Amy McGrath just won her unexpectedly close Kentucky Senate primary

[George II]

Source: Vox

Retired Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath will face off against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell this fall, after winning a closer-than-expected primary against progressive challenger Charles Booker.

The primary proved to be a nail-biter up until the very end, with Booker and McGrath each pulling ahead at various stages of vote-counting. Booker dominated in Jefferson County, his home area around Louisville and a key area for Democrats. But ultimately, a weaker margin outside of Lexington wasn’t enough to make up McGrath’s showing in rural areas outside the two cities.

Despite election day in Kentucky being held on June 23, a crush of absentee ballots made it impossible to know statewide results until a full week later. Vox’s partner Decision Desk called the race on June 30, around 11:15 am. The week of delays could serve as a preview for the November general election, if it is close.

The Kentucky Senate race was one of the few June 23 primaries where a young progressive Black candidate didn’t surge to victory. Black candidates won a slew of victories in competitive House primaries in New York and Virginia on election night. But Booker still came much closer than most political experts inside and outside the state would have believed a year ago — or even a few months ago.

Read more: https://www.vox.com/2020/6/30/21301591/amy-mcgrath-kentucky-senate-primary-mcconnell

[still_one]

1. At least now we have a chance to unseat McConnel

[NurseJackie]

6. A long shot... but a MUCH BETTER shot.

[still_one]

8. Agreed

[Celerity]

61. the last poll taken before the election showed otherwise, but it is very hard to know off just the

one poll (it could well be an outlier, but there simply was not a lot of polling done with Booker in the mix), and both would/will have a very tough time. I hope she can pull it off. Booker beat her in the same day voting, but couldn't overtake her lead that she ran up in the mail-ins, many who voted before Booker started surging.



http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/6/ky/Civiqs_DataforProgress_KY_banner_book_2020_06.pdf

[yaesu]

17. I'm glad, every little bit helps, hope she beats McTurtle. nt

[Corgigal]

28. We have no shot.

Have you seen her actually run for any office? Save your money.

[still_one]

29. Who would of had a shot? and what are you saying, we should not have even had a candidate

[still_one]

31. I am for whoever the DEMOCRATIC candidate is in Kentucky. Aren't YOU?

As for you snarky remark about inviting her to MY area, I AM IN CALIFORNIA

and your comment about "anyone but McGrath", speaks volumes

[elleng]

33. Please explain.

[elleng]

36. Please explain 'she's awful.'

[lillypaddle]

38. Okay, you do you. BUT

why do you want to run against her? Can you at least keep your mouth shut? She is our candidate now. I voted for her. I live in KY, Lexington to be exact.

[StarfishSaver]

46. Wow

Was trash-talking Amy McGrath was worth getting four hides in the same thread?

[lillypaddle]

47. It wasn't me

[StarfishSaver]

54. I know!

[lillypaddle]

59. Gotcha nt

[Earth Bound Misfit]

58. That's close to a record! n/t

[George II]

73. Off topic, but I've been to Lexington dozens of times - one of the nicest, cleanest cities....

....in the country.

I used to drive down there (from NY) for opening weekend of the spring Keeneland meet every year. I then worked for a company with a supplier in Lexington. I just happened to arrange to visit them in either April or October. Funny how that worked!!

[GulfCoast66]

80. I got to go to the members club at Keeneland last year.

Dress code, free food and drinks, Private betting windows, access to trackside and the whole 9 yards. It was something. I felt like an infiltrator! Most of those people probably spend more in a month than I make in a year!

Lexington is indeed a nice place. I went to college there in the 80s when it was still a pretty small place.

Being from Louisiana the food kind of sucked, but got a life long love a bourbon!

And it is a blue city. My sister lives there.

[George II]

94. Of the 100 or so racetracks I've been to (yes, that's not a typo!) Keeneland...

...is one of my favorites. Always looked forward to April - opening day was like the first day of spring to me.

[FelineOverlord]

39. Those kids

Perhaps if Booker's team had promoted him more he would have won the primary.

