Infectious Diseases Experts Foresee COVID Reaching 60-70% Of Population In 2 Years

[turbinetree]

Source: Talking Points Memo

By Cristina Cabrera
|
May 1, 2020 3:23 p.m.

Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director at Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, had some bleak news about the future of the COVID-19 pandemic on Friday.


During an interview on CNN, Osterholm explained a report he and his colleagues at the university had released early in the day, which found that the virus will likely keep spreading for 18 to 24 months until it reaches the high threshold of COVID-19 cases needed to create a herd immunity.

“This is going to continue to do that until 60% or 70% of the population has been infected,” the doctor told CNN anchor Jim Sciutto.

Osterholm warned that the pandemic is a “rolling situation” throughout the world and that New York, which currently has the highest number of cases in the U.S. by far, won’t be the only area to suffer an explosion of infections.


Read more: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/infectious-diseases-experts-foresee-covid-reaching-60-70-of-population-in-2-years

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While on the other side of the fence the country is watching suicide squads storming capitals.............

[Newest Reality]

1. And the virus says:

"We want to thank those who have made our tour possible and those who are striving to continue our reproduction. We couldn't do this so well without your help and if we could, we would certainly vote for Trump in the next election. Be seeing YOU!"

Paid for by the Covidiots for Viral Transmission Committee, a subsidy of AstroTurf Industries and Expendable Human Resources, Inc.

[lapfog_1]

2. Assuming remdisovir cuts CFR in half (and there isn't evidence of this)

and no effective vaccine is widely available for the next 1.5 years.

Using th 60% number... this is still 14,400,000 people dead in the next year and half.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. Yes, from the beginning

comparing 1918 to 2020, those large numbers are perfectly within the realm of possibility

[genxlib]

6. I'm not sure what you are using for CFR

But that seems high based on what we know. You seem to be comparing tested cases to death cases. But the real CFR has to include all the people that don't get officially diagnosed. That would include people who got sick but never got confirmed as well as the asymptomatic.

My best guess right now is that the real CFR is around 1% which would put the death totals for 60% penetration at 2 million. A drug that decreased that to half would be 1 million.

[lapfog_1]

8. I used the currently accepted 1.5% CFR

and cut that to .075% with widespread usage of intravenous remdisovir.

here is the math.

320,000,000 x .6 (low end of the infection estimate) = 192,000,000 infections

192,000,000 x .075 (attenuated CFR) = 14,400,000

[genxlib]

12. You lost a decimal point

Half of 1.5% =.75% = .0075

So you ended up with a factor of 10 too high. Would be 1.4 million which is line with what I was calculating at 1%

[lapfog_1]

13. oops yup... I do math for a living so this is embarrasing

oh well... I was very tired today...

[genxlib]

15. No worries

Happens to me more than I like to admit. As an engineer, it can get me into a lot of trouble if I’m not careful.

You may be interested in the numbers I was running the other day. New York has an antibody test study that says about 25% of the city and 15% of the state has been exposed. When I ran out the numbers of deaths to nationwide, it lands right in the same 1.5 to 2 million range.

[Shermann]

3. Really not news

Anyone following the science closely has known of this distinct possibility since the beginning.

This isn't a shot at the OP, it has been all over the MSM today.

[RhodeIslandOne]

17. Right at the start of this they said 70% will likely eventually be infected

In mid March they were saying it....

[Shermann]

22. I've noticed this with CNN

There will be a dire but credible prediction from a pundit early on, and they are fairly nonplussed about it.

Then a few weeks later it suddenly looks a bit more likely, and they are ZOMG!! BREAKING NEWS!! about it.

They did this with the 100,000 possible deaths in the US a few weeks ago.

[roamer65]

5. 1918-1920.

It took nearly 3 years for that bug to “burn out”.

[rocktivity]

7. With a national mass testing program, it doesn't have to

Last edited Fri May 1, 2020, 06:07 PM - Edit history (3)

By testing everyone regularly and properly quarantining the infected and contagious, the herd immunity of the un-social distanced uninfected could do the rest.

As of now, we don't have a vaccine, antidote, or cure. But we do have a mass testing method which is not inexpensive, not invasive, and easy to reproduce:
https://yourhhrsnews.com/nj-mass-covid-test


rocktivity

[sheshe2]

9. The protestors with their signs.

Live Free Or Die are going to get their wish, they will die and take far to many of us with them.

[jimlup]

10. That is true if we don't get a vaccine

I'm pretty sure of it.

At 62 I'm going to hide out as long as I can hoping that we get a vaccine. I'm going to be double more careful than the average 31 year old.

[politicaljunkie41910]

16. You and me both. Since this all began, I've been staying home except to go to the store for

essential items. I have a heart condition, and I don't want to end up in the hospital on any ventilator. I am retired and before this all began I was preparing to start a new job. I had applied for a job out of boredom and also because of the decline in the stockmarket and thought that with the suddenness of the Stock Market drop, I couldn't be guaranteed that my Retirement Account would last as long as I had anticipated if we had a couple of more jolts like this to the Stock Market. And yet I didn't want to remove my money out of the stock market because I knew that the Market would eventual recover, and as long as I didn't touch my account, the money would recover if I left it alone. As long as the losses were just on paper, the losses would be recovered as the Market recovered. (Fingers Crossed). If I began removing what was left of it from the Market, that would solidify those Market loses. Right now they are just paper loses and the S&P has already recovered a good chunk of the decline from earlier this year.

[jimlup]

19. Good luck to you!

My portfolio was fairly diversified and conservative so when the market took the hit, I didn't suffer too much. I solidified my losses at the beginning of the week making my investments even more conservative because I think the market will retest those initial lows and then more slowly than the capitalists anticipate - recover. I'm betting on the long haul.

Best of luck and hang in! We'll make it.

[DeminPennswoods]

11. In 2 or 3 years there will be something

else we are told to be very afraid of.

[Initech]

14. Yeah a MAGA coup against President Biden

I wouldn't put it past those cretins.

[VarryOn]

18. No doubt, you're correct there'll be something else...

But, I hope to hell we've all learned some things that will make everyone of us more prepared in how to respond.

I'll admit I've always been one of those who was amused by people who kept a stockpile of various items (mostly food). Next time something like this happens, we will be more prepared. I want to be set up so the family could withstand a few weeks of no commerce if we saw a really crippling pandemic or other bad situation.

[DeminPennswoods]

20. I think this epidemic is a 1 off event

due the combination of the worst possible person occupying the Oval Office, an unrestrained (until 2018) GOP living their fondest dream of shrinking the federal govt, grifters/yes-men/incompetents/users in just about every decision-making adminstration position and, of course, Jared.

[VarryOn]

21. Incompetence abounds...

We should be thankful Republicans cut their teeth on this one. We've learned tons that will help us handle better. We will have a high bar, for sure.