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reggieandlee

(775 posts)
Sat Jul 4, 2020, 10:17 AM Jul 2020

BTRTN: Is Trump Going, Going, Gone?

Born To Run The Numbers provides its month-in-review for June which may prove to be the month in which Donald Trump's prospects for re-election were shattered:

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/07/btrtn-is-trump-going-going-gone.html

Excerpts: "Should Donald Trump lose his bid for re-election come November, the historians will point to June of 2020 as the inflection point. It was a month when Trump’s failures were laid bare, when relevant polling data moved materially downward, and when Trump veered from near irrelevance to near disappearance. The verdict on his management of COVID-19, the largest crisis of his presidency, is now clear, his economic recovery strategy -- the 're-opening' -- now giving way to 're-shutdowns' across the country. Trump also found an issue that made him part company with a significant portion of the Republican Party, when he chose a hard line response to nightly national protests for police reform and racial justice. Beyond these two seismic issues, Trump also stumbled, or was embarrassed, or flat out beaten on any number of issues in a breathtaking losing streak towards the end of the month...
"The Losing Streak. Apart from the disastrous rise of the coronavirus (and the threat to economic recovery) and the misfire on racial justice, Trump endured an incredible string of bad news, to wit... (1) The botched ouster of Geoffrey Berman, (2) The disastrous Tulsa event...the mobs never showed in Tulsa, unless they were disguised as empty blue seats, (3) The Supreme Court made three rulings, in quick succession, that horrified conservatives and repudiated the Trump Justice Department , (4) John Bolton’s long awaited memoir on his time in the White House was finally published, containing many stories of Trump incompetence and dysfunction..."
"The final punchline of Trump’s downward trajectory would be his defeat in November. And the picture – as of now – is grim, for him. According to our BTRTN models, Joe Biden would have an 82% chance of winning the presidency if the election were held today."

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BTRTN: Is Trump Going, Going, Gone? (Original Post) reggieandlee Jul 2020 OP
Not according to Politico Biden can blow it and MF45 can still win kimbutgar Jul 2020 #1
4 months is a long time hurple Jul 2020 #2
+1 kimbutgar Jul 2020 #3
A working vaccine would be great! Chemisse Jul 2020 #4

kimbutgar

(20,871 posts)
1. Not according to Politico Biden can blow it and MF45 can still win
Sat Jul 4, 2020, 10:58 AM
Jul 2020

That article made me want to puke. Between the Hill and Politico they are still cheerleading for him big time.

hurple

(1,304 posts)
2. 4 months is a long time
Sat Jul 4, 2020, 02:46 PM
Jul 2020

In politics.

Biden could still mess up and lose it, or trump could rally and win it.

For example, imagine a working vaccine released to the public in late September or early October...

Can't rest on the numbers, have to keep pushing for Biden as if he was 20 points in the hole!

Chemisse

(30,793 posts)
4. A working vaccine would be great!
Sat Jul 4, 2020, 08:01 PM
Jul 2020

But it won't save him.

Once people start to realize trump is a complete imbecile, they will see it everywhere. And he screws everything up. He would do something awful with the vaccine, like only offer it to people who could pay for it, for example, in a transparent effort to kill off poor people (who are disproportionately POCs). And he would accidentally reveal his reasoning, of course, to the horror of tyhe majority of voters.

What could save Trump is cheating. Voter suppression, closing key election sites, rigged machines, blackouts in reporting from Dem counties, etc.

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