To be honest, I never even heard of Booker until a few weeks ago. He seemed to come out of nowhere.

I never saw him even promoted on Twitter until the last few weeks.



He made a great late charge at the end, but apparently the rural votes did him in. A few more weeks and he might have pushed over the line.

It's going to be very tough to beat Mitch no matter who the Dem is but I hope Amy makes it!

Booker has a promising future! That was impressive. It was very close.

[oasis]

78. He can give Rand Paul a run for the money next time up. nt

[FelineOverlord]

102. He can give Rand Paul a run for the money next time up.

I would love for Rand Paul to be kicked to the curb.

[yellowdogintexas]

106. I think he definitely could do that.

If the next US Senate race is in 2024 he could make a run at a flippable Congressional seat in 2022.

Giving a strong unequivocal endorsement of Amy and campaigning for her will build a LOT of good will and exposure for whatever he does next. KY's next statewide race is 2023, so any statewide office below Gov & LtGov (already Democrats YAY Andy Beshear) could be a good option.

He has name recognition now, and if he follows Beto's campaign pattern, he'd have a good shot at that senate seat when it comes up. (2024 or 2022 ?) Not sure which. I have blocked all memory of when Aqua Buddha was re elected.

Kentucky only has 120 counties so he could hit every one of them multiple times.

[Thekaspervote]

53. Go Amy!!

[Barbara2423]

56. I agree.

That seat is lost to Democrats.

[The Magistrate]

62. Can't Lose What You Don't Have, Ma'am

In baseball, it makes sense to send a fella with a .333 average in to pinch-hit for a guy batting .250. Odds still are your team won't get a hit, but one in three is better odds than one in four. Rep. Booker had no chance statewide in a general election. Capt. McGrath might have one. It is that kind of a year.

[BlancheSplanchnik]

92. I donated to her, from Western NY!

I like her and I hope and pray she wins against Antichrist V.II!

[Skittles]

77. she is better than that piece of shit McConnell

that's all I need to know

[CrispyQ]

2. I'll definitely be sending some bucks to her this campaign season.

[ananda]

13. Same here!

I already sent her $50 before the primary.

Now I'll send more.

[Sucha NastyWoman]

21. Nows the time!

I never send anybody money in the primary, preferring to spend all my donation dollars where it counts the most.

[Boomer]

3. On my way to make another donation n/t

[still_one]

4. +++

[Me.]

5. Wexcellent!

[Bayard]

7. Here's the important part:

"McGrath’s showing in rural areas ". That's very encouraging. Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green will vote for the Dem candidate anyway.

[flor-de-jasmim]

9. That was also my thought.

[SergeStorms]

43. Hopefully.

We can't take the votes of POC for granted. I hope she and Booker get together, join forces, and campaign against Moscow Mitch so we can rid ourselves of one of the worst roadblocks to progress.

[totodeinhere]

10. I like Booker and I think he has a good future in politics. But...

If McGrath can be a stronger threat to McConnell then I think this is good news. McConnell must be defeated at all costs. Even if the Dems retake control of the Senate the way the Senate rules work the minority will have a lot of power, and McConnell has already said that he would stay on as leader even if it is in the minority. And I think the best we can hope for is a narrow Democratic margin in the Senate. I think it will take one more election cycle for us to get a firmer grip on the Senate.

[BComplex]

19. It was just a primary, but McGrath and Booker's vote totals taken together were higher than

McConnell's total by a country mile. So if all of Booker voters vote for McGrath in November, McConnell is toast.

[pandr32]

22. Encouraging!

[JudyM]

27. Those are primary voters only, though, as you noted. Big difference.

And he got 85% of the repug primary votes.
He’s still a huge threat.

[totodeinhere]

40. Well I hope so but historically, a contested primary usually get more votes than an uncontested one.

So Democrats were more likely to come out and vote since Mitch had only token opposition. The Civiqs survey from the week of June 13 had McConnell 20 points over McGrath. I think that's a bit much but at the very least that tells us that this race is no shoe in for McGrath by any means.

