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BumRushDaShow

(128,372 posts)
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:39 AM Jun 2020

Total of those receiving unemployment benefits falls below 20 million

Last edited Thu Jun 25, 2020, 09:52 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: CNBC

Jobless claims totaled 1.48 million last week as unemployment related to the coronavirus pandemic remained stubbornly high.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting 1.35 million claims. While the weekly numbers remained high and were worse than expectations for the second straight week, the total of those receiving benefits continued to fall. Total recipients, or continuing claims, fell by 767,000 to 19.52 million.

The most recent number marked the 14th straight week that filings remained above 1 million, a total first eclipsed for the week ended March 21. That was shortly after the World Health Organization declared the pandemic and much of the U.S. economy went into lockdown.

Claims had never been above a million prior to that. The coronavirus-era record is just shy of 6.9 million, hit in late March.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/weekly-jobless-claims.html



Looks like they decided to change the headline to do some spin (IMHO)...

Original headline - U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.48 million, vs 1.35 million estimate
17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Total of those receiving unemployment benefits falls below 20 million (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Jun 2020 OP
Oh, good, you got it. Thanks. mahatmakanejeeves Jun 2020 #1
I first got a NYT breaking BumRushDaShow Jun 2020 #5
In California, COVID-19 cases saw a stunning 69% jump in just two days, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wedn riversedge Jun 2020 #2
How many of those new cases are asymptomatic? at140 Jun 2020 #3
More aysmptomatic cases isn't "good news" BumRushDaShow Jun 2020 #7
How do you know for sure? at140 Jun 2020 #10
Yes BumRushDaShow Jun 2020 #11
That is not quantitative data, it is more anecdotal data at140 Jun 2020 #12
In response BumRushDaShow Jun 2020 #13
Good post, agree with most everything in this post! nt at140 Jun 2020 #14
This may be one of those "once in a century" events (like the 1918 pandemic) and we're it. BumRushDaShow Jun 2020 #15
Looks like things aren't bouncing right back doc03 Jun 2020 #4
Is the M$M still reporting fake numbers for the benefit of the King? Dopers_Greed Jun 2020 #6
Does this Dow Jones have numbers of those getting kicked off unemployment............. turbinetree Jun 2020 #8
You're not counted Igel Jun 2020 #9
Thanks turbinetree Jun 2020 #16
So much winning. nt doc03 Jun 2020 #17

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,283 posts)
1. Oh, good, you got it. Thanks.
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:41 AM
Jun 2020

Last edited Thu Jun 25, 2020, 09:14 AM - Edit history (1)

I didn't see anything. No one's reporting these anymore.

Whatever. Here's the DOL link:

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

News Release
Connect with DOL at https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, June 25, 2020

COVID-19 Impact


The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.
This report includes information on claimants filing Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and
Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation claims.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA


In the week ending June 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,480,000, a decrease of 60,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 32,000 from 1,508,000 to 1,540,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,620,750, a decrease of 160,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 8,000 from 1,773,500 to 1,781,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 13.4 percent for the week ending June 13, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous week's revised rate. The previous week's rate was revised down by 0.2 from 14.1 to 13.9 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 13 was 19,522,000, a decrease of 767,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 255,000 from 20,544,000 to 20,289,000. The 4-week moving average was 20,421,250, a decrease of 329,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 63,750 from 20,814,750 to 20,751,000.

{snip ten-and-a-half pages}

BumRushDaShow

(128,372 posts)
5. I first got a NYT breaking
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 09:04 AM
Jun 2020

but then it was embedded in its usual jumble of "Live updates" so I had to hunt for some other source that had something substantial enough to post (preferably not requiring a subscription), so CNBC came to the rescue!

riversedge

(70,047 posts)
2. In California, COVID-19 cases saw a stunning 69% jump in just two days, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wedn
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:45 AM
Jun 2020




?s=20


In California, COVID-19 cases saw a stunning 69% jump in just two days, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday. Florida also on Wednesday reported its highest one-day increase of coronavirus cases.

at140

(6,110 posts)
3. How many of those new cases are asymptomatic?
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:48 AM
Jun 2020

More asymptomatic cases is more good news than bad news. Because it means more an d more people will be producing anti-bodies.
The critical number to pay attention to is ratio of deaths/cases. If that number is decreasing it is very good. If it is increasing, very bad.

