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brooklynite

(93,844 posts)
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:13 PM Jun 2020

Kentucky survey

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by Omaha Steve (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Civiqs/Data for Progress

1. If the election for U.S. senator from Kentucky were held today, and the candidates
were Mitch McConnell, Amy McGrath, and Brad Barron, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell, Republican 53%
Amy McGrath, Democrat 33%
Brad Barron, Libertarian 4%
Someone else 8%
Unsure 3%

2. If the election for U.S. senator from Kentucky were held today, and the candidates
were Mitch McConnell, Charles Booker, and Brad Barron, who would you vote for?
Mitch McConnell, Republican 52%
Charles Booker, Democrat 38%
Brad Barron, Libertarian 4%
Someone else 2%
Unsure 3%

3. If the election for president of the United States were held today, and the
choices were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?
Donald Trump, Republican 57%
Joe Biden, Democrat 37%
Someone else 5%
Unsure 1%

4. If you plan to vote in the Democratic primary election for U.S. senator from
Kentucky, who would you vote for? [Excluding response 'I will not vote in the
Democratic primary']
Charles Booker 44%
Amy McGrath 36%
Mike Broihier 4%
Mary Ann Tobin 1%
Someone else 4%
Unsure 11%

Read more: http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/6/ky/Civiqs_DataforProgress_KY_banner_book_2020_06.pdf



I have stayed out of KY-SEN because I don't engage in Primaries out of State. I've previously stated that McGrath would have a huge challenge beating McConnell. If Booker wins the Primary, I'll comfortably write this off as unwinnable.
33 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Kentucky survey (Original Post) brooklynite Jun 2020 OP
Ugggh Mike 03 Jun 2020 #1
we don't understand what's going on in that state bucolic_frolic Jun 2020 #2
Part of what I don't understand leftieNanner Jun 2020 #3
Well..... BigOleDummy Jun 2020 #12
It truly is a sad state of affairs leftieNanner Jun 2020 #15
Indeed BigOleDummy Jun 2020 #17
I think he is more dangerous than the Idiot. leftieNanner Jun 2020 #19
Lol.... BigOleDummy Jun 2020 #27
I moved here Corgigal Jun 2020 #6
I haven't lived in Kentucky for years, but it has a lot of different groups. Lonestarblue Jun 2020 #21
Very interesting demographic info bucolic_frolic Jun 2020 #24
Not a reliable poll JT45242 Jun 2020 #4
dailykos banner always seemed like repug propaganda to me samsingh Jun 2020 #10
That was my thought - and it's 16 points out of sync with the latest real poll I've seen. lagomorph777 Jun 2020 #25
I agree. Unwinnable. murielm99 Jun 2020 #5
Ok, Corgigal Jun 2020 #8
I am glad to hear your viewpoint. murielm99 Jun 2020 #20
Sssssh. Corgigal Jun 2020 #22
Agree! Sanders and aoc track record for picking winners is nonexistent Thekaspervote Jun 2020 #30
From other things I've read about McGrath/McTurtle, I rate this FAKE NEWS KS Toronado Jun 2020 #7
Amy McGrath Takes Narrow Lead Over Mitch McConnell in Kentucky Senate Race, Poll Shows lagomorph777 Jun 2020 #26
This poll is highly suspect. Just Remember 'Dewey Wins!' Tommymac Jun 2020 #9
thanks-- I know a Dem beating McConnell is a long shot but this poll seems abnomrally skewed red LymphocyteLover Jun 2020 #14
Not buying this Bayard Jun 2020 #11
To be fair... phandancer917 Jun 2020 #32
This is depressing in the extreme. How reliable is this pollster? LymphocyteLover Jun 2020 #13
Not depressing at all. We know we have a hard fight in Kentucky. Tommymac Jun 2020 #16
Dems need to move to Kentucky. LogicFirst Jun 2020 #18
We have Corgigal Jun 2020 #23
AND.... BigOleDummy Jun 2020 #28
Interesting. Corgigal Jun 2020 #31
The Quinnupiac poll that covers the same period shows Biden up 8 points nationwide csziggy Jun 2020 #29
After a review by forum hosts....LOCKING Omaha Steve Jun 2020 #33