[BComplex]

41. I hope Kentucky Democrats come out in droves! I hope independents come out for McGrath in droves

And I hope every one of Booker's supporters come out and vote for McGrath. We HAVE TO get rid of mitch mcconnell. The future of our country depends on it.

[bucolic_frolic]

11. It's complex

I feel he was a candidate before his time and will be back again. She is a stronger gender candidate against McConnell than we ran last time, taking nothing away from anyone. But all must fall well for us to defeat Moscow Mitch.

[ananda]

12. Good!

I support her all the way!

[TheRickles]

14. Would it be too much to ask what the actual vote was?

The Vox story also omits that detail - was it 50.1%-49.9%, or 54-46, etc.? I'm not just being a math nerd, it'd be interesting to know just how big an impact an insurgent progressive candidate like Booker had.

[George II]

16. It's about 45-44.

[TheRickles]

18. That's only 89%. Do you have a link? Thanks.

[brooklynite]

24. McGrath 234,499 - Booker 224,874

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/23/us/elections/results-kentucky-senate-primary-election.html

[Celerity]

60. Here are the latest totals, McGrath overtook Booker w/ the mail-in ballots, many before he started

He crushed her in the same day voting (per MSNBC just now) in the key districts, but could not overcome her lead she ran up weeks before, as the same day voting totals were lower due to mail-ins.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/23/us/elections/results-kentucky-senate-primary-election.html

[TheRickles]

63. Thanks, BrooklynNite and Celerity. n/t

[Celerity]

65. yw!

[George II]

96. I think the live voting accounted for less than 20% of the totals. Wish I'd taken down the numbers..

...before yesterday's numbers came in. From memory I think both had about 40-50 thousand votes. Mail-in voting was huge.

[Celerity]

97. roughly 17% for all voters, both parties, were live votes

161,238 out of 957,877 total cast

16.833%


https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article243753282.html

Statewide, about 161,238 people voted in-person, which makes up just 14 percent of the projected 1.1 million votes in Tuesday’s election, according to the secretary of state’s office.

the 1.1m was a little high for the estimate


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky#Results_4

[George II]

98. Pretty good guess, eh?

I wish we could get to a point where virtually all voting is conducted by mail - that would severely cut down on voter suppression, voter apathy, weather conditions, etc.

It makes so much sense. I hope that once Biden is President and we have both houses that becomes a big priority, at least for national elections.

Look for Stacy Abrams to have a big part of this in the Biden administration.

[RussBLib]

55. how about actual vote totals?

I'm always curious who got how many actual votes in the election. In Texas recently, in the US Senate race, the GOP totaled 1.926 million votes among 4 candidates, and the Dems had 1.854 million for about 15 candidates. That's damn close. November will be interesting.

[yellowdogintexas]

104. Texas has an open primary, so both parties will cross over

for a variety of reasons. In a case with more than two candidates, a runoff usually results.

There is no way to conclusively tell how the numbers will look in Nov.

I have to use primary voting history to find Democrats in my precinct. I think I have more Democrats or Democratic leaning voters than my primary results indicate because of crossover (they think they are messing with the outcome on the R side) and folks who never vote in primaries.

In Texas, when you don't vote in your party's primary your party of choice can NOT identify you. It makes for a lot of extra work for a Precinct Chair; I have called these 'unknowns' and found they are hard core Democrats. I always tell them that if they consistently vote in D primaries we will not bother them nearly as much until we get down to GOTV time. (then I ask them to volunteer!)

[Politicub]

15. Congratulations to McGrath!!

Now it's time for McConnell to go.

[marble falls]

20. My first choice. I think she can beat Moscow's Mitch.

[Progressive Jones]

84. She's a veteran running against the leader of a party that abuses our veterans

while claiming to have their backs.

This fact alone needs to be driven home hard.

