'I operate on the data and on the numbers': Cuomo responds to Trump ventilator claims

[mia]

Source: NBC


Andrew Cuomo is pushing back on President Donald Trump's assertion that New York doesn't need the tens of thousands of ventilators the governor has requested to meet the coronavirus health crisis.

In an interview on Friday with "NBC Nightly News" anchor Lester Holt, Cuomo said of the president, "I hope he's right."

"I hope no one gets sick," Cuomo said. "I hope no one needs a ventilator. But — I don't operate on what I hope or what I would like to see or what my expectation is. I operate on the data and on the numbers and on the science. And every projection I have, from multiple sources, and these are worldwide health experts, say that we have to be prepared for an apex of 140,000 hospital beds and 40,000 ICU beds with ventilators."

"I don't believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators," Trump said....



Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/i-operate-data-numbers-cuomo-responds-trump-ventilator-claims-n1170636

[Jim__]

1. I guess Pence will have to stop calling Cuomo. He's not appreciative enough.

We have a national crisis and a complete fool in charge.

[Igel]

3. He's operating on the model.

The data are, note the tense. He's working off the future--that makes it a model, and not data.

The models' numbers have error bars, probabilities. Just as we're not good at distinguish data from predictions, observations from inferences, we're not good at probabilities.

[Blues Heron]

4. That's why we need to err on the side of caution

[DeminPennswoods]

5. Yes, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

had a story about FRED, the University of Pittsburgh's forecasting program. It was a good read and actually said what some of the numbers were that were used in the forecast. One number was a 20% mortality rate from CDC data that is probably outdated now that there is hard data on the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

Link: https://www.post-gazette.com/news/health/2020/03/27/COVID-19-coronavirus-University-Pittsburgh-hospitalization-FRED-pandemic-model-case-study/stories/202003230067

For now, he said 100,000 statewide hospitalizations remains an accurate possible prediction, based on multiple factors used in FRED analysis — the currently known behavior of the virus, school and business closures, infection rates to date, the extent of social distancing and population characteristics, among others.

Dr. Roberts said there’s hope that further action can drive that prediction downward. The results also used original data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that 20% of people who get the infection will require hospitalization. But more recent data from New York City and early results from Allegheny County make that percentage seem high, he said.

To date, Allegheny County has had 133 cases and 20 hospitalizations — a 15% hospitalization rate.

Cuomo could probably do himself a favor by citing what parameters the models are using, but ymmv.

[markpkessinger]

6. What you say is true, but . . . .

. . . .the fact is most people aren't that precise4 in their use of these terms.

But not all models are equally good or equally bad. The model he is using is one developed by the CDC, and is based on a combination of current data and the experience of both China and Italy. It's not as if it's just some number he pulled out of his ass.