Mike 03

(16,616 posts)
1. Ugggh
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:15 PM
Jun 2020

bucolic_frolic

(42,663 posts)
2. we don't understand what's going on in that state
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:27 PM
Jun 2020

is it a racist patriarchy mentality? wealthy elite horse farms and whiskey network? I have no idea. Last time I floated such questions on here I think they told me the state survives because they build automobiles and America buys them.

has our party dissected it demographically, economically, broken it into voting blocs? If this poll proves true we're not making much progress. or any progress.

leftieNanner

(14,997 posts)
3. Part of what I don't understand
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:30 PM
Jun 2020

Is that Moscow Mitch is this far ahead and yet his unfavorable numbers are huge. He is one of the most disliked Senators in his own state, and yet he skates to victory every time.

SMDH

BigOleDummy

(2,260 posts)
12. Well.....
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:52 PM
Jun 2020

Well..... I live in the Louisville metro area. Have family in the outer suburbs and in the rural part of the state. All I can tell you is that outside Louisville and ..... maybe parts of Lexington, I have never in my life seen such racist and undereducated people in my life. Yes, I'm afraid that means my family too. We don't speak much anymore if at all since Mom died last September. All Moscow Mitch has to say is "socialist" and they are foaming at the mouth here. Its HARD to go into a McDonalds or other fast food establishment outside of Jefferson county and not be subjected to Fox "news". As long as Mitch has that (R) after his name he will win. Period. Yeah, you would be hard put to find anyone saying ANYTHING good about him but he's a (R) holding the line against communists and "Libtards" and that's all that's needed around here.

It really fills me with sadness to see so many in here seemingly put so much hope in Ms. McGrath and now Mr. Booker tbh. Neither has a chance in hell I'm sorry to say. I have not overheard even ONE conversation outside of Jefferson county (Louisville) where either was mentioned with anything but contempt and sarcasm. Yes, people finally came to their senses enough to elect a Democratic governor here but that's more a reflection on just how truly and spectacularly putrid the last (R) governor was than anything else. If our hopes of taking the Senate rests on removing McConnell we are screwed.

I take no satisfaction in saying this but I've spent a good portion of my life in Kentucky so know a bit of what I speak.

leftieNanner

(14,997 posts)
15. It truly is a sad state of affairs
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:03 PM
Jun 2020

"He may be a toxic asshole, but he's OUR toxic asshole."

And the way he has gotten his wife to shovel Transportation Department money into Kentucky certainly hasn't hurt him.

My fervent wish is for him to lose in November. My more sensible desire is for him to go back to being minority leader.

BigOleDummy

(2,260 posts)
17. Indeed
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:32 PM
Jun 2020

I mean...... miracles happen I suppose but ..... well I don't even know what to say anymore tbh. Minority leader would be just fine with me. In fact, a part of me... a small bitter part I suppose would even LIKE to see him reduced to minority status. Watch his contortions and apoplexy as we do to HIM what he's done to us lately. I think I detest him as much as I detest our chump in chief.

leftieNanner

(14,997 posts)
19. I think he is more dangerous than the Idiot.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:36 PM
Jun 2020

Idiot doesn't know (doesn't care) how government is supposed to work. Moscow Mitch certainly does and he has used that advantage to make sure that it does not work properly.

It's difficult for me to understand him at all. I guess I'm naive to think that someone can't be THAT cruel and THAT Machiavellian.

BigOleDummy

(2,260 posts)
27. Lol....
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 02:47 PM
Jun 2020

... if you only knew how close I was to writing pretty much your exact words Yes, he's definitely more dangerous than our chump in chief. As you said the occupant is too dumb to know any better and as such he's the perfect tool for the slimier elements of the "right". Ole Moscow Mitch on the other hand may be venal, vile and veracity challenged shall we say but he's no idiot. He KNOWS what he is doing and likes it and profits by it. A more hateful human being would be hard to dig up.