[R B Garr]

23. Great news!

[sheshe2]

25. 👍🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[Gothmog]

26. NBC News projects that Amy McGrath wins the Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary.

Link to tweet

[onetexan]

34. Yay!

Go Amy!!

[ashredux]

42. She has the best chance to unseat Mitch

[melman]

44. Amy McGrath

“Kentuckians voted for Donald Trump because they wanted to drain the swamp and lower prescription drug prices,” the Kentucky Democrat told The New York Times on July 9 when she announced her candidacy. “A lot of what has stood in the way of what Donald Trump promised is Senator McConnell.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/16/democrat-tries-to-take-down-mcconnell-by-comparing-him-unfavorably-to-trump.html



That's an interesting take.

[The Magistrate]

64. It's A Good Line For The Target Audience, Sir

Is there anyone who does not want lowered prices for prescription drugs?

Is there anyone who does want corruption in our government, the rule of lobbyists and business interests, curbed?

The line takes the stated motives of many for their casting a vote for Trump seriously, and so pays them respect as people. It is a good way to court them, a good way to court people who feel disrespected by a changing world. It seems to me a very clever approach, one which focuses discontent on her particular opponent, and presents Capt. McGrath as someone they can identify with.

Mr. Booker's attempt to distort this into claiming she was running to help Trump disqualifies him, in my mind, from support for any office, and he had damned well better walk that back with a whole-hearted endorsement if he wants much of a political future outside his state district.

[Gothmog]

82. Once again, I agree with you

I am very glad that Amy won. I just finish making donations to three Texas Democrats before quarter end and now I will be donating to Amy

[George II]

68. What's your point, are you not supporting our Democratic nominee for Senate?

[melman]

69. Oh look who's here

Do you plan to vote for Amy McGrath?

[George II]

70. "Oh look who's here"? Oh, look who's here:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142526911

[melman]

71. Who's there?

I'm not sure what you're getting at there. Sorry.

[George II]

72. Well, you appeared surprised that I was posting in this thread. So....

....are you not supporting our Democratic nominee for the Senate?

[Cha]

74. What is your point?

[betsuni]

76. It's called politics.

Like after the election when Senator Sanders said that if Trump had good policies, "I and other progressives are prepared to work with him" and that his voters weren't racist: "Donald Trump tapped into the anger of a declining middle class that is sick and tired of establishment economics, establishment politics and establishment media."

People think both sides are responsible for disfunction in government and it's important not to just be a candidate that's only "I'm not Trump, vote for me." Telling Trump voters that you want to get done the things they wanted him to do like fight the establishment and lower prescription drug prices is good politics.

[Cha]

79. Wow.. that's some quote from

him.. I can't EVEN!

I'm so Grateful Joe Biden is our Candidate!! There aren't enough positive words to express how much I appreciate James Clyburn, South Carolina Dems, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Beto O'Rourke & ALL The Dem Across this Country of ours!

Mahalo, betsuni!💙

[betsuni]

83. Yes, it's interesting.

[NurseJackie]

86. Wow. That's fucked up.

Thanks for sharing. These little tidbits help to paint a complete picture, but they're often forgotten and fall along the wayside for one reason or another. I think it's important to recall and discuss things like this in order for everyone to have a much clearer understanding of what has happened before, and how we got to here from there. I'm grateful that Joe Biden (and nobody else) is our party's nominee.

Also... congratulations and good luck to Amy McGrath!

[betsuni]

87. Yes, I agree. Here's more:

"It wasn't that Donald Trump won the election, it was that the Democratic Party lost the election. We need a Democratic Party that is not a liberal elite but of the working class of this country; we need a grassroots party where candidates are talking to working people, not spending their time raising money for the wealthy and powerful.

"And I think what Trump was able to do was pick up on the failure of the Democratic Party that did not talk about the fact that hard working decent people saw their jobs going to Mexico or China or people cannot afford to send their kids to college or afford child care or afford housing that they desperately need.

"I do not believe that most of those who are thinking about voting for Mr. Trump are racist or sexist."