BumRushDaShow

(128,372 posts)
7. More aysmptomatic cases isn't "good news"
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 09:31 AM
Jun 2020

there is no correlation between being asymptomatic and production of antibodies. The "positive" results generally being reported are not from the results of antibody tests but by those (via PCR analysis) looking for the presence of the actual virus. And what they have been finding (the last I saw) was that for those who have produced antibodies (based on the antibody tests), these antibodies don't stick around very long and are apparently all but gone after a couple months, meaning the person might get infected again (and more cases are popping up where that has happened).

It's literally like the luck of the draw whether an asymptomatic person infects someone who can't produce antibodies and/or someone who has the types of underlying conditions that weaken them enough to cause symptoms (in some cases, extreme enough to require hospitalization) and/or those who are on medications (like my sister) that are designed to suppress the immune system.

The key metric to look at now, with all the testing going on, is the "positivity" rate - meaning what % of a set of tests being done (whether 100 tests or tens of thousands), are coming up positive. Current guidance has suggested the target of trying to get that under 5%. That percentage helps to determine the Rate of Transmission ("R0" ), where you want to have R0 <1 meaning 1 person infects "less than one person" (which buys time so hospitals aren't overwhelmed).

The "deaths" are going to be a lagging indicator, coming weeks after any hospitalizations, which themselves are a lagging indicator from a positive test. And because this virus is apparently undergoing an ebb and flow throughout the country (and even within states), "deaths" may drop for a period but then might suddenly surge again later, say after a re-opening "gone wrong" a month or so previously.



at140

(6,110 posts)
10. How do you know for sure?
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 10:54 AM
Jun 2020

Is there any data which shows absence of anti-body presence in any one infected, symptomatic or asymptomatic?

If getting infected by covid-19 does not create anti-bodies in any one, then we might as well forget about vaccines.
Because vaccines create anti-bodies in our body by injecting a weak form of the virus.

BumRushDaShow

(128,372 posts)
11. Yes
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 11:50 AM
Jun 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html

and not only that, there are now mechanisms in place for "antibody donors" who have been volunteering to donate plasma with antibodies to people who were severely ill and testing positive, but who were not producing the antibodies or were not producing enough of them to have any effect - https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/press-release/2020/collecting-convalescent-plasma-for-treatment-of-covid-19.html

The issue here is that this is a "novel" virus, meaning that although it fits the family of "coronaviruses", it is unique and they are still learning about it. I.e., it has been manifesting differently from other known coronaviruses in many patients.

For example, not everyone presents with a fever and some experienced gastrointestinal ailments and/or loss of taste while others did not. And now there is a whole other issue impacting some children currently dubbed "MIS-C" (Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children), where these children were testing positive for COVID-19, and started experiencing severe symptoms that mimicked or triggered Kawasaki Disease.

You also have young adults who have tested positive and have gotten severely ill and/or died due to having a "cytokine storm" (where the body triggers an extreme immune response and basically kills cells all over the lungs). That type of reaction happens to some as a response to certain influenzas but has become much more prevalent with COVID-19 in certain people. Still others (as in younger adults) were found to experience strokes that are unheard of in their age groups - manifesting as millions of tiny blood clots that formed around the COVID-19-infected cells that were migrating through their circulatory systems, and notably being deposited in the lungs. Doctors seeing this have also described finding what are called "ground-glass opacities" in the lungs. The most severe patients end up intubated and put on ventilators where there tends to be a 50% or less survival rate.