Corgigal

(9,291 posts)
6. I moved here
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:37 PM
Jun 2020

3 years ago. I’m going to say it again, and I live in a blue area with a big arts push town, no one here will confess to voting for Mitch.

I have no idea who votes for him. Maybe, it’s because kentucky people think having that power means something to them. It doesn’t, he never votes for the average people of Kentucky. We have our elite rich, like all states, but not enough of them.

I’m going to vote anyway, and I know Mitch tries to screw over the college students. He screwed over my sons voting several years ago. He can’t anymore.

I don’t see the middle class as more racist here, but maybe they hide it better.

I voted for Booker. He appears to want it more, and a better street fighter. However, if Amy gets it, then I will vote for her.

Lonestarblue

(9,878 posts)
21. I haven't lived in Kentucky for years, but it has a lot of different groups.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:49 PM
Jun 2020

The central part of the state, from Louisville and over to Lexington and points south, is the better educated, wealthier area. This is wealthy thoroughbred horse farm country. This region also has a mixture of manufacturing (cars, bourbon, horse-related businesses), soldiers stationed at Fort Knox, and numerous small farms. Louisville and Lexington tend to be the more Democratic areas, though even these areas are conservative in nature, especially when it comes to social issues—and of course the wealthier ones want to pay as little in taxes as possible.

The far eastern part of the state is coal mining and the poverty of Appalachia. Out-of-work miners went for Trump big time in 2016 because they believed his lie of bringing back the coal jobs. The older generation here is somewhat stuck because jobs are scarce, but no one is moving in to buy their homes, and they don’t have the money to pick up and move elsewhere. This area tends to have fewer people with college degrees. And some without high school. They are ultra conservative and not really open to many new ideas.

The western part of the state has some tourism lure with Mammoth Cave. It is also home to Fort Campbell. It used to be characterized by small to medium manufacturing businesses, though I’m not sure about that today because the state lost a number of small manufacturers in the Great Recession.

In and around these areas are tobacco and other farms. Kentucky is second only to North Carolina in the amount of tobacco grown. Farmers tend to be conservative, and many of them earn just enough to get by. They have bought the idea that Democrats will always raise their taxes and hurt them financially.

Overall, Kentuckians are a socially conservative lot, and it’s a state filled with half a dozen evangelical churches even in small towns. I believe they vote on social issues far more than economic issues, even though they’re one of the poorest states and could use economic help.

So that’s my long-winded way of saying that it’s highly unlikely that McConnell will lose regardless of who his opponent is. He has always had low approval ratings in the state, but he manages to win—no one really knows whether he does so fairly since there have long been rumors. Our best best at sidelining McConnell is to take back the majority and demote him from Majority Leader.

bucolic_frolic

(42,663 posts)
24. Very interesting demographic info
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:58 PM
Jun 2020

Thanks for taking time and insight. So the larger businesses and institutions keep the populace from learning much or changing much as elites set the tone and way of life. It would take an exogenous event to help people or change minds.

JT45242

(2,173 posts)
4. Not a reliable poll
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:35 PM
Jun 2020

These things have bothered me for a while but today for the first time I clicked on their link to check out how they come up with their “data”. Turns out that civiqs is an online polling company that polls people who choose to sign up. These types of polls have accuracy issues as 538 has stated.

If Daily Kos is going to have a polling data banner at the top of the page couldn’t we at least be provided accurate data from reputable sources? Preferably multiple data compilers like 538 and RCP.

If Civiqs is a paid add could we at least have it stated clearly “ADVERTISEMENT — civiqs is an online polling company that only polls people that sign up to be polled”.

From https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/1/19/1827622/-About-the-Inaccurate-Civiqs-Polling-Data-at-the-Top-of-Daily-Kos

This is a website that has consistently given more pro-Trump numbers than other polls.

I would be wary of anything from this opt in online poll that recruits via the internet (could very selectively advertise on Pro trump pages)

samsingh

(17,571 posts)
10. dailykos banner always seemed like repug propaganda to me
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:45 PM
Jun 2020

i stopped going there because of those polls that made no sense.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
25. That was my thought - and it's 16 points out of sync with the latest real poll I've seen.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 02:05 PM
Jun 2020
https://www.newsweek.com/amy-mcgrath-takes-narrow-lead-over-mitch-mcconnell-kentucky-senate-race-poll-shows-1509691

Democratic senatorial candidate Amy McGrath appears to have a very narrow lead over Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky's race, according to a recent poll.