The picture is very clear.

[NurseJackie]

88. That's disgusting. So cynical. So opportunistic.

It wasn't that Donald Trump won the election, it was that the Democratic Party lost the election. We need a Democratic Party that is not a liberal elite but of the working class of this country; we need a grassroots party where candidates are talking to working people, not spending their time raising money for the wealthy and powerful.

"And I think what Trump was able to do was pick up on the failure of the Democratic Party that did not talk about the fact that hard working decent people saw their jobs going to Mexico or China or people cannot afford to send their kids to college or afford child care or afford housing that they desperately need.

"I do not believe that most of those who are thinking about voting for Mr. Trump are racist or sexist."

That's disgusting. So cynical. So opportunistic. What good purpose does it serve to praise Trump (and those who voted for him) while at the same time getting in the not-so-subtle smears against the Democratic party like that?

The lies and smears and attacks only serve to create an atmosphere of negativity: Negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages voter turnout. Low voter turnout gives Republicans a chance to steal the elections.

[betsuni]

90. Yes, negativity generates apathy and cynicism, people think "both sides" and don't vote.

I don't understand why anyone would do this.

[George II]

95. Amazing, and he's still sending out fundraising emails from his presidential campaign....

Got one just yesterday.

[honest.abe]

93. +1

[honest.abe]

91. Why drag out this comment when the focus should be on defeating McConnel??

Sounds like you are trying to defeat McGrath.

[RhodeIslandOne]

99. It is a bizarre stance

Of course, I'm sure when Amy STRONGLY comes out in support of Joe Biden, our concerns will be eased about this quizzical wording.

I'm certain she will do this.

Certain.

......

[Gothmog]

101. These attacks failed and McGrath is the nominee and has the best chance of beating MoscowMitch

I will be donating to her campaign

[beachbumbob]

45. we have the best candidate that COULD win, Booker had zero chance in Kentucky

[Thekaspervote]

51. +1000

[RobertDevereaux]

48. I wanted Booker. I will support to the hilt McGrath.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

50. Good

[Thekaspervote]

52. I certainly hope that state senator booker will put all his weight behind her!!

Go Amy!!!

[AKing]

57. I'm glad she won. I think she has the better chance to defeat the turtle

[onetexan]

75. Amy & team need to do more campaign stumping in Louisville & Lexington to win over voters

I read someone posted she did not come to Lexington at all. I'm thinking possibly this was due to covid safety but this is Booker's stomping ground and he carried those cities.

[AZ8theist]

67. GOOD!

Now DESTROY the fucking Anti-American fucking turtle!!!

[GulfCoast66]

81. My sister lived in Lexington. She liked Booker a lot.

I personally did as well. Probably more than McGrath. But I’m a strategic voter. I would have voted for her.

Its Kentucky. They are not going to elect a progressive. I’ll be happy for any Democrat. Moderate included.

[betsuni]

85. K&R

[zentrum]

89. She outspent him 10 to 1.

Also, he was brave enough to openly walk with BLM demonstrators.

[Gothmog]

100. The DSCC went two for two yesterday

Link to tweet

[Hortensis]

103. Such good news. I wish people would remember

the enormous danger building on the right.

The step between being willing to kill hundreds of thousands of people with a killer virus out of partisan spite and rounding people up and shipping them off to die in concentration camps in the deserts is both huge and yet, for those people, very small. They're already mostly there.

[yellowdogintexas]

105. KY deadline for vote by mail is postmarked by Election Day. Thus delay in the count

Here in Texas, deadline is received by close of polls on Election Day. Our results come out much faster because everything has been received.

Our Ballot Board has already started verifications of VBM ballots received thus far for our run off, and will work on it daily until all the VBM have been counted. By the time polls have closed Election Night the numbers for Early Voting and VBM are pretty much ready to release by 30 minutes after polls have closed.

[George II]

107. That's the way to do it. Seems idiotic to not start counting votes received days or weeks earlier...

...until the polls close on election day.