"Category 6": Mega-hurricanes becoming so strong they need new category, scientists say

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Salon

Published February 6, 2024 6:47PM (EST)


As the effects of climate change intensify tropical storms across the globe, a new study has proposed updating the category of hurricane strength to the currently used scale.

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study proposes any hurricane with winds sustaining 192 mph or more should be classified as a category 6 storm — an extension of the current scale "to communicate that climate change has caused the winds of the most intense (tropical cyclones) to become significantly higher."

The commonly used Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale was designed as a public communication tool to help people easily understand the relative risk of damage from oncoming storms in the 1970s. It currently lumps all hurricanes together into category 5 if they have winds exceeding 157 mph. But the researchers, a duo from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, argue that as hurricanes become more intense, the public need a better way to gauge each one's relative danger.

"Our motivation here is to reconsider how the open-endedness of the scale can lead to an underestimation of risk, and, in particular, how this underestimation becomes increasingly problematic in a warming world," the researchers wrote. "We find that a number of recent storms have already achieved this hypothetical category 6 intensity and based on multiple independent lines of evidence examining the highest simulated and potential peak wind speeds, more such storms are projected as the climate continues to warm .... Five of those storms exceeded our hypothetical category 6 and all of these occurred in the last 9 years of the record."

Read more: https://www.salon.com/2024/02/06/category-6-mega-hurricanes-becoming-so-strong-they-need-new-category-scientists-say/?in_brief=true

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Link to PUBLICATION - The growing inadequacy of an open-ended Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale in a warming world

[Mawspam2]

1. Which five hurricanes will be reclassified as category 6?

[LudwigPastorius]

2. Hurricane Patricia (2015 maximum sustained winds 215 mph)

Typhoon Haiyan (2013 msw 195 mph)
Typhoon Meranti (2016 msw 195 mph)
Typhoon Goni (2020 msw 195 mph)
Typhoon Surigae (2021 msw 196 mph)

[tornado34jh]

3. Getting to put a Category 6 tropical cyclone might be difficult to implement, especially in certain areas

If I had to guess, maybe Category 5 will go from 157-185 mph, and anything above that would be Category 6. However, it is important to note that different regions use different criteria. For example, in the Western Pacific, a Super Typhoon is any tropical cyclone that is above 150 mph (high-end Category 4 and Category 5 tropical cyclones). Also, many countries don't use the 1 minute sustained winds. Many countries use a 10-minute average.

Here's some information on how tropical cyclone scales are done in different countries and basins:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales

[Warpy]

5. They would most likely be extremely rare

and would likely be concentrated in the northern Atlantic, lucky us.

What might start to happen more often is what happened last year off the coast of Mexico, a storm going from a tropical storm to a Cat. 5 in a little over 24 hours. That is much more terrifying than a storm with higher winds that can b spotted in time for shelters to be set up and people evacuated from the coast.

Idiots, of course, will want boasting rights for partying during a Cat 6 and surviving. The good thing is that it won't happen often. Idiots will generally end up as dead idiots, the way they are during more frequent Cat 3-4 storms.

[tornado34jh]

6. The Pacific Ocean, especially in the western Pacific has a lot more warm water to go with

Typhoon Nancy in 1961 likely had 215 mph winds, the same as Hurricane Patricia. For comparison, the strongest Atlantic hurricane was Hurricane Allen in 1981 which had 190 mph winds. The strongest cyclone in Australia was Cyclone Monica in 2006 which had 180 mph winds (1-min sustained), Cyclone Winston was the strongest in the Southern Hemisphere, also at 180 mph. The strongest tropical cyclone in the Northern Indian Ocean was the 1999 Odisha Cyclone which had 160 mph, and in the southern Indian Ocean, it was Cyclone Fantala with 180 mph winds. So really if anything is likely going to be a Category 6 hurricane, it would most likely be the western Pacific, followed by the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific.

Even as strong as Hurricane Patricia was, the eastern Pacific has a relatively narrow range for a hurricane to be that strong. That's because of the cold currents coming in from Alaska that goes into California, so even despite a tropical storm recently hitting California, it's very rare. Really once it gets into northern Mexico it loses strength quickly, although that does change with El Nino. Even storms heading to Hawaii tend to miss either to the south or north and rarely make landfall.

[AZLD4Candidate]

4. They did it with tornados with the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Time to adjust for tropical cyclones.