ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 2,369,000 Jobs in June

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: ADP; Automatic Data Processing

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 2,369,000 Jobs in June

ROSELAND, N.J. – July 1, 2020 – Private sector employment increased by 2,369,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

{snip}

https://adpemploymentreport.com/2020/June/NER/NER-June-2020.aspx

2,369,000
CHANGE IN U.S. NONFARM PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT

CHANGE BY BUSINESS SIZE
Small
1-49 Employees
937,000

Midsized
50-499 Employees
559,000

Large
500 Or More Employees
873,000

CHANGE BY SECTOR & INDUSTRY

Goods-producing Sector
457,000

Natural Resources & Mining
-26,000

Construction
394,000

Manufacturing
88,000

Service-providing Sector
1,912,000

Trade, Transportation & Utilities
288,000

Information
-50,000

Financial Activities
65,000

Professional & Business
151,000

Education & Health
283,000

Leisure & Hospitality
961,000

Other Services
215,000

Note: All size data included in the ADP National Employment Report is based on size of business, defined as an entity with a unique Employer Identification Number, which may include multiple establishments. Sum of components may not equal total due to rounding.

Total Employment
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment



Historical Trend
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment



Change By Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size



Read more: https://adpemploymentreport.com/2020/June/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-June2020-Final-Press-Release.pdf

[BumRushDaShow]

1. This is a breath-takingly dramatic chart

(notably the comparison between the "Great Recession" time period and now)

ETA - more changes coming from that bounce soon -

Workers are getting laid off for a second time, as the virus’s surge puts reopenings on hold

By Eli Rosenberg and Abha Bhattarai
June 30, 2020 at 12:55 p.m. EDT


When she was first furloughed in March, Randee Heitzmann knew how to make ends meet. She deferred payments on her new Honda Civic, spent $3,000 in stimulus money and tax refunds on other payments, and drained her savings. Then she was called back to her job as a bartender at a cigar bar near Dallas for five weeks, taking home about $100 per shift, just 20 percent of what she was used to. But on Friday, Heitzmann was cut loose again, hours before her shift was to begin. “I don’t have any savings left,” the 28-year-old said. “I don’t know how long it’s going to be before I get a paycheck again."

Millions of American workers are suffering from economic whiplash, thinking they were finally returning to work only to be sent home again because of the coronavirus’s latest surge. Stores, restaurants, gyms and other businesses that reopened weeks ago are shuttering once more, and this time Congress appears less inclined to provide additional aid. Other companies that had banked on customers returning and restrictions lifting — such as hotel chains, construction firms and movie theaters — are seeing hours cut and reopening dates pushed back indefinitely as consumer demand stalls.

And many governors, including some who had drawn scrutiny for initially playing down the virus’s risks, are issuing new safety restrictions, in some cases just weeks after the first round of guidelines had begun to lift. In recent weeks, three states — California, Florida and Texas — have implemented new policies that partly restrict restaurant or bar service. Nine others — Arkansas, Delaware, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico and North Carolina — have postponed or slowed reopening plans.

Thousands of workers are caught in these rapidly shifting seas, many of them hourly and low-wage service employees, and are now facing unemployment for a second time. They say the past few months have been jarring: navigating unemployment in March, preparing to go back to work in April or May, and now confronting the prospect of another long stretch without a paycheck.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/30/back-to-work-laid-off-coronavirus-spikes/

[Hugin]

3. I've been extremely worried about those who's livelihoods depend on gratuities.

With the limited attendance of people returning to venues on top of ordinances placed on occupancy there's not enough traffic to cover their income.

It really is a case of paying-to-work. Forget the liability these workers have thrust upon them by the potential of lawsuits brought by customers they may accidentally infect because they can't afford not to work or get tested.

But, the Republican Governors are out from under unemployment insurance... So, all is well. It'll all fade away soon. We'll be eating cake before you know it. etc.

[DSandra]

8. Suffering and destroying lives are part of the Republican MO

They are worse than predators.

[Hugin]

2. I'm guessing most of this data was collected prior to any re-closings?

It's so volatile right now.

I've always felt that wages (and by extension, but, not always) payrolls were a leading indicator. This is based on the theory that if more people have money there is more economic activity subsequent to it.

Right now, well, I simply don't know.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. To supplement what you wrote, the other thing happening is this (also from WaPo)

The below is running parallel with the service sector jobs problem. I.e., the pain is being felt whether you are a hourly/gratuity-dependent worker or a salaried worker.

Pay cuts are becoming a defining feature of the coronavirus recession
Twice as many U.S. workers have had their pay cut during the pandemic than in the Great Recession.