So this is impacting people very differently, partly because there are apparently mutations of it that have been found and are apparently circulating (and this phenomena is still being studied).

The vaccine problem (and any effectiveness) is the scary thing about this. I think some of the early attempts at making a vaccine to cover all (or at least most) of the "cornoviruses" in order to capture this one, haven't had success, and remember that even the yearly flu vaccines are not 100% effective. The issue is sortof spelled out here - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/why-we-might-not-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine

This is why before I go out the door today (have been trying for hours now), I will continue to "mask-up" and "glove-up" and then back in the house.

at140

(6,110 posts)
12. That is not quantitative data, it is more anecdotal data
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 12:14 PM
Jun 2020

only way we will know what PERCENTAGE of asymptomatic or symptomatic have created anti-bodies if EVERY person testing positive is tested for presence of anti-bodies.

It is entire probable some people never develop anti-bodies. There are people in India who had a 2nd attack of small pox virus! Although most people become immune for life. I am one of the fortunate one who survived small pox in India at age 8. Never needed vaccines later on and never had a 2nd attack.

BumRushDaShow

(128,372 posts)
13. In response
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 12:41 PM
Jun 2020
That is not quantitative data, it is more anecdotal data

only way we will know what PERCENTAGE of asymptomatic or symptomatic have created anti-bodies if EVERY person testing positive is tested for presence of anti-bodies.


And that is something that they may need to do and it may actually be possible down the road as they continue to develop and refine the tests.

It is entire probable some people never develop anti-bodies. There are people in India who had a 2nd attack of small pox virus! Although most people become immune for life. I am one of the fortunate one who survived small pox in India at age 8. Never needed vaccines later on and never had a 2nd attack.


It is a fact that not everyone will produce antibodies for whatever bacteria or virus they pick up. That's why vaccines have never been dubbed "100% effective". They can aim for them to be as highly effective as possible but they will never get there (at least in our era of how medicine is handled).

The fact that some colds are caused by rhinoviruses (most common) and others can be caused by some type of coronavirus, and there is no "vaccine for the common cold", should be a clue. People "catch colds" (although some claim they never do) and so with all the instances of that, we aren't immune from them.

When you are talking viruses, they are extremely difficult to deal with (you might recall there are some anti-viral treatments out there that supposedly reduce the symptoms of certain influenza viruses if used early on at onset (like Tamiflu and Relenza). But there aren't really any "cures".

And as a note related to something like small pox or even polio (another virus that was widespread) - these things have mutated over the decades so what might have worked as antibodies for an earlier form, are either only mildly effective or not effective at all for the newer versions.

For example what has happened with polio -

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/06/28/534403083/mutant-strains-of-polio-vaccine-now-cause-more-paralysis-than-wild-polio

and

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/nov/28/polio-outbreaks-in-four-african-countries-caused-by-mutation-of-strain-in-vaccine

Thus the need for boosters...

And what is also unknown at this time is what the effect might be later on in life by those infected by COVID-19 (including asymptomatic individuals). Chicken Pox (varicella-zoster virus) infection in a child (which would purportedly mean later "immunity" to it) can re-manifest as Shingles in adults, which is what triggered the development of a Shingles vaccine.

So really, there is no "for life". There is so much that we don't know but you have to go on and live life regardless.

doc03

(35,293 posts)
4. Looks like things aren't bouncing right back
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 08:57 AM
Jun 2020

for Trumpy. Trump will be bragging that he brought unemployment below 20, 000,000.

turbinetree

(24,683 posts)
8. Does this Dow Jones have numbers of those getting kicked off unemployment.............
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 09:38 AM
Jun 2020

and not being counted...........or have used up there claim benefit..............

Igel

(35,270 posts)
9. You're not counted
Thu Jun 25, 2020, 10:39 AM
Jun 2020

when you stop looking for work.

Not when your benefits have run out.

Plus federal unemployment benefits are backstopping states, and most states extended unemployment until the end of July whatever your status the day before the extension kicked in.

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