fighting and dying to win back their lands.

This is terrific news though. It's a huge victory, one that might show Crimea fall eventually.

[Otto_Harper]

4. Its been said before,but bears repeating

The "Mighty Russian Navy" has been defeated by a country that doesn't even have a navy.

[cilla4progress]

5. Awesome news!

Not enough "bears"... ???

[Beastly Boy]

8. British humor, I guess...

[SleeplessinSoCal]

10. Aircraft

"Russian Bear-F Tu-142 Maritime Patrol Aircraft intercepted by RAF Typhoon fighter. Putin can't spare any of the big planes for the Black Sea, this time - RAF"

[Bev54]

6. I am almost certain Ukraine will commence an attack on Crimea within the next 1-2 months

They will take out the Kerch bridge, which is a must. It will not be a full scale, but they will get their foothold in there before winter.

[gab13by13]

7. Congressional Magats need to keep funding from Ukraine,

or Putin won't help get them elected.

Keeping aid from Ukraine is the #1 goal of House Magats.

The MSM isn't going to publicize this strategic Ukrainian victory when the Magat narrative is that Ukraine is taking too long, they need to see results, well there are results.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

11. There was definitely Hitler friendly media coverage in the 1930s and 40s.

But it wasn't mainstream. At least I don't think so. We didn't have tv, cable, internet and the plethora of news outlets we have today.

[Botany]

9. Didn't the Russian fleet just get hit by a drone attack

... not along ago?

Now will J.D. Vance join the Russian fleet. He is a
traitor.

[Warpy]

12. Not just a victory for Ukraine, it's a victory for the Middle East

because Sevastopol supplied them with port facilities for their mischief in Syria. Port facilities in Russia aren't nearly as developed.

The loss of two big ships plus the dry dock they were in for maintenance seems to have convinced Russia that the port can't be completely hardened and they'd better move what they've got left to Russia.

Yeah, my heart bleeds.

[prodigitalson]

13. this is a huge development alone represent a successful counter offensive

as the article points out, Sevastopol was basically THE strategic reason for the 2014 invasion.

The Ruskis are literally back to 2014 in terms of the Black Sea Fleet. They are going to lose Crimea. If not this year, the next.

[Martin68]

14. Success!

[electric_blue68]

15. 🌻🇺🇦🌻 Slava Ukraini! Really good news, ty!

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. Leave one occupied territory, build a base in another - Russia to build naval base in Abkhazia

Russia will set up a naval base in the separatist Georgian region of Abkhazia, its leader has told Russian media.

Aslan Bzhania told the Izvestia tabloid his Moscow-backed region would soon host a "permanent point of deployment" for Russia on the Black Sea coast.
...
Georgia's foreign ministry said it would be a "flagrant violation of Georgia's sovereignty and territorial integrity".
...
Since the Georgian-Russian war of 2008, Moscow has recognised it as an independent state. Georgia says Abkhazia is occupied by Russia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67017375

[Beastly Boy]

17. Still a developing story and no confirmation from Russia.

The Reuters story is based on Bzhania's interview with a Russian tabloid, and in it he only states: "We have signed an agreement, and in the near future there will be a permanent base for the Russian Navy in the Ochamchira region.", without citing it or specifying nature of the agreement, or the nature of the "permanent base" for the Russian navy, or the time frame for the project. His statement leaves a lot of room for interpretation.

I don't see much benefit for Russia in building this base: they already have one in Novorossiysk, much closer to the Ukraine front, Abkhasia is technically not part of Russia, the Caucus region that includes the proposed base is infamous for its inter-ethnic rivalries and conflicts, and it will cost a crapload of money to build it. Besides, agreements signed by Russia are not exactly known to be worth more than the paper they are written on.