By Heather Long and Andrew Van Dam
July 1, 2020 at 6:00 a.m. EDT


Denise Iezzi, an accounting assistant, has had every Friday off since the pandemic escalated in March. This isn’t by choice. Her employer cut her hours and pay. It’s an involuntary sacrifice that more and more workers are being asked to make. At least 4 million private-sector workers have had their pay cut during the pandemic, according to data provided to The Washington Post by economists who worked on a labor market analysis for the University of Chicago’s Becker Friedman Institute.

Workers are twice as likely to get a pay cut now than they were during the Great Recession, according to the group’s analysis of data from the payroll processor ADP. Salary cuts are spreading most rapidly in white-collar industries, which suggests a deep recession and slow recovery since white-collar workers are usually the last to feel financial pain.

Companies have also trimmed employee hours, leaving many hourly wage workers with leaner paychecks as well. More than 6 million workers have been forced to work part time during the pandemic even though they want full-time work, Labor Department data show. “I have Fridays off but I would rather have the money,” said Iezzi, who has seen her weekly paycheck at a New Jersey air conditioning business fall from $720 to $576.

Widespread pay cuts are highly unusual. In downturns, firms typically lay off workers rather than dealing with the administrative challenges and morale effects of slashing pay across the board. But as the United States faces the worst economic crisis since the Depression era, some business leaders have tried to save jobs by cutting pay between 5 and 50 percent. The median wage reduction was 10 percent, economists who worked on the Becker Friedman Institute study found.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/01/pay-cut-economy-coronavirus/

[progree]

5. I read somewhere ADP has the same survey period as BLS

I'm guessing most of this data was collected prior to any re-closings?

For the BLS survey period for payrolls (Establishment Survey) that's the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. The vast majority of pay periods are twice a month or every two weeks, some are weekly, a few are monthly or something like that. I've seen the percentages somewhere. Anyway, that means that the payrolls for this ADP report (and tomorrows BLS report) will mostly reflect the situation in the first half of June.

I've always felt that wages (and by extension, but, not always) payrolls were a leading indicator. This is based on the theory that if more people have money there is more economic activity subsequent to it.

I've found that payrolls are a lagging indicator by about a year. In general, the stock market is a leading indicator, followed by GDP and the declared ends of recessions and expansions, followed by payrolls.

For example for the housing bust, the stock market bottomed out in March 2009.

The recession ended and the expansion began in June 2009, 3 months later, according to the official arbiters of recessions and expansions, the NBER (what this means is that the bottom of the economy as they measure it occured in June 2009 -- recessions end and expansions begin at the very bottom).

The bottom of the jobs market was October 2009 (peak unemployment rate) or February 2010 (fewest total number of nonfarm payroll employees). The peak unemployment rate was 10.0%, but even in Feburary 2010 it was 9.9%, just 0.1% less, which is in the statistical noise area.

As for wages, it's weird. Usually when the job numbers go negative, surprisingly average wages increase. Last hired, first fired, anyway its usually the lower wage workers that are the first laid off. (On the other hand, total wages, as opposed to average wages, go down as there are fewer workers earning).

Right now, well, I simply don't know.

Me neither ... everything I've written above applies to normal recessions (and as far as what leads and what lags). This time, I don't know what's going on since it's so artificial if that's the right word -- government-mandated closings.

[LizBeth]

6. So, they count unemployment as employment keeping the number at 13.3% instead of projected 16.9%.

They now count those that went back to work as new hires to make job number higher.

[progree]

7. Payroll employment each month, either ADP or BLS, is simply the number collecting a paycheck

The change from one month to the next is simply the difference between this count in the two months. Has nothing to do with whether someone is classified by anybody as "new" or not.

The BLS unemployment rate numbers come from a separate survey, the household survey. In the past 3 months, some household survey takers misclassified some who were on temporary layoff as employed when they should have been classified as UNemployed. Thus the BLS admitted that their 13.3% unemployment rate in May should have been about 3 percentage points higher. (And similarly for March and April -- approximately 1% error in March and 5% error in April )

One place I wrote about this is at https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13560715

I'm shuddering to see tomorrow's BLS report if they still have this problem -- for the 4th month in a row.

[RussBLib]

9. fool is going to brag about adding 5.3 million jobs the last two months

while not mentioning the 40 million or so who lost their jobs when the shit hit the fan.

Biggest job gains in HISTORY!!

[Xolodno]

10. May and June...

...a lot of states were starting to slowly re-open. I suspect with the various bankruptcies go into effect, that number will reverse.