The polling, which was conducted by RMG Group, shows McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot, with the support of 41 percent of voters, while McConnell is backed by 40 percent. However, the polling also showed that when voters are informed that McGrath supports congressional term limits while McConnell does not, her lead over the Republican jumps significantly.

With the candidates' positions on term limits factored in, McGrath was backed by 45 percent of respondents, while McConnell was supported by just 30 percent. But 17 percent of those surveyed were still undecided, and 8 percent said they'd vote for a different candidate.

murielm99

(30,656 posts)
5. I agree. Unwinnable.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:37 PM
Jun 2020

Bernie Sanders can't show up to vote, but he can endorse in an out-of-state primary. AOC trots around the country, and ignores her own district.

Anyone those two endorse is automatically suspect with me.

I can't imagine Kentuckians voting for anyone endorsed by Sanders.

Corgigal

(9,291 posts)
8. Ok,
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:44 PM
Jun 2020

I’m not a Sanders supporter. I don’t care what either of those two people think. Were not all idiots and do what others from other states want us to do. No state does.

I voted Buttigieg, and now I vote Biden. You see a million dollar commercial with Amy, trust me, she’s a weak candidate. I Didn’t want her to be, she just is. Our Democratic Party should have looked around for a stronger candidate. I hope, if Booker win, he won’t stay in the lines. I want him to fight dirty, and attack ancient Mitch.

murielm99

(30,656 posts)
20. I am glad to hear your viewpoint.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:38 PM
Jun 2020

I do not think all of you are idiots. I get tired of people bashing the South.

I live in a blue state, but in a very red area. The ignorance is shocking here, too.

I supported Buttigieg as well. I hope he has a place in a Biden administration. He is our future.

Good luck down there. I wish you the best.

Corgigal

(9,291 posts)
22. Sssssh.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:55 PM
Jun 2020

Don’t tell my neighbors, but I’m a New Yorker.

I still don’t mind living here. We have a great Democratic Governor. It shows, were not as partisan as some states. I lived in Florida when it was all Democratic. Good times.
South Carolina, well I gave up there. Voted against Lindsey Graham, every time.

Thekaspervote

(32,606 posts)
30. Agree! Sanders and aoc track record for picking winners is nonexistent
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 04:08 PM
Jun 2020

KS Toronado

(16,901 posts)
7. From other things I've read about McGrath/McTurtle, I rate this FAKE NEWS
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:37 PM
Jun 2020

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)
26. Amy McGrath Takes Narrow Lead Over Mitch McConnell in Kentucky Senate Race, Poll Shows
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 02:08 PM
Jun 2020
https://www.newsweek.com/amy-mcgrath-takes-narrow-lead-over-mitch-mcconnell-kentucky-senate-race-poll-shows-1509691

Democratic senatorial candidate Amy McGrath appears to have a very narrow lead over Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky's race, according to a recent poll.

The polling, which was conducted by RMG Group, shows McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot, with the support of 41 percent of voters, while McConnell is backed by 40 percent. However, the polling also showed that when voters are informed that McGrath supports congressional term limits while McConnell does not, her lead over the Republican jumps significantly.

With the candidates' positions on term limits factored in, McGrath was backed by 45 percent of respondents, while McConnell was supported by just 30 percent. But 17 percent of those surveyed were still undecided, and 8 percent said they'd vote for a different candidate.

Tommymac

(7,263 posts)
9. This poll is highly suspect. Just Remember 'Dewey Wins!'
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:45 PM
Jun 2020

If it depends on those who sign up voluntarily on the internet, then those numbers are not surprising.

The internet trends libertarian. Economically disadvantaged have a lot less access then those with $$.

We still have a long way to go - and Kentucky is not lost yet.

