What More Than 40 Years Of Early Primary Polls Tell Us About 2020:

[elleng]

*The 1972 Democratic primary field
Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

NAME RECOGNITION POLL AVG. ADJ. POLL AVG.
CANDIDATE 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1ST 2ND 1ST 2ND
Ed Muskie ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ 32.3% 24.5% 40.4% 30.6%
Ted Kennedy ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ 23.5 18.2 29.4 22.7
Hubert Humphrey ◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️ ◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️ 23.5 18.8 23.5 18.8
George McGovern ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◼️◻️◻️ 4.0 5.7 10.0 9.4
John Lindsay ◼️◼️◼️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ 4.4 6.7 7.3 8.3
Scoop Jackson ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ 0.4 2.8 2.0 7.1
Eugene McCarthy ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ 2.4 5.5 3.0 6.9
Birch Bayh ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.7
Harold Hughes ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.8
Samuel Yorty — ◼️◼️◼️◻️◻️ — 0.3 — 0.6
Bill Proxmire ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.4
Wilbur Mills ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4
J. William Fulbright ◼️◼️◼️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◼️◻️◻️ 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 . . .

The 1976 Democratic primary field
Candidates’ polling averages in the first half and second half of the year before the presidential primaries, plus an adjustment for name recognition

NAME RECOGNITION POLL AVG. ADJ. POLL AVG.
CANDIDATE 1ST HALF 2ND HALF 1ST 2ND 1ST 2ND
George Wallace ◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️ ◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️ 19.2% 20.0% 19.2% 20.0%
Scoop Jackson ◼️◼️◼️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◼️◻️◻️ 10.7 11.0 17.8 18.3
Hubert Humphrey ◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️ ◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️ 15.3 16.0 15.3 16.0
Ed Muskie ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ 8.3 10.0 10.4 12.5
George McGovern ◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️ ◼️◼️◼️◼️◼️ 7.8 9.5 7.8 9.5
Birch Bayh ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ 1.0 2.0 2.5 5.0
Lloyd Bentsen ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ 2.0 0.8 10.0 3.8
Fred Harris ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ 1.0 0.8 5.0 3.8
Jerry Brown ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ 0.7 1.5 1.7 3.8
Jimmy Carter ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◻️◻️◻️◻️ 0.8 0.5 4.2 2.5
Mo Udall ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ 1.7 1.0 4.2 2.5
Frank Church ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ 0.5 1.0 1.3 2.5
Sargent Shriver — ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ — 1.5 — 1.9
Ted Kennedy ◼️◼️◼️◼️◻️ — 10.3 — 12.9 —
Julian Bond ◼️◼️◻️◻️◻️ — 2.3 — 5.8 —
John Glenn ◼️◼️◼️◻️◻️ — 1.7 — 2.8 —
John Lindsay ◼️◼️◼️◻️◻️ — 1.7 — 2.8 —
Adlai Stevenson III ◼️◼️◼️◻️◻️ — 1.0 — 1.7 —

The 2020 Democratic race could be primed for a similar upset. The polls are currently split between two early frontrunners — still undeclared former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders — and it’s not yet clear if they will continue to sit atop the leaderboard, effectively blocking lesser-known candidates, or if their lead over the rest of the field will shrink as other candidates garner support, which could make the Democratic field look as wide-open as it did in 1976.'>>>

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-more-than-40-years-of-early-primary-polls-tell-us-about-2020-part-1/

[sagesnow]

1. It appears that McGovern came out of nowhere in 72 and

Carter, as well, came out of nowhere in 76. I remember very little about these primaries. I was non-political high school student in the 70's and occasionally attended Young Republican dances in the redneck neck of the woods I was raised in. Boy was I naive!

[elleng]

2. Exactly.

Neither do I remember the primaries, after college first job, + then law school.

[sagesnow]

3. I am guessing that voters in '72 and '76 were wanting a big change and

a Washington outsider to clean up the corruption. Who will best drain the tRump swamp in 2019?

[NoPasaran]

4. McGovern had thrown his hat into the ring late in the 1968 race

The biggest splash he made was Lowell Weicker's nominating speech at the 1968 convention: "If George McGovern was president there would be no need for gestapo tactics on the streets of Chicago."

He'd also gained notice as one of the authors of the McGovern-Hatfield Amendment in 1970 which would have cut off funding for the Vietnam War, so he wasn't completely unknown.

Perhaps most useful for him, he chaired the Democratic Party commission that rewrote the rules for nominating the candidate after what was seen as the debacle of 1968. So his campaign probably had a better understanding of how the rules worked than his rivals.