Trump's State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
Last edited Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:34 PM - Edit history (1)
*Map available at link at bottom.
"The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the presidents overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. Its not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.
"Civiqs shows the presidents net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just adults, so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
If you credit these polls at all, Trumps reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which wont be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.
"If the fourth scenario a win against all the evidence is Trumps best hope for reelection, hes the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, theres evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil dont have the collateral to pull that off twice.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/trumps-state-by-state-approval-ratings-should-scare-him.html
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212377141
msongs
(67,430 posts)elleng
(131,032 posts)Maybe Dems will show up in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois, and maybe the states will secure their voting equipment.
BlueWI
(1,736 posts)What about the rest of the country?
Posts of reassurance at this stage do the Democratic cause a disservice. Politics today are too volatile. Plus there are state and local elections to compete in, along with the House and Senate.
There are simply no certainties or even leads at this point. A full court press from now till November is the ticket.
lunasun
(21,646 posts)BigmanPigman
(51,618 posts)just to come out close to real election results WITHOUT Russian and GOP "interference". I think that is why no one listened to Bill Maher (and me) when he said tRump would win. They believed the polls. I kept hoping we were wrong though.
Cicada
(4,533 posts)So I am not sure his underwater job approval is decisive
Girard442
(6,082 posts)But then again, he never could. He ended up in the White House anyway.
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)Trump is running against "generic Democratic candidate". Once we get an actual nominee, that person's perceived weaknesses will be magnified greatly. That's why Trump isn't appearing to be worried.
BigmanPigman
(51,618 posts)Thekaspervote
(32,785 posts)TwilightZone
(25,473 posts)Plenty of people who disapproved of him voted for him in 2016. The same will occur in 2020. We need to keep that in mind and not put too much faith in approval ratings.
MFM008
(19,818 posts)To busy to help him win this time.
Blowing up their own people and all.