The Latest US Coronavirus Death Predictions Are Even Worse Than Expected Before

[Judi Lynn]

Source: Agence France-Presse


AFP
20 MAY 2020

Coronavirus-related deaths among Americans are projected to surpass 113,000 by mid-June, a modeling average released Tuesday showed, underlining the US status as the nation worst affected by the pandemic.

The United States has recorded more than 1.5 million confirmed COVID-19 infections and 91,600 fatalities as of Tuesday, but a projection compiled from nine models from separate institutions predicted roughly 22,000 more Americans would succumb to the disease over the next 25 days.

"The new forecast for cumulative US deaths by June 13 is about 113,000, with a 10 percent chance of seeing fewer than about 107,000 and a 10 percent chance of seeing more than 121,000," the COVID-19 Forecast Hub at the University of Massachusetts said on its website.

The specific ensemble forecast average is 113,364 deaths by that date.

The latest projections come as most US states take steps - some minor, some more substantial - to re-open their shuttered economies and communities while facing the challenge of instilling confidence among Americans that it is safe to begin returning to normal.

Read more: https://www.sciencealert.com/models-suggest-us-virus-deaths-could-top-113-000-by-mid-june

[tulipsandroses]

1. Hey, at least its not 200,000

We are doing great!Greatest we have ever done.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

10. Not 200,000, at least not by Jun 13.

By election day, we may wish it had only been 200,000.

There will be shortages of chloroquinine, lysol, UV lamps.

[LudwigPastorius]

17. "Many people are saying it probably would have been over 500 million without my...

Last edited Wed May 20, 2020, 01:59 PM - Edit history (1)

travel ban on Chaiee-Nah. My response was probably the greatest response in history to an invisible enemy since Lincoln defeated the Confederate Ninja brigade."

[marble falls]

20. Yet.

[Brainfodder]

2. I swear basic arithmetic is their kryptonite?

You can use a generic spreadsheet program and plot this out with relative ease?

[not fooled]

3. "Reality is whatever we say it is"

yeah, math, numbers, and facts are their enemy.

[Maxheader]

9. Who,

What, where? I think numbers don't matter a lot to many..imho..Tough times,

Just when the people in charge sound like they have a handle on it...BANG! Change..

It's a bitch.. We need food..we need the people in the food chain to satisfy us..in all countries..

The world governments need to keep those guys protected with the best..administration, pros..

The best tech support, In Kansaas a large portion of the corona disease has been in slaughterhouses

down in the s.w. part of the state..

[Scarsdale]

13. This country's largest

"slaughterhouse" is in Washington D.C. The tRump administration has no clue whatsoever what should have been done earlier. Our lives mean nothing to them. Richest among us count, the rest of us do not. There is not a single member of this administration who gives a DAMN about regular people. They are all busy lining their pockets. How much of a stake does tRump have in this dangerous medication he is pimping out??

[Joe Mauriceovich]

4. Start Opening the Economy

It'll be great for the funeral home and casket-making businesses!

[Scarsdale]

14. Ivanka has a trademark

on caskets from Jyna.

[Botany]

5. We are gonna pass WW I in total deaths soon

116,000.

[BigmanPigman]

6. Dear Leader would have said, "They were young and didn't have much to lose, no big deal".

[Ford_Prefect]

7. I don't mean to be pendantic about this but the numbers I read tell a different story: 126,000

I don't doubt we will exceed them. The world is likely at this point to exceed any of them.

A Univ. of Washington Study has suggested anywhere from 350,000 to 1.2 million US deaths by the end of this year. https://democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2496892


[link:|

[Botany]

8. You might be right ... either way the #s are and will be staggering

American losses in World War I were modest compared to those of other belligerents, with 116,516 deaths and approximately 320,000 sick and wounded of the 4.7 million men who served. The USA lost more personnel to disease (63,114) than to combat (53,402), largely due to the influenza epidemic of 1918.

https://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/war_losses_usa/2014-10-08

[duforsure]

11. And that's while trump has them hiding the real numbers

Imagine what the real numbers would show against trump. Trusting trump to allow the truth of the real numbers to expose him is a joke , he won't , ever. Just like if he started a war , he'd lie and prevent anything true from coming out, and like he is doing with this.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

12. The June 13th projection is 122,000...

... for the most accurate (in the USA) model to-date:
https://covid19-projections.com/#view-projections

The 95% confidence interval is about 106,000 to 143,000 for June 13th.

[nitpicker]

18. That's about in line for my more optimistic thinking

Over the last week, the US added about 10000 deaths, or about 1400 a day.

1400 times 25=35K.

Added to 92K as of this morning, that makes 127K.

((OK, knock off 1400 for the extra day))

BUT the uncertainty is in whether or not CV kills at the same rate as recently seen.

[certainot]

15. repubs used ebola in 2014 to turn 9 sen seats. must investigate covid delay was intended

limbaugh spent half his shows in oct 2014 drumming up the fear and muelller report subject jerome corsi spent much of that oct writing about it. it all stopped after the elections. one j=ourno called it the repubs october surprise

it worked and limbaugh had started it for 2020 but then they got eboa under control in congo. then covid came along and trump's guy limbaaugh spent 3 months calling it a hoax, leading 1500 radio stations doing it too.

then they switched to WORK! you low wage scum, WORK!

trump's so stupid he thought it was something they could control. they're going to use it to ramp up election interference anyway

[aggiesal]

16. As Pendejo45 said during his party's convention acceptance speech ...

“... The most basic duty of government is to defend the lives of its citizens. Any government that fails to do so is a government unworthy to lead.“
Full transcript here

Probably the only time I’ve ever agreed with him!

[NickB79]

19. Worldometer says 93,500 as of today.

Probably hit 95,000 by Thurs morning, 5-20-20.

We'll break 100,000 by this weekend.

113,000 in 3 weeks is still lowballing it. 120,000 is more realistic.

[bucolic_frolic]

21. Pandemic response requires rules and discipline and political competence

These are no longer US strengths, and the chaos of the current administration make the response even worse. So yeah bodies will keep piling up with no end in sight. This is the new normal.

I went to the supermarket today. First time in 3 weeks. In stock items are a little improved from last time, but about only 10%. Haven't seen a 5 lb sack of whole wheat flour in six weeks. But I did find lentils in Walmart, and baking chocolate chips too. There was a little beef today, and margarines. And string bean seeds! even if they are a bit pricey.