LymphocyteLover

(5,601 posts)
14. thanks-- I know a Dem beating McConnell is a long shot but this poll seems abnomrally skewed red
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:00 PM
Jun 2020

Bayard

(21,802 posts)
11. Not buying this
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:52 PM
Jun 2020

McGrath is running neck and neck with McConnell in every other poll I've seen here. And she's getting tons of money.

She's going to spank McConnell the same way Beshear did Bevin.

phandancer917

(145 posts)
32. To be fair...
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 05:46 PM
Jun 2020

...we did not Spank Bevin -- that was a squeaker. However -- our state would have been a MAGA COVID shitshow if Bevin was still in office.

Now, I will say there is a GROWING interest in Mr. Booker. He has new endorsements from Major papers and Matt Jones (local-ish celebrity that was flirting with entering the race) and is gaining traction.

I like Amy McGrath, but I am looking at Mr. Booker as well. Sending in absentee ballot tonight - will probably tick off McGrath.

I think that either candidate should be able to beat Mitch.

LymphocyteLover

(5,601 posts)
13. This is depressing in the extreme. How reliable is this pollster?
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 12:58 PM
Jun 2020

Tommymac

(7,263 posts)
16. Not depressing at all. We know we have a hard fight in Kentucky.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:07 PM
Jun 2020

And Hard Fights bring out the BEST in the American People.

This ain't over by a long Kentucky furlough.

LogicFirst

(571 posts)
18. Dems need to move to Kentucky.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:35 PM
Jun 2020

Corgigal

(9,291 posts)
23. We have
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 01:58 PM
Jun 2020

a Democratic Governor, we’re here. Just got to show up, and whoever runs against Mitch must bring up his dirty laundry. Daily.

BigOleDummy

(2,260 posts)
28. AND....
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 03:01 PM
Jun 2020

Get some reliable poll watchers in western Kentucky. He was neck and neck the last time around too..... until the results came in from the western part of the state. Very suspicious but ...... everyone just let it ride. My whole extended family, what's left of us anyway, live from Owensboro over to Paducah and a redder area is hard to imagine but his margins there were insane.

Corgigal

(9,291 posts)
31. Interesting.
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 04:54 PM
Jun 2020

Plus. He screws the college kids over with voting too. I always wondered how Mitch won...I mean really.

Need way more lawyers to help.

csziggy

(34,120 posts)
29. The Quinnupiac poll that covers the same period shows Biden up 8 points nationwide
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 03:36 PM
Jun 2020

While the Civiqs poll shows Trump ahead by 20 points. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

June 18, 2020 - Biden Ahead Of Trump By 8 Points In Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Nearly 6 In 10 Support Vote By Mail In November Quinnipiac University Polling Logo

If the election for president were being held today, former Vice President Joe Biden would receive 49 percent of the vote and President Donald Trump would receive 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today. This compares to a May 20th national poll when Biden led Trump 50 - 39 percent. In today's poll, Democrats go to Biden 93 - 4 percent and independents are split with Biden at 43 percent and Trump at 40 percent, while Republicans go for Trump 92 - 7 percent. There are wide gaps among gender, race, and education groups:

Women back Biden 59 - 33 percent, while men back Trump 51 - 38 percent;
Black voters back Biden 82 - 9 percent, Hispanic voters back Biden 57 - 31 percent, and white voters back Trump 50 - 42 percent;
White voters with a college degree back Biden 57 - 35 percent, while white voters without a college degree back Trump 59 - 33 percent.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3664


There seems to be a bias there.

ETA - a note - the demographics say a lot:
Civiqs:
http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/6/ky/Civiqs_DataforProgress_KY_banner_book_2020_06.pdf
Party ID
Democrat 20%
Republican 43%
Independent 37%

Quinnipiac:
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us06182020_demos_usqd25.pdf
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 25%
Democrat 33
Independent 34
Other/DK/NA 7

Omaha Steve

(99,061 posts)
33. After a review by forum hosts....LOCKING
Thu Jun 18, 2020, 06:28 PM
Jun 2020

Not a proper format for LBN. Raw survey, as opposed to an article in MSM reporting on a survey.

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