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ffr

(22,649 posts)
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 01:23 PM Jun 2020

CDC: 20 million Americans thought to have contracted COVID-19

Source: MarketWatch

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said Thursday that an estimated 20 million Americans, about 6% of the population, have likely been infected with COVID-19, according to a nationally representative survey it conducted using blood samples. This figure, which takes into account asymptomatic people and those who were sickened but did not get tested for COVID-19, is more than eight times larger than the estimated 2.3 million tests that have been performed in the U.S. At least 122,000 people in the U.S. have died from the disease caused by the coronavirus, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cdc-20-million-americans-thought-to-have-contracted-covid-19-2020-06-25?mod=mw_latestnews



It's based on assumptions, well, since tRump cares more about statues than real live humans, we'll never know.

Testing.
Testing.
Testing.
23 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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CDC: 20 million Americans thought to have contracted COVID-19 (Original Post) ffr Jun 2020 OP
Next year we will find out with a new president................. turbinetree Jun 2020 #1
And meanwhile in New Zealand they now have zero cases Botany Jun 2020 #2
It's unlikely they now have had zero cases. Igel Jun 2020 #17
There are "shithole countries" with 0 deaths IronLionZion Jun 2020 #3
But I thought if we didn't test, no one would get the virus... nt Starfury Jun 2020 #4
Trump failed most of his tests in school IronLionZion Jun 2020 #5
well I guess bdamomma Jun 2020 #6
Those rich repukes who like to vacation the summer in Europe are going to be mad they can't kimbutgar Jun 2020 #9
unless bdamomma Jun 2020 #10
If you're rich in this world you can get anything you want. kimbutgar Jun 2020 #11
I really want to see bdamomma Jun 2020 #13
Me too! kimbutgar Jun 2020 #14
and we believe them? Anything connected with tRumps disastrous response cannot be trusted yaesu Jun 2020 #7
+1 ffr Jun 2020 #8
This makes sense when one Wellstone ruled Jun 2020 #12
We have a long way to go. Renew Deal Jun 2020 #15
Back of the envelope SpazzTheCat Jun 2020 #16
We should tell Republicans that sharing is socialism IronLionZion Jun 2020 #18
On the plus side, this means mortality is much lower than feared NickB79 Jun 2020 #19
If 6% of the population infected yields 125,000 dead NickB79 Jun 2020 #20
Only if immunity lasts. Pobeka Jun 2020 #21
Yeah, that's the scary part NickB79 Jun 2020 #22
Really, no one has any idea of what is happening DeminPennswoods Jun 2020 #23

Botany

(70,291 posts)
2. And meanwhile in New Zealand they now have zero cases
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 01:31 PM
Jun 2020

20 million cases of the Trump virus. So much winning.

Igel

(35,197 posts)
17. It's unlikely they now have had zero cases.
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 03:30 PM
Jun 2020

You can't uncatch it.

The 20 million aren't those currently infected and fighting the virus. It's the total number who have been infected. That number might go down because it's in error, but it won't go down as people recover.

bdamomma

(63,658 posts)
6. well I guess
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 01:38 PM
Jun 2020

the draft the EU compiled will not be a draft any longer, it will be indefinite that US travelers will not be permitted to step foot in Europe.


We need to get him out. ASAP

kimbutgar

(20,882 posts)
9. Those rich repukes who like to vacation the summer in Europe are going to be mad they can't
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 02:03 PM
Jun 2020

Take a cruise, stay on their private boats or villas in the south of France.

Or those rich kids who do a semester abroad.


kimbutgar

(20,882 posts)
11. If you're rich in this world you can get anything you want.
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 02:09 PM
Jun 2020

But it would be interesting if the EU says NO, no exceptions. Just to even piss of MF45 more.

yaesu

(8,020 posts)
7. and we believe them? Anything connected with tRumps disastrous response cannot be trusted
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 01:44 PM
Jun 2020

its been such a mess that no one knows what the real numbers are.

ffr

(22,649 posts)
8. +1
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 01:54 PM
Jun 2020

I see this both ways.

One to inflate the number of people who've contracted it so people feel more comfortable with perhaps getting infected...well, 18 million others have it too!

On the other hand, it means that a whole representative number of people out there are keeping the virus going and since 18 million didn't know they were carriers, if they die from it, they won't be counted that way.

 

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)
12. This makes sense when one
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 02:10 PM
Jun 2020

examines the Mathematical modeling. Early on estimates were in this range if and only if,methods were not taking to bend the curve.

By this time next year,we will have those scary body counts as fact.

Right now,the Media is so friggin afraid of doing their jobs because of the Trump Twitter Assassinations.

 

SpazzTheCat

(69 posts)
16. Back of the envelope
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 03:28 PM
Jun 2020

If you take the current 7-day average positivity rate for the US of 5.95% and apply that to the US population of 331M, you get a total number of infections of 19.7M. That is very much in the same ballpark as what the CDC is saying.

If you take our current number of deaths 115K and divided it by the 19.7M infected you get a mortality rate of .59%. This is probably also in the ballpark of the actual number. We know the current mortality rate of 4.88% is very overstated due to the small population of positive cases we have.

Current Positivity Rate: 5.95%
US Population: 331M

5.95% x 331M = 19.7M Infected
115K deaths / 19.7M infected = .59% mortality rate

IronLionZion

(45,261 posts)
18. We should tell Republicans that sharing is socialism
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 03:34 PM
Jun 2020

so they can fight against socialism by keeping it to themselves instead of spreading it.

NickB79

(19,114 posts)
19. On the plus side, this means mortality is much lower than feared
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 03:48 PM
Jun 2020

But thtaken again, a less lethal disease with very high communicability (bigger R-0) can still kill lots of people.

NickB79

(19,114 posts)
20. If 6% of the population infected yields 125,000 dead
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 03:53 PM
Jun 2020

That's roughly 21,000 dead/per percentage point.

That means we can expect around 1.5 million dead Americans by the time we reach herd immunity of 70% infected.

Pobeka

(4,999 posts)
21. Only if immunity lasts.
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 01:46 PM
Jun 2020

Recent study on 30 or so recovered patients show antibodies are not detected 2-3 months after recovery.

I'd track down the link if you like, it was here on DU a couple of days ago.

DeminPennswoods

(15,246 posts)
23. Really, no one has any idea of what is happening
Fri Jun 26, 2020, 04:34 PM
Jun 2020

because the novel coronavirus has only been around for less than 6 months. The data simply isn't there to do much more than hypothesize.

There is no good data on how many "asymptomatic" carries there are. UPMC testing of all patients visiting their hospitals/doctors shows it's 1 in 400 (based on testing 15,000 with PCR, not antibody tests). But who knows it that's true elsewhere?

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